Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I just don’t know how they can pull it off even with empty stadiums. It would completely change the game as we know it without fans.
Good news came out today that New Orleans death and case rate are leveling off but many states were way behind us with the stay at home orders.
NBA and MLB were concerned enough to cancel or postpone their seasons forgoing millions of dollars which isn’t chump change.
There are a lot of unknown still but this thing could very well come back in the fall although by then I expect more rapid testing and treatment.
It would be a shame for Brees and Brady.
I expect without OTAs and an abbreviated training camp we would see a lot more injury.
Maybe too early to speculate but it ain’t looking good.

Where is Coach Pete when you need him.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

If they cant conduct rookie, mini or summer camps, I dont see how it would happen.

XLIV CHAMPS

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

If any state with a team still has restrictions on large social gatherings then the whole league is still shut down. I just don’t see how this whole thing will be eradicated country-wide in the next couple months when many states aren’t even enforcing stay at home orders.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

We need to keep tabs on the sports leagues in Asia and Europe to see how things work out for them over this spring or summer. If some of those try to restart and end up having to stop, then it won't look good. Hoping we can get the season in, even if let's say the first 6 weeks have to be empty stadium games.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

The season will happen.

Country is going to be back to normal by June. IFR estimates are falling dramatically and we are already showing signs of plateau across all states.

Once IFR is actually established this might only be slightly worse than the flu. Unfortunately, those it does impact are the most vulnerable with pre-existing conditions.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

There are ways to conduct anything safely. All a team has to do is sequester the players for 15 days and administer tests before any camp to make sure anyone attending isn't infected and then have camp.

If the league and players want to earn a living they need to go to work.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

They will survive. In the days of Jim Brown, just how long was the off season? Certainly not like it was in 2019 for what they plan in activities, right?

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

We had 1100 deaths yesterday in the US and 25,000 new cases.
People are still going churches and beaches. No plateau until people wisen the f*** up.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Yes! The 2020 season will happen.....in 2021. :p

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

This. There are also a bunch of states that are way behind us on the curve. Many are still at the beginning stages. If people would just stay the **** at home this would be over faster.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Not really...

If you want to look at the data here are 3 sites you should pay attention to, or you can just go with your "feel".

Tracking:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Projections by state:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

CFR and IFR estimates:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

Avoid being scared by the MSM and look for the data yourself... turn off the TV.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Don't see it happening. The numbers are dropping because of social distancing, but this doesn't stop cases in the long run. We'll probably peak, come back down, and have a second wave. China has already started to get reinfected and they haven't even come out of lockdown. A casual Herd immunity for this would require something like 58% of the population to get infected. When asymptomatic carriers are the drivers and it is aerosolized, it's pretty much impossible to stop. Somewhere between 800k and 1.6 million will die in the US over the next 18-24 months from the virus.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

With all due respect, I mistrust any numbers coming out of China. Their reporting can't be trusted for an eternity of reasons. We need to evaluate based on South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, others in Asia and perhaps Europe and Australia.


My wife is getting tested this afternoon. She works in ER intake and has been having some minor symptoms over the weekend. Could be a false alarm and hoping it's just cold/allergy, but the hospital is requiring employees to be more on the precautionary side.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

For the greater part people are complying. Yes, there are a handful, or less, of churches still meeting, but there are 99.999% of them following the guidelines.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Actually, staying at home makes it last longer. As, I've stated before, there is a misconception when it comes to bending the curve. It suppresses cases. keeps hospitals from being overloaded, but it doesn't get rid of cases. It stretches out the process. This will stick around with us until a certain amount of people have been infected or we get a vaccine. It also allows time to develop monoclonal or polyclonal antibody therapies or other treatments while we are waiting on a vaccine.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Where are you getting your numbers from?

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Yes. I :confused: do.
This situation has to end one day, some day.
I believe the next two weeks are going to be tough.
May , things start getting back in order.
Teams would have been training now. Working out under the trainers, at least.
There will be a setback for all teams in those things.
It is going to be a faster draft. Faster training camp. It will feel faster .

August, preseason.
It is going to happen.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Oxford/Imperial College models and Michael Osterholm. The models the US are using are assuming China like lockdown scenario and that we won't have a resurgence of cases. Lets do some ballpark math....25% percent of the population gets infected at 1% death rate...about 800k. 50% would be 1.6 million dying..it could be even more than that. The Oxford/Imperial college model puts it between 1-2 million. The idea that we can just lockdown and stop it is ridiculous, especially with asymptomatic carriers being the primary drivers. That's what the US models assume.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

And they , the governors and mayors ,need to grow a pair and shut church’s down.
I get it these pastors and flock are hoping, wishing for that, so they can get a Supreme Court case . An unwinnable SC case .


If churches are open , then open up nail salons, gyms, everything.
Opening church defeats the purpose.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Everybody, stay healthy and follow the rules. Yes I am.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

No, your not using the Oxford model because that is estimating IFR to be 5-6x of the common flu. Your also ignoring the fact that 90% of fatalities have at least 1 per-existing condition. Take this into consideration and factor in that mitigation is occurring, then understand that the US model WAS showing 140-220k deaths mid March which has already been reduced to 80k as of yesterday.

Go ahead and provide a link to the model. I linked the projections and actual Oxford model of IFR on page 2 of this thread.

Edit:
Here is an excerpt if you don’t want to look at the research article.

“ We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.*”

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

The Oxford Model has a major flaw in assuming that a large portion of the population has already gotten the virus...a fact I don't believe to be true and artificially lowers its death rate. What the Oxford Model does do is to underscore the ability of the virus to spread, which has been greatly underestimated. As a result it greatly underestimates the death rate. There have been studies in semi-perfect isolated conditions that show that show the death rate to be somewhere between .7 and 1.3%. The imperial college model is better for the overall deaths. The Oxford model shows that these cases are unavoidable. The Imperial College has the deaths between 1 and 2 million. Models suck overall anyways, and both models are flawed. They can really only be created by computer algorithms or the more basic stepwise approach which combines several components into both a linear and exponential factor. The two approaches are actually quite similarly flawed. They don't "model" the real world effectively. Go watch some Osterholm videos, he's been studying this **** out of the womb. If you use basic math and know that the death rate is 1% ,25% of the population getting infected would be 800k deaths. This virus isn't going to leave. Even if we suppress it, it will just come back.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

bud.. all I am looking for is a link to this research article.

If you want to hold on to the wrong IFR numbers, that's fine, I have provided a link that goes much further in-depth than anything else I have read and if you chose not to read or believe that I am not going to change your mind.

Again, if you have the link, provide it. I don't care about people 'opinions' around these topics.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

My prediction.... I think it's gonna start late, in the fall, Octoberish, I think it will be a 12 game season like in the very old old NFL days, and then playoffs and Super Bowl as normal happening in 2021.

That is just my take. I don't think things are gonna be back to normal in time for the season to open. And I don't see them playing with empty stadiums because, a big chunk of the money these guys make is in the concessions and booze and the suites and so forth.

I will be happy to be wrong but that's what I think is gonna happen. The big silent players in this are the insurance companies -- will they let the league have the games, if there is risk of people getting sick and possibly suing the league, if that happens? I find that doubtful. Insurance companies are all about risk, and that is a BIG risk. They don't like unknowns, in fact they despise them.

The other thing to look at, is the big time concert industry. The Stones postponed their tour dates, and they aren't even talking about WHEN they will reschedule...Roger Waters just cancelled his tour, and that was for July and August, in big venues similar to basketball, hockey, and NFL stadiums. So if Roger Waters' management is saying that August is a no go, well that's food for thought about the season starting around Labor Day.

Keep an eye on the concert industry, and the insurance industry. As they go, so goes the NFL, I think.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Concessions, booze and suites are a tiny drop in the overall revenue bucket. Broadcast revenues make up the major portion. As long as games can be telecast then butts are not required to be in seats.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf


Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop.

Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Great, thank you.

So, a few problems I find in your article.

First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested).

Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable.

Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020.

There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

You just dropped an atom bomb dude. Thank you.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

You're way overthinking it. The fact of the matter is that even the projections post "stay at home" have been cut in half, and they are still using worst case scenario. As spring settles in, the virus will keep dying. And HCQ, whether deep state Fauci wants to admit it or not, is working as a treatment.

It's not going to be 100% gone for a while, maybe years. That goes for anything.

