TheOak

There have been a fair amount of comments about a new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) and potential for an increased salary cap, figured some details and discussion might further the understanding and expectations.

Salary Caps
$188.2MM - 2019 Salary Cap
$199MM - 2020 Projected Salary Cap
$209MM - 2021 Projected Salary Cap

While the salary cap escalates +/- $10MM each year, every new CBA brings with it increases across the board and I would expect rookie contracts to go up. Also while we are all thinking that the cap increase will allow us to fit Player-X in easily we should temper that with an understanding that players A-Z with contracts coming up that year are going to factor the increased cap space into their pie as well.

2021 has Warford, Davis, Rankins, and Cook as UFA with Lattimore and Ramczyk Club options. I am sure we would like to get some of these guys out of the way in 2020 but that year brings with it Brees, Bridgwater, Klein, Apple, and Peat...

CBA Final Year
The NFLPA and the League will renegotiate a new CBA that will take effect in March of 2021.

The present CBA has a 'final year clause (2020)' that brings some unique items between the 2019 and 2021 seasons.

- Article 10 of the CBA stipulates that, in the Final League Year, teams are allowed to designate one franchise player and one transition player. (Teams can keep TWO players off the market with a Franchise and a Transition tag)

- No Post-June 1 Designations (No dead money deferral)

- Article 13, Section 7 of the CBA mandates that "no player contract extending into a season beyond the Final League Year may provide for an annual increase in salary ... of more than 30 percent of the salary provided for in the Final League Year, per year, either in the season after the Final League Year or in any subsequent season covered by the Player Contract."

- BOTH LTBE (Likely to be earned) and NLTB (Not Likely to be earned) incentive bonuses WILL count against the salary cap. Presently the NLTBE do not count against the cap.

- Remember the pseudo 'uncapped year' in 2010? No such thing in the final year of this CBA, a hard cap will be in place.

NEW CBA

Everyone wants something:

League - I expect the League will want to retain more of its revenues to offset the cost of equipment R&D as well as to offset the costs associated with concussions and legal actions.

NFLPA - More money is obvious. I suspect they will go after Goodell's power as arbitrator of his own decisions.

The League will tell the NFLPA that if they want more compensation, then more revenue will have to come in... meaningful revenue. Jersey and ticket sales will not cover this, I would expect to see a change in the 4P/16R Season schedule as more games is more TV time and thus more revenue. They also seem to be pushing overseas games hard and I would expect that to expand.

A quote from Eric Winston (President of the NFLPA) "Any conversation with NFL owners will be a renegotiation for a new deal, not an extension. At our board meetings we told everyone to prepare for a work stoppage; nothing has changed."

The more I read the more I believe this will get bloody: "NFLPA Exec Dir De Smith sent an email out to all NFL agents this morning, advising them to urge player clients to save money in the event of a work stoppage.
"We are advising players to plan for a work stoppage of at least a year in length," the letter states.
More in SBD."

Rumored Wants:

- The 89 percent spending floor could be raised to force teams to pay players more, or lowered to allow teams to save more.

- The NFL secured large amounts of “stadium credits” in the 2011 CBA — allotments of league revenue that help pay for new stadiums. Owners are aiming to seek even more stadium credits in the next CBA too, according to ESPN. “The [stadium credits] issue has prompted the NFLPA to scoff at the notion that the current talks relate to an ‘extension’ of the 2011 agreement,” wrote Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. The NFLPA considers the NFL’s requests “a major tweak” of the 2011 agreement.

- A rookie wage scale was introduced in the 2011 CBA to end increasingly gigantic contracts for early draft picks. Sam Bradford received a six-year, $78 million deal after he was the No. 1 pick of the 2010 NFL Draft. In the most recent draft, Baker Mayfield received a four-year, $32.68 million contract for being the No. 1 pick. The wage scale is probably here to stay, but the NFLPA could aim for higher amounts for rookies or shorter contracts for first-year players that lets them cash in on second deals sooner.
- The franchise tag could be in the crosshairs too with players now threatening to sit out seasons — and Le’Veon Bell even following through — to avoid it. The tag originally served to give teams more time to extend stars, but now it’s become a way to artificially avoid allowing the best players in the game to set the market higher at their respective positions.

- Money is the biggest reason to expect a lengthy fight, but there are also non-money issues: the league’s personal conduct policy, the substance abuse policy, and the commissioner’s unilateral authority to hand down punishment, to name a few.

