Defense vs offense

WillSaints81 · 05-20-2017, 02:55 PM

When it comes to the defense it is what it is. It has to prove it on the field first no matter what. There is no point in arguing over it. But when you sit through many games where the offense is ineffective at moving the ball for entire first halves and three fourths of a game being held to 10 points or less, that is going to be a bigger concern for me.

So it may not be the case next year with the schedule, it does not undo the fact it has been in the past two-three years. No improved defense is going to beat every good offense. We have the worst games for Brees on top of a game or two like that to go with division games. If our run at playoff success hinges on 4-2 and 5-1 division records every year, then we are in trouble. Against three improved teams in a give and take division that's not going to happen. That's why outside opponents are crucial.

|Mitch| · 05-20-2017, 03:09 PM

WTF are you talking about?! We had the #2 offense scoring 469 points last season, behind only the Falcons who scored 540.

We were ranked second also with 29.3 points per game...

We had the 31st ranked defense; 32nd ranked against the pass(273.8 ypg) and 14th against the run(101.6 ypg)...

Which one is the bigger problem?

For someone who claims to be all about the stats, you sure seem like less than even a casual fan

neugey · 05-20-2017, 06:20 PM

AllSaints · 05-20-2017, 09:29 PM

Go Away !!!

WillSaints81 · 05-20-2017, 11:07 PM

Originally Posted by |Mitch|

WTF are you talking about?! We had the #2 offense scoring 469 points last season, behind only the Falcons who scored 540.

We were ranked second also with 29.3 points per game...

We had the 31st ranked defense; 32nd ranked against the pass(273.8 ypg) and 14th against the run(101.6 ypg)...

Which one is the bigger problem?

For someone who claims to be all about the stats, you sure seem like less than even a casual fan

This is what I mean by a casual fan. You point to stat padding statistics.

Btw, no team put up the kind of points the saints did in any first half. That is why the stats make little sense because they evened the bad ones with big ones and when I pull up the first half totals I'm gonna prove it. Here's your stats you have been asking for.

I don't know the totals straight up but here's a rough estimate.....
180 total first half points
among those against Oakland, Carolina, SF, LA, Arizona, and TB
114.........Those six games accounted for over half and less than 2/3 of the total first half points.

Just over a third remaining for the other ten games.

What is the average ppg with those six games? 19
What is the average ppg with the remaining ten? 6.6
Overall average combined? 11.25

If the defense improved, it would maybe move the average up to 10 ppg in the first half in those ten games. That's still below average.

source: my calculator

BAM!

Now those 469 points equals out to 29.32 ppg

The points scored against Oakland, Carolina, SF, LA, Arizona, Atlanta, Atlanta, and San Diego that consisted of 30+.....280. The other eight games consisted of 189.

The 280 average out to 35
The 189 average out to 23.63.

What would a better defense do? Put Lutz on the field more to attempt field goals, and he had some ugly ones that went through.

You're also assuming that the offense can afford to have bad first halfs and win in the second with a improved defense...in other words becoming a team winning from behind, something we are not known for. You are virtually assuming that points can occur anytime. And if the falcons scored 17 in the first half instead of 28, and the saints scored 13 instead of 10, the saints would win 35-27? In other words Atlanta still scores 10 points in that second half and does not score any in the fourth? No.

How many less points does Detroit score with an improved defense? I would say 10 so 18. Saints would maybe move up to 16 points.

We need improved oline and defense both.

Seer1 · 05-20-2017, 11:40 PM

Do you have a bunch of Detroit players on your fantasy team as well? Every time you spout off you compare us to them. Seriously, you really need to discover sex so you can fantasize about that instead of about thinking you know anything about football, communicating or being smarter than everyone else. How about this, what's a good cure for a hangover?

AsylumGuido · 05-21-2017, 09:01 AM

Originally Posted by WillSaints81

This is what I mean by a casual fan. You point to stat padding statistics.

Btw, no team put up the kind of points the saints did in any first half. That is why the stats make little sense because they evened the bad ones with big ones and when I pull up the first half totals I'm gonna prove it. Here's your stats you have been asking for.

I don't know the totals straight up but here's a rough estimate.....
180 total first half points
among those against Oakland, Carolina, SF, LA, Arizona, and TB
114.........Those six games accounted for over half and less than 2/3 of the total first half points.

Just over a third remaining for the other ten games.

What is the average ppg with those six games? 19
What is the average ppg with the remaining ten? 6.6
Overall average combined? 11.25

If the defense improved, it would maybe move the average up to 10 ppg in the first half in those ten games. That's still below average.

source: my calculator

BAM!

