Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships...

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Yes, I know that. It concluded the onboard IFR was 1.2-1.3%. The modelling they are using though is that the virus is far more transmittable than most other models suggest(They used an R0 of 3.58 as opposed to 2-2.5). They assume that there are far more asymptomatic carriers than most other models predict, and that a much larger portion of the population has already been infected. If their R0 is wrong then their IFR is wrong, as their wouldn't be as many cases. Also, if the R0 is higher, more people will end up being infected. You can't just say the death toll would be a lot lower because the IFR is lower because all of the variables are interdependent. Do you realize how quickly a doubling time of 1.8 days would spread?

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Also, I want to point out there have been over 40 strains discovered. A lot of their statistical data is based on the Iceland study. Iceland obviously got hit with a very hospital strain of the virus. If it stays asymptomatic, it spreads more. This in itself both artificially inflates R0 and lowers IFR.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I’m not a conspiracy theorist by any means but I’m starting to think all this data is BS. Maybe they just don’t know and are putting stuff out there so people don’t go all Lord of the Flies and ****. Whatever we are being told isn’t the whole story, for whatever reason. Maybe it’s not nefarious, maybe it is but I doubt we ever get true numbers.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

It is BS. That's what people don't understand about models like this. They are just stepwise functions or algorithms that work like stepwise functions. They are only as good as the variables and data being accounted for. Algorithms recompute the stepwise function around the data added. Epidemiology is more complicated than models can account for.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...of-coronavirus

This is our future. Stopping it is like stopping the wind.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

BTW https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...ains-unchanged

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I do not believe a word of anything that comes out of China. All experts agree that the numbers coming out of China are incorrect. I also question the legitimacy of the Examiner.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Yes. I do a season happening this year. Offseason programs will be impacted. Attendance will be low. But I see it coming together by Fall.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Oh look at that... projected deaths just dropped again. Now down to 60k projected deaths from 80k (in March it was close to 200k).

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

You do understand that based on how we react to the virus deaths can go up or down, right. It depends on us.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

You do understand that based on how we react to the virus, deaths can go up or down, right? It depends on us.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

What I am posting are nationally leveraged models and projections, you understand that right?

You understand that, in mid-March 200k was projected with mitigation?

Guess that means we are doing a great job... I am a glass half-full type of guy though.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I know what the projection was. Again, how we react to this virus at this point is going to change the numbers.

It would have been great to massively test and then isolate but we missed that boat.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Yup

Would have been great to bet your life savings on the Saints to win the superbowl in 09, but we missed the boat...

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

All of their numbers are only projected into July. They don't account for the virus spreading through the population after we leave isolation. Their model is a pipe dream.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I'm not China's biggest fan, but do you really think they shut down for months, tried to get the cases down to zero, then just suddenly let everyone out even though they knew the numbers were wrong? That makes no sense.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

The only way we are only having 90k deaths is if we stayed in lockdown for the next 12-15 months. That isn't going to happen.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Ferguson, Osterholm, and Lipsitch(one of the guys that worked on that model the US keeps showing)... three of the world's best epidemiologists are all echoing the same exact thing. If we kept containment for 12-15 months, that 90k may be a reality. Then you have to worry about survival, food chains, chemical reagents for testing(which come from China by the way), supply chains, schools, the economy, etc. The moment we go back to the way things were, it will run through the US like lightning. They thought they had the Spanish flu contained too, and then it came back.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Cool story...

Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do.

I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

That's not an opinion, that's an actual fact. The models they are using are assuming Wuhan like lockdown scenario and that we stay in containment. They don't account for the virus coming back and respreading. The Lipsitch guy who was a big part of putting together the governments model will tell you that himself.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I don't know, for the life of me, why any of us are bothering to talk to you, but here I go again: You sit there and ADMIT that you picked a model, even though it was brought to your attention multiple times that the model you used was outdated and long since proven inaccurate... And you say "The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread".

Everything you said from that point was complete rubbish. You can't use a model, that was PROVEN to be faulty, and say "well, I was just using that to show how it would spread". Are you kidding me? How stupid do you think I am? Your whole premise is based on a broken model, and you think you can just put it back together and make it show something accurate? You have no idea what you're even saying, and neither do any of the rest of us, because you're literally just making things up as you go.

And I did not say the virus would be gone by the spring. It already is spring, first of all. I said that as the spring "settles in" the virus will "keep dying", as it has begun to do. I said it might be years before it's 100% gone. The point was that it will be easily manageable once we've come to the end of this cycle in the next couple of months. And that is good enough. The flu comes back every year. No one claims at the end of a flu season that kills between 60-80 thousand people that the virus will not return the next year, and yet we've always kept our normal way of life going.

Your doomsday rhetoric would have us all believe that we can NEVER leave our homes again, because it will just come back. Why? Why would it come back, based on people coming out of their homes, who presumably will not have the virus, considering we're all being quarantined? You make no sense.

This virus lasts on surfaces, supposedly, a little longer than the flu. Not weeks, or months, or years longer. The heat will kill it. The vast majority of it. And the only way for it to get airborne is for people to cough and sneeze it into the air. But there won't be very many carriers within the next couple of months. I know you would have us believe that you are some kind of viral expert, but you clearly are not. And neither am I, by the way. I just have a little common sense, and I don't rely on faulty models to make an argument.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

The model that I used wasn't outdated, Ferguson still stands by it completely if lockdown is lifted. If anything he has become even more pessimistic if social distancing doesn't continue cause he thinks the virus is a bit more transmissible.

Surfaces aren't even a primary source of spread, people are. The virus on surfaces or even if it's on your hands is very unlikely to infect you. It is mainly person to person transmission through air. The humidity can't kill something that is inside of someone else. A person can go a day or two and test negative and still have the virus because the virus load in their nasal passages is too low to detect. After this wave, we'll get imported cases and the whole process will begin again. You act as if there is no historical precedent for this. It's doing what most influenza pandemics have done, gone and come in waves. The Lancet study pretty much confirms this isn't over and is pretty much impossible to stop multiple waves.

Also, I don't want people to stay in their homes. The economy would fall apart. There has to be some sort of plan. We don't have a plan. You can either send the younger people back into the work force, get them infected... maybe like 20-30% which would slow down the rate of transmission quite substantially. Or you can isolation dance and go in and out of lockdown for a long period of time. We haven't even had a significant portion of our population get the virus. Why would it be more manageable the second time? Because of the heat? There have been several coronaviruses that have thrived in the heat (Mers, Sars). You are making assumptions on things that historical data doesn't back up. When a virus is transmissible from person to person through the air, it makes it very hard for the heat and humidity to stop it. We don't have to have 1.6 million people die, but if we prematurely declare victory and everyone goes out and doesn't give a **** we're going to end up with a lot of infections.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

The model IS outdated. They are merely moving the goal posts in trying to say their numbers will prove accurate when lockdown is lifted. In real science, you don't get to move the goal posts. You have to make a series of predictions that you would expect to see, if your hypothesis, or "model", is accurate. If any of those predictions are off, you have to start over with a new set of predictions. You can't say "well, it's wrong for now, but it'll be right later". Nope. That would have required that you predicted your first prediction would come up short. But then, that would mean your first prediction was just a guess, and not actually science. Which is, in fact, all these faulty models are. Guesses.

And you still miss the main point about surface spread. Sure, it might spread more through the air. "Might". But in order for this thing to make a comeback, with all of us stuck in our homes, we'd have to be constantly touching surfaces that contain the virus, for people to keep getting sick. But the virus isn't going to last long on surfaces. So the question is, how many people are going to be sick in the summer months to be ABLE to spread it by air? Not many.

Once more, I did NOT say it will be 100% gone. But it will be very mild. Nothing that we don't deal with in a year in, year out basis. You keep shouting from the rooftops "IT'S GOING TO COME BACK, WE CAN'T STOP IT!". Nobody is telling you there won't be a trace of it. But between the heat, and our immune systems building a natural defense to this virus, it will be even less of a big deal than it already is. We can't build immunity by hiding from the virus.

