Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

SaintFanInATLHELL · 05-02-2017, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by ScottF

You are correct as always, Professor, but...
wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5?
there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido

would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

AsylumGuido · 05-02-2017, 05:05 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line.

Yes. It is art.

05-02-2017, 04:43 PM	#1
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,783	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by ScottF You are correct as always, Professor, but... wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5? there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5 I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house. So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better. But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

05-02-2017, 05:05 PM	#2
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house. So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better. But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line. SFIAH Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line. Yes. It is art.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

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