And so it begins...

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 01:27 PM

There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never.

I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started.

If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 02:52 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never.

I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started.

If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages.

Payton is vague about everything this time of year. But, the fact is he is practicing now and played in the first preseason game. If he was truly still dealing with an injury there is no way he would have been out there on the field. You stated "he is dealing with something," but that is where you are wrong. "he was dealing with something". Big difference.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 02:59 PM

One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context.

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context.

I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want.

You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want.

Well, I was a senior systems analyst (also wearing a senior business analyst's hat) with a degree in accounting. I actually dealt hands on with data for years "slicing and dicing" to fit the project manager's needs. I managed my share of projects, as well. I know probabilities as well as most and have dealt with health related probability data extensively given I designed all of the reporting for a HMO/PPO company for almost twenty years.

Without knowing strict input parameters your chart is meaningless. There are far too many variables involved. But, even if accurate, your chart shows a high probability that Murray should have one of his four most productive NFL seasons (his 6th) in 2019 and still perform at a high level for the two seasons following.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 03:50 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.

Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts.

Utah_Saint · 08-13-2019, 07:16 PM

I'm cool with Murray. It's like a used car. We got a 5 year old model with no major repair history, for a great price.

The Dude · 08-13-2019, 09:58 PM

I don’t have anything against Murray, but a RB his age whose hurt the first week of camp doesn’t give me a ton of confidence given how important his role is supposed to be. I have a feeling we are going to miss Ingram’s play and locker room presence.

Maybe we have enough weapons at other skill positions to exploit defenses in a different way but there are still several unknowns at skill positions. It would be nice to have a back that can assume Ingram’s role if Butler, Washington, Humphrey, etc don’t pan out. At least we would have a tried and true attack.

Either way I feel like our offense is going to look very different than last year. Game tape from last year isn’t going to help defenses as much.

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 10:38 PM

Only way it works if we have a 3 RB attack and preserve him as much as possible. If he's getting 40 plus % of the RB touches I don't see it working out. Especially if we get into the playoffs. That is a long, long journey. He will be 30 yrs old if that happens. I recall going from 27 to 30 very clearly being in the military. I lost endurance, my joints felt different even though I was pushing myself physically harder. Some days I could pull it off. Some days I could not. At 27 no problem.

The Dude · 08-13-2019, 11:20 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

Only way it works if we have a 3 RB attack and preserve him as much as possible. If he's getting 40 plus % of the RB touches I don't see it working out. Especially if we get into the playoffs. That is a long, long journey. He will be 30 yrs old if that happens. I recall going from 27 to 30 very clearly being in the military. I lost endurance, my joints felt different even though I was pushing myself physically harder. Some days I could pull it off. Some days I could not. At 27 no problem.

Same can be said for Brees. I’m convinced the blame for the “drop off” we saw Was more a result of protection than age. Also believe he may have tweaked something.

It’s a year later now and I believe we will see a slight drop off. Payton can make it less of an issue if he would start pulling Brees when we are 3 TDs up with 4 minutes to go.

There is no reason Brees needs to be out there getting live action reps and risk injury. This will really help in the playoffs when he doesn’t have the same pass protection because Armstead is out.

08-13-2019, 01:27 PM	#1
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never. I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started. If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 02:52 PM	#2
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never. I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started. If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages. Payton is vague about everything this time of year. But, the fact is he is practicing now and played in the first preseason game. If he was truly still dealing with an injury there is no way he would have been out there on the field. You stated "he is dealing with something," but that is where you are wrong. "he was dealing with something". Big difference.

08-13-2019, 02:59 PM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: And so it begins... One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context.

08-13-2019, 03:24 PM	#4
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by AsylumGuido One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context. I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want. You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 03:37 PM	#5
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want. Well, I was a senior systems analyst (also wearing a senior business analyst's hat) with a degree in accounting. I actually dealt hands on with data for years "slicing and dicing" to fit the project manager's needs. I managed my share of projects, as well. I know probabilities as well as most and have dealt with health related probability data extensively given I designed all of the reporting for a HMO/PPO company for almost twenty years. Without knowing strict input parameters your chart is meaningless. There are far too many variables involved. But, even if accurate, your chart shows a high probability that Murray should have one of his four most productive NFL seasons (his 6th) in 2019 and still perform at a high level for the two seasons following.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

08-13-2019, 03:50 PM	#6
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy. Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts.

08-13-2019, 07:16 PM	#7
Utah_Saint Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Salt Lake City, Utah Posts: 3,521	Re: And so it begins... I'm cool with Murray. It's like a used car. We got a 5 year old model with no major repair history, for a great price. K Major likes this.

08-13-2019, 09:58 PM	#8
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,060	Re: And so it begins... I don’t have anything against Murray, but a RB his age whose hurt the first week of camp doesn’t give me a ton of confidence given how important his role is supposed to be. I have a feeling we are going to miss Ingram’s play and locker room presence. Maybe we have enough weapons at other skill positions to exploit defenses in a different way but there are still several unknowns at skill positions. It would be nice to have a back that can assume Ingram’s role if Butler, Washington, Humphrey, etc don’t pan out. At least we would have a tried and true attack. Either way I feel like our offense is going to look very different than last year. Game tape from last year isn’t going to help defenses as much.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,060	"Where life had no value, death, sometimes, had its price. That is why the bounty killers appeared."

08-13-2019, 10:38 PM	#9
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... Only way it works if we have a 3 RB attack and preserve him as much as possible. If he's getting 40 plus % of the RB touches I don't see it working out. Especially if we get into the playoffs. That is a long, long journey. He will be 30 yrs old if that happens. I recall going from 27 to 30 very clearly being in the military. I lost endurance, my joints felt different even though I was pushing myself physically harder. Some days I could pull it off. Some days I could not. At 27 no problem.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 11:20 PM	#10
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,060	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode Only way it works if we have a 3 RB attack and preserve him as much as possible. If he's getting 40 plus % of the RB touches I don't see it working out. Especially if we get into the playoffs. That is a long, long journey. He will be 30 yrs old if that happens. I recall going from 27 to 30 very clearly being in the military. I lost endurance, my joints felt different even though I was pushing myself physically harder. Some days I could pull it off. Some days I could not. At 27 no problem. Same can be said for Brees. I’m convinced the blame for the “drop off” we saw Was more a result of protection than age. Also believe he may have tweaked something. It’s a year later now and I believe we will see a slight drop off. Payton can make it less of an issue if he would start pulling Brees when we are 3 TDs up with 4 minutes to go. There is no reason Brees needs to be out there getting live action reps and risk injury. This will really help in the playoffs when he doesn’t have the same pass protection because Armstead is out. jnormand and Beastmode like this.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,060	"Where life had no value, death, sometimes, had its price. That is why the bounty killers appeared."

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