And I am not making assumptions, nor does historical data fail to back me up. This information comes from real scientists who actually study infectious diseases and know their history and tendencies. Government paid "science" never provides accurate data. That's how you end up with a prediction that the bird flu would kill 150 million people, and yet, to date, it has killed 350 people in 20 plus years.

And as for this: "There have been several coronaviruses that have thrived in the heat (Mers, Sars)."... Total lie.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coron...b6beedb4e8af9b "Looking back at SARS, one study identified an 18-fold increase of infections in colder temps compared to warmer days. Another report looked at how the virus behaved in different environments and found that its viability rapidly declined at higher temperatures and humidity levels. The researchers found the SARS virus became increasingly inactivated as temperatures and humidity rose.

Similarly to SARS, MERS — which was mostly spread from animals to humans — also seemed to be stronger in cold, dry weather. Researchers in one study stated, “coronaviruses have been shown to exhibit strong seasonal variation in natural hosts.” They found that that colder, drier conditions increased the risk of MERS transmission from camels to humans."

And that is the freaking Huff Post. They aren't exactly on my side of the political spectrum, lest you believe I've got an agenda. The heat will slow it significantly, period. We have a treatment that is working (even though the fake science community refuses to acknowledge it), and we will build "herd" immunity faster by having been exposed to it, rather than hiding from it.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

This will be my last reply...

First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information.

Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death.

Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19.

Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities.

A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.”

I wish you all the best!

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I can't even reply to that. There is so much wrong with what you just said, I don't even know how to deal with it. You say that flattening the curve is intended to decrease the number of infections in hospitals and not overload the system. This is true. It shouldn't shorten the model though. Flattening the curve should extend the infections into the later part of the year. What we've done is social distanced so much that R0 is or will be <1. A small percentage of the population has been infected. The virus will be reintroduced. The IFR you keep posting is incredibly optimistic cause it assumes an unmitgated R0 of around 3.5. I can promise you that the virus has never shown any signs of doubling in 1.8 days. Osterholms team followed around workers for weeks trying to see how rapid the spread was, and they isolated it to be somewhere around 2.5. The other points you've made... I just can't deal with. 60-80%(which is optimistic if the R0 is 3.5) of the population getting infected even with a .2% death rate is 390K-520K.
Also the seasonality thing is highly debatable. Like I said, other coronavirus have done incredibly well in warm weather.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Also I want to point out that a big portion of the deaths that are caused by coronavirus aren't being considered coronavirus deaths. They list the cause of death as heart attack, pneumonia , or whatever and the person is never actually tested for the virus.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Yet another lie. You are showing this forum that you haven't actually researched anything in the last month.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...matic-n2566543 "During the White House Wuhan coronavirus task force briefing Tuesday evening, Dr. Deborah Birx said the United States has taken a "liberal approach" in the way doctors classify deaths from the virus.

"The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we're counting that as a COVID-19 death," Birx said. "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."


You have it exactly backwards, and you thought no one would notice? Stop guessing. Stop spreading misinformation. Just stop.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/scores...d-by-the-city/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...a6d_story.html

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Listen to this interview, it will destroy your IFR argument. The deaths that are missed are so much more important than the cases that are missed because the numerator is more sensitive than the denominator.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I see "probable"and "almost certainly" in the headlines. .. there is nothing confirmed in any of those articles. Pure conjecture and speculation.

