Re: Disappointed, very
 

According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division.

However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games. That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage, which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams.

Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie:

Win-loss % within division:
Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie.

Win loss % in common games:
Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie.

Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns.

So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out.

Re: Disappointed, very
 

Yeah said it before SP is horrible and has lost a couple games.

Re: Disappointed, very
 

I know you're trying to give it a positive spin, but every year one person or another makes the comment that when we lose to an AFC team, there are no tie breaker implications. That is technically true, but it still counts exactly the same in the standings. If it were college, and we had lost a non conference game, you can say "well we didn't lose any ground in the conference standings". But that's not how NFL standings work, as we know.

We've now lost four very close games. You can't keep blowing opportunities to win games. That's my perspective.

Re: Disappointed, very
 

My mojo was all wrong when I got up Sunday. I was not happy putting on my gear that morning because I knew deep down inside we would find a way to lose this game. I knew it down in my soul. It's sad but true! :brood:

Even though we scrapped and clawed our way back I never felt anything but fear and desperation. I've been a Saints fanatic waaay too long to assume we would win before the clock ticked down to zero.....and then I've seen time put back on the clock when there was no time left.

I've seen the balls bounce our way during the Super bowl run and I've seen them bounce the other way the rest of the time. Right now I don't get excited about a turn over because some how we will find a way to give the ball right back to the opponents.

Sometimes I actually feel like we are cursed. I really believed that Katrina had washed our sins away. But nay! Nay I say!!! I'll still fly my flag and proudly wear my gear but inside I am ashamed.

7-9........again?

Re: Disappointed, very
 

I accept your challenge to analyze these tiebreakers.
That of course is at the moment. My analysis operates on 2 presumption:

1. The Saints go 4-0 down the stretch in the division.
2. No NFC South team finishes with an overall higher record.

All bets are off if neither of these hold true.
Higher up the chain. head to head is the first tiebreaker. Division record is the second. Under my conditions, the Saints finish 5-1 in the division. Atlanta already has a loss, and beating Carolina and TB sweeps them both. So under my two conditions the Saints has the best division record and no NFC South team ahead of them head to head or in the division or in the overall record. That's gives them the NFC South no matter what anyone else does.
If the Saints go 4-0 in the division down the stretch, then no one else will have a 5-1 division record. Tie broken at division record. If the Saints are 5-1 in the division then Atlanta can be no more than 4-2 as they have a loss against the Bucs and Saints.
Which is exactly what playoff caliber teams are supposed to do.

SFIAH

Re: Disappointed, very
 

It doesn't count the same in the standings. It's way down the list in terms of tiebreakers within the division and conference after the 1st tiebreaker of overall record.

Once overall record is out of the way, it's common games before non conference games come back into play. Wins head to head with a division/conference opponent and games within the division/conference are ahead of common opponents. In short division losses and conference losses are much more devastating than a non conference loss.


That makes perfect sense. The Saints would be better off with wins against the Raiders, Giants, and Broncos and taking the loss they should have against San Diego. I'm not sure KC qualifies as a "close loss".

But the bottom line is that even with the losses, the Saints are as well positioned as anyone else in the division.

My perspective is that if the Saints cannot win their 4 remaining division games at the very minimum, then there is no point in discussing the playoffs, close losses or not.

SFIAH

Re: Disappointed, very
 

After reading your response and re-reading my post, I see I made a mistake.

If we assume the Saints beat the Panthers tomorrow and the Clowns in January, the Saints and Clowns records will be equal on the head to head, but not for division losses, as losing to the Saints would mean a division loss for the Clowns. I did not count that as a division loss... duh!!!

So my bad. You win :bng: