Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

SaintFanInATLHELL · 05-02-2017, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by ScottF

You are correct as always, Professor, but...
wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5?
there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido

would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

05-02-2017, 04:43 PM	#31
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,781	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by ScottF You are correct as always, Professor, but... wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5? there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5 I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house. So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better. But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

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