Now those 469 points equals out to 29.32 ppg

The points scored against Oakland, Carolina, SF, LA, Arizona, Atlanta, Atlanta, and San Diego that consisted of 30+.....280. The other eight games consisted of 189.

The 280 average out to 35
The 189 average out to 23.63.

What would a better defense do? Put Lutz on the field more to attempt field goals, and he had some ugly ones that went through.

You're also assuming that the offense can afford to have bad first halfs and win in the second with a improved defense...in other words becoming a team winning from behind, something we are not known for. You are virtually assuming that points can occur anytime. And if the falcons scored 17 in the first half instead of 28, and the saints scored 13 instead of 10, the saints would win 35-27? In other words Atlanta still scores 10 points in that second half and does not score any in the fourth? No.

How many less points does Detroit score with an improved defense? I would say 10 so 18. Saints would maybe move up to 16 points.

We need improved oline and defense both.

I ignored everything else you wrote after these inane remarks ...

Here's your stats you have been asking for.

I don't know the totals straight up but here's a rough estimate....

If you are going to pretend that you understand stats you have to actually use them, not estimate.

WillSaints81 · 05-21-2017, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by Seer1

Do you have a bunch of Detroit players on your fantasy team as well? Every time you spout off you compare us to them. Seriously, you really need to discover sex so you can fantasize about that instead of about thinking you know anything about football, communicating or being smarter than everyone else. How about this, what's a good cure for a hangover?

I don't spend all day on this board. I have a life. Most of my posts come in one time frame. Sex has nothing to do with seeing what the others don't with this offense's ineptitude in ten games. Again 6.6 ppg in ten games in the first half!

And do you know if you are not married, sex is a sin? If you told that to a religious single person, you would answer to God.

|Mitch| · 05-21-2017, 11:48 AM

Originally Posted by WillSaints81

I don't spend all day on this board. I have a life. Most of my posts come in one time frame. Sex has nothing to do with seeing what the others don't with this offense's ineptitude in ten games. Again 6.6 ppg in ten games in the first half!

What's it matter when the points come? If you have a defense holding teams to say 17 ppg and then I feel that as good as our offense is ranked (#2), we could put up 20(29.3) points even if they all came in the second half...

SaintFanInATLHELL · 05-21-2017, 01:35 PM

I see that "the analyst" is trying to make a point about the lack of consistency of the offense. But I believe what he is missing is that lack of consistency is even more pronounced in the defense.

I'm not going to break down scoring by halves. But let's dump last years games into a few rough buckets to see any trends. Three categories:

+ : 30 points or greater for offense, 20 points or fewer for defense
- : 20 points or fewer for offense, 30 points or greater for defense
= : between 20 and 30 points for both offense or defense.

Raiders: +-
Giants : -+
Falcons: +-
Chargers: +-
Panthers: +-
Chiefs: ==
Seahawks: =+
49ers: +=
Broncos: ==
Panthers: -=
Rams: +=
Lions: -=
Bucs: -+
Cardinals: +-
Bucs: +=
Falcons: +-

The offense went 9-4-3 (+,-,=) while the defense was 3-6-7. There were exactly 0 ++ games and exactly 0 -- games. As shown there were exactly 3 games where the Saints held the opposition to 20 points or less.

Let look at the distribution and records:

++ : 0
+= : 3 (3-0)
+- : 6 (3-3)
=+ : 1 (1-0)
== : 2 (0-2)
=- : 0
-+ : 2 (0-2)
-= : 2 (0-2)
-- : 0

So what can we see from the data?

1. The offense had to play well for the team to win. The team was 0-4 when the offense scored 20 or less.

2. Shootouts are a tossup (+-). And the team had more shootouts than anything else.

3. The majority of the losses (+=,==) happened when the defense gave up 21 or more points.

4. Productive offense and decent defense (+=,=+) are a winning formula (4-0 total)

Overall it seems that eliminating shootouts is the path forward. That means continuing the stand up a defense that can hold opponents to under 30 PPG while maintaining an offense than can score 30+ PPG. Moving 3-4 games from +- to += could make all the difference.