Where we agree is that lockdowns are useless. And I know it may sound callous if not taken in context, but those who are dying from covid right now were just as likely to die from the flu. It's just a matter of which virus they got first. That's what the media refuses to acknowledge. But again, there is a treatment that is working to save lives.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

The thing is I don't care. You can pick whatever model you want. If 10 million people got infected in the next 24 months,about 100K would die. That's only 3.125% of the population. Do you think only 3.125% or 6.25% is going to stop an infected person from spreading the virus. The only reason the numbers are going down is people are staying indoors. What happens when they come out and you have asymptomatic carriers showing up. It's common sense what's going to happen.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Nobody is "picking" a model. You used an outdated one. And no, the reason the numbers are going down is NOT because of people staying indoors. They were making projections, factoring that in, of how many would be infected and how many would die, based on nothing more than a glorified guess of how many people had come into contact with the virus before the stay at home orders started. They way overestimated the extent of how much it had already spread. And as such, they have cut their numbers in half.

You don't get to go back in time and use the doomsday models that fit your narrative. THAT is "picking" a model.

And how are asymptomatic carriers going to spread anything AFTER the stay at home is over? Even though I highly object to the decision to close everything, due to the massive economic impact, isn't the point of a quarantine supposed to be to let whoever has the virus either get well from home, or in the hospital, while everyone else who isn't sick doesn't get exposed? I don't see how people are going to emerge in great numbers carrying the virus.

My thing is that we're already seeing that most people who get the virus are going to be able to beat it without any problem. So if anyone is going to be quarantined, it should be the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Let everyone else build the "herd immunity" while keeping the economy flowing. But I think even FORCING at risk people to quarantine is a violation of constitutional rights. Let them choose what risks they want to take.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread. The numbers I used didn't match either model. If you think the virus is going to die off in the spring, you are making a completely false assumption. The rate of transfer is much too high, this isn't influenza which has a sub 1 R0. The whole handwashing, surface cleaning,etc...those aren't even close to being primary infection pathways...there's not even a lot of evidence to suggest those are true pathways to infection.People are actually cleaning to a great extent, which probably doesn't even help a whole lot. It's mainly just breathing air. It will still be transferred via droplets. The humidity and heat may slow down aerosolized transfer quite a bit. The rate of transfer will still be high(higher than 1.5 at the very least). The summer months aren't going to stop air to air contact. I'm not overthinking ****, you are under thinking. The CDC has little to no input on what the government is saying right now, if they did they would be saying something completely different. They've pretty much been sidelined throughout the entire process.

I'm going to remember this thread though so I can come back to it later on.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

"There is a simple truth behind the problems with these modeling conclusions. The duration of containment efforts does not matter, if transmission rates return to normal when they end, and mortality rates have not improved. This is simply because as long as a large majority of the population remains uninfected, lifting containment measures will lead to an epidemic almost as large as would happen without having mitigations in place at all."Wesley Pegden and Maria Chikina(Who are pretty well respected)

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Also the CEBM is based on the Oxford model, which assumes that a large chunk of the population has already been infected and that R0 is incredibly hight. They are probably greatly underestimating the IFR. Several other papers put it closer to 1%. Cruise ship studies disagree with this. Also, there have been a couple of towns in Italy that have been perfect testing scenarios. They all point to somewhere between .7 and 1.3 IFR.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

There aren’t several that point to IFR at all, there are only a few institutions capable of working on it right now because it’s so new and data is so limited. Being that it’s limited as the study pointed out it’s more likely to be overestimated like the swine flu was.

I know a few posts above you said you don’t care what it really is, that’s fine, but I am just tired of seeing people fear monger. I am not saying that is your intention but for many it is and the fear caused by shutting the global economy down will cause more death than the actual virus.

What I know for certain, the next week and a half is going to be ugly...

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Fear mongering isn't really my purpose. I think people should be somewhat afraid. A temporary lockdown is good to assess how we are going to approach this, but the virus isn't going away anytime soon. Even if we went down to 0 cases, it'd come back China is already starting to have difficulties. There has to be some sort of balanced plan, otherwise our economy will fall apart. Most of these models that you see end in July. This virus will not be over by July and we also can't shutdown for 18-24 months. The government really needs to get the CDC involved(meaning more epidemiologists and virologists). You have to strike some balance between spreading it out and keeping the economy running. From all the data it is very unlikely that R0 is 3.58 like the Oxford model and the iceland studv suggest, so I don't believe the IFR of the CEBM. It may be lower than 1%, but I don't believe it's like .1 or .2%. Another thing to note, if the unmitigated R0 was really that high, we'd end up with like 60-80% of the population getting infected, so that'd increase the deaths, cause there's going to be multiple waves....I can pretty much guarantee that.

Also, I want to note that our testing is about to go to **** in like 4-5 weeks, cause the supply chains from China are shut down and the chemicals needed for the tests come from there.