Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Yet another lie. You are showing this forum that you haven't actually researched anything in the last month.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...matic-n2566543 "During the White House Wuhan coronavirus task force briefing Tuesday evening, Dr. Deborah Birx said the United States has taken a "liberal approach" in the way doctors classify deaths from the virus.

"The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we're counting that as a COVID-19 death," Birx said. "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."


You have it exactly backwards, and you thought no one would notice? Stop guessing. Stop spreading misinformation. Just stop.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/scores...d-by-the-city/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...a6d_story.html

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Listen to this interview, it will destroy your IFR argument. The deaths that are missed are so much more important than the cases that are missed because the numerator is more sensitive than the denominator.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

I see "probable"and "almost certainly" in the headlines. .. there is nothing confirmed in any of those articles. Pure conjecture and speculation.

As discussed in another thread, right now there is nothing else to talk about. That means that thousands of news papers and columnists are competing for your attention with the same story... Expect some dramatic and evasive word play.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

It's pretty much factual. We don't have enough tests. We will never have enough tests because the reagents used in testing come from China. They aren't going to waste tests on people that have already died. In about 4-5 weeks we will pretty much start to run out of our testing capacity. There's no way that a significant portion of people aren't being left out of the the death toll. The same thing happened in China. China will freely admit that they have no idea what their actual death toll was because many of the people that died during the period were never tested. That's one of the reasons their IFR is 0.66%(which is actually used in the CEBM statistical data). Anytime you are calculating a fraction less than 1 the numerator(total number of deaths) is always going to be more sensitive than the denominator (total number of cases). 1/100 v.s. 2/100 is very different than 1/100 v.s 1/101. This is how IFR gets skewed. That's the point I'm trying to push across. If you actually read the article you'd know that epidemiologists are the ones saying this and not the Washington Post.

I'm tired of this thread though, I've been in the field a long time. I know what I'm talking about. I'm not discussing this anymore. I'll come back when what I said is proven to be true. I will just leave you with this, some of you are greatly underestimating what is occurring. We are about to have to make choices between our food and economy and people getting infected. Anyways kudos.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Incorrect, no country has a cornered market on reagent manufacturing. A reagent is simply a chemical compound used to detect a reaction. I have used reagents for 20+ years.


Qiagen - Germany (Not China)
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtec...uction-6-weeks

Your claims are refuted... All of them I would say.
https://www.chemistryworld.com/myste...011457.article

It is all for the best anyway isn't it? Chinese production Q/A desnt seem to be Sig Sigma does it...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21J51S

"Pretty much factual" and "factual" are no where near each other in your claims.

Stop scaring people.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ortages-remain

Qiagen produces reagents which extract RNA. There are several different reagents that go into the testing process. One is for storing the RNA, which is also in shortage(that doesn't come out of China either). There are however a set of reagents that we have been getting solely from China. I'm not saying we'll never be able to ramp up testing, but in 4-5 weeks we are going to hit a wall. We can probably produce them locally, but it's going to take a while to get everything going. The reagents required to do PCR analysis are pretty extensive.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

What are the reagents specifically? Give them to me by chemical composition please.

This has nothing to do with supply or demand and everything to do with logistical failure.
In Delaware, Senator Chris Coons said Thursday that the state hospital and medical lab couldn’t process coronavirus tests because of a shortage of chemicals. So swabs were being sent to LabCore and Quest despite their backlogs of more than a week, Coons said.

The state had ordered $300,000 worth of the chemicals, but after a month waiting on backorder, the supplies were further held up by a miscommunication between the Food and Drug Administration and shipper DHL, Coons said.

"The shipment still hasn't moved," Coons said on Thursday, pulling up the order's tracking number. "It's been sitting in a warehouse for an entire week. We just want the chance to use the state of their state-of-the-art machinery."

Lets be clear here. There is no cure so tested or not tested doesn't change anything if people are not spreading it correct?

If you feel like you have symptoms go rest, if you test positive you are going rest. No?

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

This entire argument I've been having is getting an accurate estimate of the death rate. Testing at this point is useless for actually stopping the spread, unless we get to a point where we are trying to suppress incoming cases(which I think is a futile effort anyways).Some of the countries with the most strictest lockdowns in place are still getting imported cases. A lot of the times when people first get infected, their viral load in their nasal/throat is too low to be picked up by the swabs anyways. The only thing I've been arguing in this thread is that number that they keep throwing around from the cebm that the IFR is 0.2%(which somehow conveniently raises the denominator through increasing the R0 but doesn't look at the numerator at all). This R0 is very suspect requiring a doubling rate of 1.8 days. I'd even take some issue with the 0.66% number they calculated from China. They've freely admitted that a large number of the people that died were not included in their stats because they never made it to the hospital and were never tested. I have no clue what the right number is but I think it's between 0.7-1.3 percent. This thread is becoming tedious, and I'm not doing it anymore. We're just going in circles.

Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening?
 

Ya'll have been having a spirited debate and I see things more clearly now. However, I live on the Gulf Coast and if they reopen the beaches then we will be at high risk again. On the other hand you have to keep the supplies coming before the economy totally collapses. To reopen the economy we need to follow the science not your heart or bill fold in this matter. Interesting stuff to think about while I'm stuck at home.