- The possibility of an 18-game regular season, increased or decreased practice time, and changes to the players’ healthcare plan are a few more wrenches that could be tossed into the mix. The idea of an 18-game schedule has been floated by the NFL for several years. The league reportedly came to the NFLPA with the idea of allowing players to only play in 16 games per season — aiming to quell the union’s concern of players being overworked. There are several issues with that idea that would make it a bad compromise for both sides, though.

- That was also around the time a group of Hall of Famers led by Eric Dickerson threatened to boycott future induction ceremonies if the next CBA doesn’t include significantly better healthcare benefits and revenue sharing for Hall of Famers.

... I will update with more information as I come across it.

Sources
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/4/...2021-nfl-nflpa

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...2020-offseason

SmashMouth

Salaries are beyond out of hand, especially for the upper tier players. NFL Fans really cannot afford to go games anymore, especially if they have a family they want to bring.

Rookie wage scale to stay, as it should be. Maybe the time has also come for a veterans wage scale.

NFL trying to unearth new revenues streams, although it is getting tough to see just where they think they can get them.



Saints have a ton of new contracts on the horizon. Notwithstanding the ones already mentioned by TheOak, Kamara and Hill say hello.

TheOak

The mob is fickle is it not...

A CEO making $5MM bearing the liability and overseeing a company that provides goods/services that are crucial to quality of life is grossly overpaid and deemed Satan's taint..

Then someones favorite athlete comes up for a $100MM contract.. "PAY DA MAN"!

The league doesn't care much about ticket sales as they are a finite commodity and go to the stadium/team in contrast to television rights and commercials which are a wide open resource.

SmashMouth

... for now.

I'd be curious to see the revenue growth chart. It can't keep going up and up forever, can it? Many have turned off the NFL with all the foolishness that evidently continues to happen.

jeanpierre

It's not just market saturation, Smash; it's developing multiple revenue streams within that market...

Take for example a local bank paying to be the official bank of the team; then they get to make a nickel on every bank card issued with the logo...

Once the demand is established for the card with the team logo, maybe .05% of the bank's cut on every transaction with the card...

Eat at a local diner/truck stop (home cooking vs fast food), anyways, you should see the people buying Louisiana Lottery Tickets with the Saints Logo, what's that cut?

It's creating multiple revenue marketing streams that has allowed that growth...

Now is a player worth millions of dollars? Let me ask these questions for context:

What is a family of four attending a game in the loge section with season tickets spending? More accurately, what is a large corporation spending for two business execs and their traveling secretaries spending?

If a team is winning because of superior talented players, and the stadium is packed vs barely 20% and fans wearing bags with a 6-10 season, who's bringing in that extra income when teams are rocking it?

Are fans coming to see Drew Brees? or, Are fans coming to see the Saints? or, Are fans coming for the game experience? or, Are fans coming to see the Saints' Drew Brees for a terrific game experience?

It is crazy one person earns that much; but if he's putting in the work to be elite, and the results are directly attributable to his talent, work, and that yields x amount of dollars, how much should he have earned?

It's not that my way is the right way, I just make the right way my way...

TheOak

If you are asking a Marketing Director the answer is always yes... I have never met one that said 'nahhh'... They throw **** at the sky and hope nothing falls, if it falls that's okay falling has a specific marketable value as well.

Rugby Saint II

This is going to get ugly! Maybe Trump should be the mediator.

TheOak

I have never begrudged anyone what so ever for what they are able to make; CEO, Athlete, Research Chemist, Artist, Musician, Entertainer.... I do not believe in class warfare.... It's low character, I was merely pointing out how the mob is fickle lol.

People get way too hung up on worth, whether its an item for sale or an employee, none of them are worth more than what someone is willing to pay.. What someone is willing to pay someone else is none of my business. I am agreeing with you

The Dude

Thanks for the post Oak, really informative.
Does this mean we as fans may have to miss a year of football as this gets ugly or will they try and put some sort of product on the field?
I see us potentially getting the shaft.

TheOak

I hope not, 2011 saw a lock out from March 12, 2011, to July 25, 2011. At this stage of a negotiation of this magnitude there is a lot of telegraphing as well as fishing for not only what the other side wants but what they will settle for.

I’ve always said that a good deal is when both sides walk away feeling equally f*^%ed. Let’s see if the NFLPA learned a lesson in 2011 where they focused on comp and seemingly didn’t realize they gave Goodell all the power.