As discussed in another thread, right now there is nothing else to talk about. That means that thousands of news papers and columnists are competing for your attention with the same story... Expect some dramatic and evasive word play.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

It's pretty much factual. We don't have enough tests. We will never have enough tests because the reagents used in testing come from China. They aren't going to waste tests on people that have already died. In about 4-5 weeks we will pretty much start to run out of our testing capacity. There's no way that a significant portion of people aren't being left out of the the death toll. The same thing happened in China. China will freely admit that they have no idea what their actual death toll was because many of the people that died during the period were never tested. That's one of the reasons their IFR is 0.66%(which is actually used in the CEBM statistical data). Anytime you are calculating a fraction less than 1 the numerator(total number of deaths) is always going to be more sensitive than the denominator (total number of cases). 1/100 v.s. 2/100 is very different than 1/100 v.s 1/101. This is how IFR gets skewed. That's the point I'm trying to push across. If you actually read the article you'd know that epidemiologists are the ones saying this and not the Washington Post.

I'm tired of this thread though, I've been in the field a long time. I know what I'm talking about. I'm not discussing this anymore. I'll come back when what I said is proven to be true. I will just leave you with this, some of you are greatly underestimating what is occurring. We are about to have to make choices between our food and economy and people getting infected. Anyways kudos.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Incorrect, no country has a cornered market on reagent manufacturing. A reagent is simply a chemical compound used to detect a reaction. I have used reagents for 20+ years.


Qiagen - Germany (Not China)
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtec...uction-6-weeks

Your claims are refuted... All of them I would say.
https://www.chemistryworld.com/myste...011457.article

It is all for the best anyway isn't it? Chinese production Q/A desnt seem to be Sig Sigma does it...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21J51S

"Pretty much factual" and "factual" are no where near each other in your claims.

Stop scaring people.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ortages-remain

Qiagen produces reagents which extract RNA. There are several different reagents that go into the testing process. One is for storing the RNA, which is also in shortage(that doesn't come out of China either). There are however a set of reagents that we have been getting solely from China. I'm not saying we'll never be able to ramp up testing, but in 4-5 weeks we are going to hit a wall. We can probably produce them locally, but it's going to take a while to get everything going. The reagents required to do PCR analysis are pretty extensive.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

What are the reagents specifically? Give them to me by chemical composition please.

This has nothing to do with supply or demand and everything to do with logistical failure.
In Delaware, Senator Chris Coons said Thursday that the state hospital and medical lab couldn’t process coronavirus tests because of a shortage of chemicals. So swabs were being sent to LabCore and Quest despite their backlogs of more than a week, Coons said.

The state had ordered $300,000 worth of the chemicals, but after a month waiting on backorder, the supplies were further held up by a miscommunication between the Food and Drug Administration and shipper DHL, Coons said.

"The shipment still hasn't moved," Coons said on Thursday, pulling up the order's tracking number. "It's been sitting in a warehouse for an entire week. We just want the chance to use the state of their state-of-the-art machinery."

Lets be clear here. There is no cure so tested or not tested doesn't change anything if people are not spreading it correct?

If you feel like you have symptoms go rest, if you test positive you are going rest. No?

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

This entire argument I've been having is getting an accurate estimate of the death rate. Testing at this point is useless for actually stopping the spread, unless we get to a point where we are trying to suppress incoming cases(which I think is a futile effort anyways).Some of the countries with the most strictest lockdowns in place are still getting imported cases. A lot of the times when people first get infected, their viral load in their nasal/throat is too low to be picked up by the swabs anyways. The only thing I've been arguing in this thread is that number that they keep throwing around from the cebm that the IFR is 0.2%(which somehow conveniently raises the denominator through increasing the R0 but doesn't look at the numerator at all). This R0 is very suspect requiring a doubling rate of 1.8 days. I'd even take some issue with the 0.66% number they calculated from China. They've freely admitted that a large number of the people that died were not included in their stats because they never made it to the hospital and were never tested. I have no clue what the right number is but I think it's between 0.7-1.3 percent. This thread is becoming tedious, and I'm not doing it anymore. We're just going in circles.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Ya'll have been having a spirited debate and I see things more clearly now. However, I live on the Gulf Coast and if they reopen the beaches then we will be at high risk again. On the other hand you have to keep the supplies coming before the economy totally collapses. To reopen the economy we need to follow the science not your heart or bill fold in this matter. Interesting stuff to think about while I'm stuck at home.