SmashMouth

Saints (12-2): The NFC South is clinched. One win in their final two games — at home vs. the Steelers and Panthers — locks down the No. 1 seed. Losses by the Bears and Rams on Sunday also would deliver the top seed, even if the Saints lose. The Saints could still squander a first-round bye, by losing twice while the Rams and Bears win out.

Rams (11-3): They’ve won the NFC West, but nothing more. The Rams need to win twice and hope the Saints lose twice to land the No. 1 seed. A first-round bye also requires a pair of season-ending wins (at Cardinals, home vs. 49ers), since the 10-4 Bears hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams. One or two losses by the Bears (at 49ers, at Vikings) would make that path easier.

Bears (10-4): After winning their first NFC North title since 2010, the Bears can still climb the ladder, all the way to the top. Two wins (at 49ers and at Vikings) and one Rams loss would give Chicago the No. 2 seed. Two wins, one Rams loss, and two Saints losses would give the Bears home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Chiefs (11-3): They’ve clinched a playoff berth. Saturday night’s loss by the Chargers simplifies significantly the rest of the picture. A win against the Seahawks in Seattle on Sunday or a home win against the Raiders in Week 17 will nail down the AFC West title and a first-round bye. Two wins, or one win and one Texans loss, will secure the No. 1 seed. Two losses and a Chargers win over the Broncos would drop the Chiefs to the No. 5 seed.

Texans (10-4): They’ve yet to clinch a playoff berth. A win on Sunday at Philadelphia or a Steelers loss would give the Texans their official ticket to the postseason. A victory over the Eagles would also clinch the division title. Wins over the Eagles and Jaguars would nail down the No. 2 seed, giving the Texans their first playoff bye in franchise history. Two wins and two Chiefs losses would give the Texans home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Two losses could keep the Texans from winning the AFC South.

Patriots (9-5): Two weeks after being on the brink of their 10th straight division title, the Patriots continue to be one win away from securing it. Two home wins (home vs. Bills and Jets) and at least one Texans loss (at Eagles, home vs. Jaguars) would give the Patriots their ninth straight first-round bye.

Ravens (9-6): Thanks to that victory over the Chargers, the Ravens are in with a win next week, either as the AFC North champions (if the Steelers lose at the Saints or at home to the Bengals) or as the No. 6 seed (unless, as MDS explained on Saturday, the Texans lose their final two games and Houston prevails on the always-shifting strength-of-victory tiebreaker with the Ravens). Baltimore would win a wild-card tiebreaker with the Titans at 10-6 (thanks to a 21-0 shutout of Tennessee earlier this year) or the Colts at 10-6 (thanks to a better conference record). At this point, it’s still possible that the Ravens get in even with a loss next week; they’d win the division if the Steelers lose twice, and the Ravens would secure the No. 6 seed if the Colts lose to the Giants on Sunday and then beat the Titans next weekend, and if the Dolphins lose at least once.

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