Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-07-2020, 09:42 PM

Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also.

blackangold · 04-07-2020, 11:08 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also.

If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships...

hitta · 04-07-2020, 11:34 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships...

Yes, I know that. It concluded the onboard IFR was 1.2-1.3%. The modelling they are using though is that the virus is far more transmittable than most other models suggest(They used an R0 of 3.58 as opposed to 2-2.5). They assume that there are far more asymptomatic carriers than most other models predict, and that a much larger portion of the population has already been infected. If their R0 is wrong then their IFR is wrong, as their wouldn't be as many cases. Also, if the R0 is higher, more people will end up being infected. You can't just say the death toll would be a lot lower because the IFR is lower because all of the variables are interdependent. Do you realize how quickly a doubling time of 1.8 days would spread?

04-07-2020, 09:42 PM	#1
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,347	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,347

04-07-2020, 11:08 PM	#2
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also. If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships...

04-07-2020, 11:34 PM	#3
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,347	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships... Yes, I know that. It concluded the onboard IFR was 1.2-1.3%. The modelling they are using though is that the virus is far more transmittable than most other models suggest(They used an R0 of 3.58 as opposed to 2-2.5). They assume that there are far more asymptomatic carriers than most other models predict, and that a much larger portion of the population has already been infected. If their R0 is wrong then their IFR is wrong, as their wouldn't be as many cases. Also, if the R0 is higher, more people will end up being infected. You can't just say the death toll would be a lot lower because the IFR is lower because all of the variables are interdependent. Do you realize how quickly a doubling time of 1.8 days would spread?
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,347