SmashMouth

Saints (12-2): The NFC South is clinched. One win in their final two games — at home vs. the Steelers and Panthers — locks down the No. 1 seed. Losses by the Bears and Rams on Sunday also would deliver the top seed, even if the Saints lose. The Saints could still squander a first-round bye, by losing twice while the Rams and Bears win out.

Rams (11-3): They’ve won the NFC West, but nothing more. The Rams need to win twice and hope the Saints lose twice to land the No. 1 seed. A first-round bye also requires a pair of season-ending wins (at Cardinals, home vs. 49ers), since the 10-4 Bears hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams. One or two losses by the Bears (at 49ers, at Vikings) would make that path easier.

Bears (10-4): After winning their first NFC North title since 2010, the Bears can still climb the ladder, all the way to the top. Two wins (at 49ers and at Vikings) and one Rams loss would give Chicago the No. 2 seed. Two wins, one Rams loss, and two Saints losses would give the Bears home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Chiefs (11-3): They’ve clinched a playoff berth. Saturday night’s loss by the Chargers simplifies significantly the rest of the picture. A win against the Seahawks in Seattle on Sunday or a home win against the Raiders in Week 17 will nail down the AFC West title and a first-round bye. Two wins, or one win and one Texans loss, will secure the No. 1 seed. Two losses and a Chargers win over the Broncos would drop the Chiefs to the No. 5 seed.

Texans (10-4): They’ve yet to clinch a playoff berth. A win on Sunday at Philadelphia or a Steelers loss would give the Texans their official ticket to the postseason. A victory over the Eagles would also clinch the division title. Wins over the Eagles and Jaguars would nail down the No. 2 seed, giving the Texans their first playoff bye in franchise history. Two wins and two Chiefs losses would give the Texans home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Two losses could keep the Texans from winning the AFC South.

Patriots (9-5): Two weeks after being on the brink of their 10th straight division title, the Patriots continue to be one win away from securing it. Two home wins (home vs. Bills and Jets) and at least one Texans loss (at Eagles, home vs. Jaguars) would give the Patriots their ninth straight first-round bye.

Ravens (9-6): Thanks to that victory over the Chargers, the Ravens are in with a win next week, either as the AFC North champions (if the Steelers lose at the Saints or at home to the Bengals) or as the No. 6 seed (unless, as MDS explained on Saturday, the Texans lose their final two games and Houston prevails on the always-shifting strength-of-victory tiebreaker with the Ravens). Baltimore would win a wild-card tiebreaker with the Titans at 10-6 (thanks to a 21-0 shutout of Tennessee earlier this year) or the Colts at 10-6 (thanks to a better conference record). At this point, it’s still possible that the Ravens get in even with a loss next week; they’d win the division if the Steelers lose twice, and the Ravens would secure the No. 6 seed if the Colts lose to the Giants on Sunday and then beat the Titans next weekend, and if the Dolphins lose at least once.

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SmashMouth

With the afternoon games over, it’s time to reshuffle the playoff scenario deck. The AFC contenders, followed by the NFC contenders, are listed below, along with a description regarding what needs to happen in order to qualify and/or maximizing postseason positioning.

Chiefs (11-4): The Chiefs have clinched a playoff berth. A win over the Raiders next weekend or a Chargers loss to the Broncos clinches the AFC West. A win over the Raiders also delivers the No. 1 seed in the AFC. A loss to the Raiders plus a Chargers win results in the Chiefs landing in the No. 5 seed.

Texans (10-5): The Texans have clinched a playoff berth, thanks to Pittsburgh’s loss to the Saints. The Texans now need a win against the Jaguars and a loss by the Patriots to the Jets to secure a bye. If the Chiefs and the Patriots lose next week, and the Texans win, the Texans would be the No. 1 seed. Losing next weekend would also result in losing the division crown to the winner of the Colts-Titans game. A Colts-Titans tie would deliver the AFC South to the Texans.

Patriots (10-5): They’ve clinched the AFC East for the 10th straight time. A win against the Jets next weekend would give New England its ninth straight first-round bye. A win over the Jets and a Chiefs loss to the Raiders would give the Patriots the No. 1 seed.

Ravens (9-6): Thanks to that victory over the Chargers, the Ravens are in with a win next week over Cleveland or a Pittsburgh loss to the Bengals. Thanks to the Titans and Colts winning, the Ravens are out with a loss and a Pittsburgh win.

Chargers (11-4): The Chargers can still win the AFC West by beating the Broncos in Denver, if the Chiefs lose at home to the Raiders. Absent that, the Chargers will be the No. 5 seed.

Steelers (8-6-1): The Steelers are screwed, thanks to their loss to the Saints. They need to beat the Bengals and root for the Browns to beat the Ravens. If the Steelers win and the Browns and Ravens tie, the Steelers would win the tiebreaker with the Ravens based on a better division record.

Titans (9-6): With Pittsburgh losing, next Sunday night’s game against the Colts becomes a win-and-in scenario. The Titans could win the division by beating the Colts, if the Texans lose to the Jaguars.

Colts (9-6): The Colts have the same scenario as the Titans.

Dolphins (7-8): Their loss to the Jaguars eliminated Miami from playoff consideration.

Saints (13-2): The win over Pittsburgh gives the Saints the No. 1 seed.

Rams (11-3): They’ve won the NFC West, but nothing more yet. They’ll secure a first-round bye and the No. 2 seed with a win over the 49ers or a Bears loss to the Vikings. If the Rams lose and the Bears win, the Rams will fall to the No. 3 seed.

Bears (10-4): The Bears can become the No. 2 seed if they beat the Vikings, and if the Rams lose to the 49ers. Otherwise, Chicago is locked in as the No. 3 seed.

Cowboys (9-6): They’ve clinched the NFC East, and they’re locked in as the No. 4 seed.

Seahawks (9-6): The Seahawks have clinched a playoff berth. A win next week over Arizona makes Seattle the No. 5 seed. If they lose and the Vikings beat Chicago, the Seahawks would be the No. 6 seed.

Vikings (8-6-1): The win over the Lions, combined with Philly’s win over the Texans, requires the Vikings to win next weekend to nail down a playoff berth, unless Eagles lose to Washington.

Eagles (8-7): A win next weekend at Washington plus a Vikings loss would give the Eagles the No. 6 seed.

Washington (7-8): The wins by the Vikings and Eagles have eliminated Washington.

Panthers (6-9): The Panthers were eliminated by their loss to Atlanta.

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