SFIAH

05-20-2017, 02:55 PM	#1
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,267	Defense vs offense When it comes to the defense it is what it is. It has to prove it on the field first no matter what. There is no point in arguing over it. But when you sit through many games where the offense is ineffective at moving the ball for entire first halves and three fourths of a game being held to 10 points or less, that is going to be a bigger concern for me. So it may not be the case next year with the schedule, it does not undo the fact it has been in the past two-three years. No improved defense is going to beat every good offense. We have the worst games for Brees on top of a game or two like that to go with division games. If our run at playoff success hinges on 4-2 and 5-1 division records every year, then we are in trouble. Against three improved teams in a give and take division that's not going to happen. That's why outside opponents are crucial.

05-20-2017, 06:20 PM	#3
neugey Hu Dat! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,717 Blog Entries: 13	Re: Defense vs offense

05-20-2017, 09:29 PM	#4
AllSaints Breakin Records Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Deville, Louisiana Posts: 2,167	Re: Defense vs offense Go Away !!!

05-20-2017, 11:07 PM	#5
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,267	Re: Defense vs offense Originally Posted by \|Mitch\| WTF are you talking about?! We had the #2 offense scoring 469 points last season, behind only the Falcons who scored 540. We were ranked second also with 29.3 points per game... We had the 31st ranked defense; 32nd ranked against the pass(273.8 ypg) and 14th against the run(101.6 ypg)... Which one is the bigger problem? For someone who claims to be all about the stats, you sure seem like less than even a casual fan This is what I mean by a casual fan. You point to stat padding statistics. Btw, no team put up the kind of points the saints did in any first half. That is why the stats make little sense because they evened the bad ones with big ones and when I pull up the first half totals I'm gonna prove it. Here's your stats you have been asking for. I don't know the totals straight up but here's a rough estimate..... 180 total first half points among those against Oakland, Carolina, SF, LA, Arizona, and TB 114.........Those six games accounted for over half and less than 2/3 of the total first half points. Just over a third remaining for the other ten games. What is the average ppg with those six games? 19 What is the average ppg with the remaining ten? 6.6 Overall average combined? 11.25 If the defense improved, it would maybe move the average up to 10 ppg in the first half in those ten games. That's still below average. source: my calculator BAM! Now those 469 points equals out to 29.32 ppg The points scored against Oakland, Carolina, SF, LA, Arizona, Atlanta, Atlanta, and San Diego that consisted of 30+.....280. The other eight games consisted of 189. The 280 average out to 35 The 189 average out to 23.63. What would a better defense do? Put Lutz on the field more to attempt field goals, and he had some ugly ones that went through. You're also assuming that the offense can afford to have bad first halfs and win in the second with a improved defense...in other words becoming a team winning from behind, something we are not known for. You are virtually assuming that points can occur anytime. And if the falcons scored 17 in the first half instead of 28, and the saints scored 13 instead of 10, the saints would win 35-27? In other words Atlanta still scores 10 points in that second half and does not score any in the fourth? No. How many less points does Detroit score with an improved defense? I would say 10 so 18. Saints would maybe move up to 16 points. We need improved oline and defense both.

05-20-2017, 11:40 PM	#6
Seer1 Site Donor Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Bayou Bayfield CO Posts: 4,722	Re: Defense vs offense Do you have a bunch of Detroit players on your fantasy team as well? Every time you spout off you compare us to them. Seriously, you really need to discover sex so you can fantasize about that instead of about thinking you know anything about football, communicating or being smarter than everyone else. How about this, what's a good cure for a hangover?

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05-20-2017, 03:09 PM	#2
\|Mitch\| 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Alexandria, La Posts: 11,303	Re: Defense vs offense WTF are you talking about?! We had the #2 offense scoring 469 points last season, behind only the Falcons who scored 540. We were ranked second also with 29.3 points per game... We had the 31st ranked defense; 32nd ranked against the pass(273.8 ypg) and 14th against the run(101.6 ypg)... Which one is the bigger problem? For someone who claims to be all about the stats, you sure seem like less than even a casual fan Rugby Saint II likes this.

