Why Doesn't...

JKool · 04-15-2005, 04:35 PM

LK,

Fine question and interesting work.

My view is that teams SERIOUSLY overvalue draft picks. Every man and his dog wants a game changer - but they don\'t want just any game changer (like Edge), they want the next big game changer that has never been seen before.

As a result, FA isn\'t treated seriously enough, and a big stink is made out of draft picks.

Summary:
1. Draft Pick Value = probability player would be good + hope he will be a big deal
2. FA Value = probability player will be equally good on a new team (which is better known than the probability some draft pick will a big deal)

Analysis:
Draft picks aren\'t as valuable as people think they are.

Imperative:
Do better in FA and retain key players rather than bank on the draft.

Diagnosis:
Our FO isn\'t too hot.

04-15-2005, 04:35 PM	#29
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Why Doesn't... LK, Fine question and interesting work. My view is that teams SERIOUSLY overvalue draft picks. Every man and his dog wants a game changer - but they don\'t want just any game changer (like Edge), they want the next big game changer that has never been seen before. As a result, FA isn\'t treated seriously enough, and a big stink is made out of draft picks. Summary: 1. Draft Pick Value = probability player would be good + hope he will be a big deal 2. FA Value = probability player will be equally good on a new team (which is better known than the probability some draft pick will a big deal) Analysis: Draft picks aren\'t as valuable as people think they are. Imperative: Do better in FA and retain key players rather than bank on the draft. Diagnosis: Our FO isn\'t too hot.
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