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If you love statistics, here's a great analysis/predition

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Our first NFC wild card game is a repeat from Week 13, when the Saints beat Detroit 31-17. The Saints got off to a 24-7 start, then withstood a small Detroit comeback in the third quarter. Remarkably, the Lions actually ...

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Old 01-06-2012, 05:51 PM   #1
xan
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If you love statistics, here's a great analysis/predition

Our first NFC wild card game is a repeat from Week 13, when the Saints beat Detroit 31-17. The Saints got off to a 24-7 start, then withstood a small Detroit comeback in the third quarter. Remarkably, the Lions actually outgained the Saints in net yardage, 466 to 438. However, the Lions had fewer yards per play (6.8 vs. 7.2 for New Orleans), the game's only turnover, and a lot of penalties: 11 flags for 107 yards.
WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

It's no secret that the passing game is now a bigger part of the NFL than ever before, and Detroit epitomizes this. Detroit ran the ball on a league-low 33 percent of plays, despite the fact that they won 10 games and thus had some time running out the clock. And no team uses shotgun more than Detroit, which went shotgun on 68 percent of plays this year. The Saints had a poor defense this year, and it was even worse when opposing quarterbacks were in shotgun. The Saints had 4.0% DVOA (19th) against quarterbacks under center, but 31.0% DVOA (29th) against quarterbacks in shotgun.
The Saints ranked 17th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, which is a little bit better than their overall pass defense but not really something that gives you confidence in their ability to cover Calvin Johnson. Johnson had just 69 yards with no touchdowns in the first Saints-Lions game, and it's hard not to argue that this was the best-case scenario for the Saints. He should do better in their second meeting.
to read MUCH more, as well as their prediction:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | NFC Wild Card Preview

What I find really interesting is that they stripped away any emotional perception of performance and are laser sharp on weaknesses. AND MAN, there are plenty.

WOO BABY, strap in, it's going to be a bumpy ride...
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Old 01-06-2012, 05:56 PM   #2
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dear god their offense is playing Pong!
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Old 01-06-2012, 06:19 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by pherein View Post
dear god their offense is playing Pong!
ROTFLMAO . . . oh man, that is too funny . . . I had one of those Atari game systems back in the day . . . hey, what's a dome nut? Somebody told me I should bring some dome nuts Saturday and I wasn't sure if I should be offended, hungry or looking for a lug wrench.

go Lions.
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Old 01-06-2012, 06:28 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by xan View Post
to read MUCH more, as well as their prediction:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | NFC Wild Card Preview

What I find really interesting is that they stripped away any emotional perception of performance and are laser sharp on weaknesses. AND MAN, there are plenty.

WOO BABY, strap in, it's going to be a bumpy ride...
WOW! You weren't kidding . . . that has got to be the most surgical, precise, analytical review of this matchup around . . . stand back, I'm going back in . . .

go Lions.
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Old 01-06-2012, 07:20 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by SloMotion View Post
ROTFLMAO . . . oh man, that is too funny . . . I had one of those Atari game systems back in the day . . . hey, what's a dome nut? Somebody told me I should bring some dome nuts Saturday and I wasn't sure if I should be offended, hungry or looking for a lug wrench.

go Lions.
lol, nah its a play off "Time to make the donuts"Duncan donuts
Nah, youll have a great time we're good people. You beat us it will be fair and square. You won't won't find many saints fans being that bad about it. WE lose we lose, we don't make excuses.
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Old 01-07-2012, 04:55 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by pherein View Post
lol, nah its a play off "Time to make the donuts"Duncan donuts
Nah, youll have a great time we're good people. You beat us it will be fair and square. You won't won't find many saints fans being that bad about it. WE lose we lose, we don't make excuses.
Yyyyyeeeeepppp, I feel it 100%, you are all my kind of people on here and I've been more welcomed, had more fun and seen more good football talk on this board then any other board . . . you have a heckuva site here, I could watch a game in realtime with you people . . . we all know the Lions have a slim chance to none at winning this game, but you guys don't try to rain on my parade and let me enjoy the moment . . . well, until game time I suppose, hehe. It's sportsmanship. I won't forget this week, it was the next best thing to being there.

go Lions.

... this space intentionally left blank ...
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Old 01-07-2012, 09:10 AM   #7
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What's Stafford's ERA? Oh, wait...
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Old 01-07-2012, 11:56 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Tobias-Reiper View Post
What's Stafford's ERA? Oh, wait...
Don't know, but we got Justin Verlander, 2011 AL MVP and 2011 Cy Young Award winner . . . not too many pitchers have won both those awards in the same year . . .

go Lions.
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