05-21-2017, 09:01 AM	#7
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: Defense vs offense Originally Posted by WillSaints81 This is what I mean by a casual fan. You point to stat padding statistics. Btw, no team put up the kind of points the saints did in any first half. That is why the stats make little sense because they evened the bad ones with big ones and when I pull up the first half totals I'm gonna prove it. Here's your stats you have been asking for. I don't know the totals straight up but here's a rough estimate..... 180 total first half points among those against Oakland, Carolina, SF, LA, Arizona, and TB 114.........Those six games accounted for over half and less than 2/3 of the total first half points. Just over a third remaining for the other ten games. What is the average ppg with those six games? 19 What is the average ppg with the remaining ten? 6.6 Overall average combined? 11.25 If the defense improved, it would maybe move the average up to 10 ppg in the first half in those ten games. That's still below average. source: my calculator BAM! Now those 469 points equals out to 29.32 ppg The points scored against Oakland, Carolina, SF, LA, Arizona, Atlanta, Atlanta, and San Diego that consisted of 30+.....280. The other eight games consisted of 189. The 280 average out to 35 The 189 average out to 23.63. What would a better defense do? Put Lutz on the field more to attempt field goals, and he had some ugly ones that went through. You're also assuming that the offense can afford to have bad first halfs and win in the second with a improved defense...in other words becoming a team winning from behind, something we are not known for. You are virtually assuming that points can occur anytime. And if the falcons scored 17 in the first half instead of 28, and the saints scored 13 instead of 10, the saints would win 35-27? In other words Atlanta still scores 10 points in that second half and does not score any in the fourth? No. How many less points does Detroit score with an improved defense? I would say 10 so 18. Saints would maybe move up to 16 points. We need improved oline and defense both. I ignored everything else you wrote after these inane remarks ... Here's your stats you have been asking for. I don't know the totals straight up but here's a rough estimate.... If you are going to pretend that you understand stats you have to actually use them, not estimate. \|Mitch\| and ChrisXVI like this.
	Last edited by AsylumGuido; 05-21-2017 at 10:53 AM..

05-21-2017, 11:34 AM	#8
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,267	Re: Defense vs offense Originally Posted by Seer1 Do you have a bunch of Detroit players on your fantasy team as well? Every time you spout off you compare us to them. Seriously, you really need to discover sex so you can fantasize about that instead of about thinking you know anything about football, communicating or being smarter than everyone else. How about this, what's a good cure for a hangover? I don't spend all day on this board. I have a life. Most of my posts come in one time frame. Sex has nothing to do with seeing what the others don't with this offense's ineptitude in ten games. Again 6.6 ppg in ten games in the first half! And do you know if you are not married, sex is a sin? If you told that to a religious single person, you would answer to God.

05-21-2017, 11:48 AM	#9
\|Mitch\| 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Alexandria, La Posts: 11,303	Re: Defense vs offense Originally Posted by WillSaints81 I don't spend all day on this board. I have a life. Most of my posts come in one time frame. Sex has nothing to do with seeing what the others don't with this offense's ineptitude in ten games. Again 6.6 ppg in ten games in the first half! What's it matter when the points come? If you have a defense holding teams to say 17 ppg and then I feel that as good as our offense is ranked (#2), we could put up 20(29.3) points even if they all came in the second half... SaintFanInATLHELL and jnormand like this.

05-21-2017, 01:35 PM	#10
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,776	Re: Defense vs offense I see that "the analyst" is trying to make a point about the lack of consistency of the offense. But I believe what he is missing is that lack of consistency is even more pronounced in the defense. I'm not going to break down scoring by halves. But let's dump last years games into a few rough buckets to see any trends. Three categories: + : 30 points or greater for offense, 20 points or fewer for defense - : 20 points or fewer for offense, 30 points or greater for defense = : between 20 and 30 points for both offense or defense. Raiders: +- Giants : -+ Falcons: +- Chargers: +- Panthers: +- Chiefs: == Seahawks: =+ 49ers: += Broncos: == Panthers: -= Rams: += Lions: -= Bucs: -+ Cardinals: +- Bucs: += Falcons: +- The offense went 9-4-3 (+,-,=) while the defense was 3-6-7. There were exactly 0 ++ games and exactly 0 -- games. As shown there were exactly 3 games where the Saints held the opposition to 20 points or less. Let look at the distribution and records: ++ : 0 += : 3 (3-0) +- : 6 (3-3) =+ : 1 (1-0) == : 2 (0-2) =- : 0 -+ : 2 (0-2) -= : 2 (0-2) -- : 0 So what can we see from the data? 1. The offense had to play well for the team to win. The team was 0-4 when the offense scored 20 or less. 2. Shootouts are a tossup (+-). And the team had more shootouts than anything else. 3. The majority of the losses (+=,==) happened when the defense gave up 21 or more points. 4. Productive offense and decent defense (+=,=+) are a winning formula (4-0 total) Overall it seems that eliminating shootouts is the path forward. That means continuing the stand up a defense that can hold opponents to under 30 PPG while maintaining an offense than can score 30+ PPG. Moving 3-4 games from +- to += could make all the difference. SFIAH jnormand, AsylumGuido and Rugby Saint II like this.
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