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Running Predictability in 2013

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; When you have 60 minutes to win a game, you do what works, and last year the running game wasn't working for the most part. I know some people look at the stats and tend to reverse engineer, "we won ...

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Old 04-01-2014, 09:16 AM   #1
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Running Predictability in 2013

When you have 60 minutes to win a game, you do what works, and last year the running game wasn't working for the most part. I know some people look at the stats and tend to reverse engineer, "we won because we ran more"... That isn't exactly the case, we ran more because we were running successfully and it was working which lead to us winning the game.

More running is not the key or necessarily means a win.
Chicago - 29 ATT, 64 yards Won
Carolina - 17 ATT, 69 yards and Won... then turned around and played them again with 30 ATT, 129 yards and lost.
New England - 26 ATT, 131 yards and lost
Buffalo - 26 ATT, 77 yards and Won

Of our top 5 rushing games we lost 3
Of our top 5 passing games we lost 2


Ive been looking at the player splits for 2013 for months now trying to figure out why we are so predictable and nothing ever stood out. I just looked at the team splits and got smacked in the face with a glaring tell tale on our predictability.

This gives you ball location odds:
When between our own 1-20 yard line we had a total of 65 rushing ATT
When between our 20 and mid field we had 175 rushing ATT
When between mid field and the opp 20 we had 151 rushing ATT
When between opp 20 and the endzone we had 110 rushing ATT

This gives you play probability before the snap:
No huddle - 4 rushing ATT
Huddle - 449 rushing ATT
Shotgun - 62 rushing ATT
Under Center - 391 rushing ATT

In comparison to Denver another heavy passing team.
Ball Location
When between our own 1-20 yard line we had a total of 106 rushing ATT
When between our 20 and mid field we had 182 rushing ATT
When between mid field and the opp 20 we had 148 rushing ATT
When between opp 20 and the endzone we had 134 rushing ATT

Pre snap
No huddle - 217 rushing ATT
Huddle - 278 rushing ATT
Shotgun - 315 rushing ATT
Under Center - 180 rushing ATT

So pretend to be a Mike LB on a defense and both teams come to the line on their 15 with no huddle What are the Saints likely to do? What is Denver likely to do? Fairly predictable isn't it?

On, both teams come to the line on your 15 with no huddle.. ?

Here is the kicker .. New Orleans Saints rushing from the no huddle 9.3 YPC, New Orleans Saints rushing from the shotgun 4.8 YPC. Both higher than Denver.

One could reach and say that at the end of the day, field position and huddle give us away.
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Old 04-04-2014, 09:46 PM   #2
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Re: Running Predictability in 2013

Great post with a lot of information. I can definitely see your point about how a play caller can usually figure out what we are about to do fairly easily. Looks like we need to run some more no huddle and mix our plays up some more. Perhaps if our run game is stronger play callers will keep it in the back of their mind some more.

As for the examples of the Carolina game and the New England game. Iirc didn't we lose both those games on the last play? I am not completely certain that those loses can be related to our run game.
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Old 04-08-2014, 11:29 AM   #3
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Re: Running Predictability in 2013

Our evil genius has a little work to do. I didn't realize we were so predictable. Mix it up Sean and win coach of the year again.
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Old 04-08-2014, 06:57 PM   #4
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Re: Running Predictability in 2013

Predictable? Could that be why Mark Ingram was pummeled by 3 or 4 defenders 2 yards behind the LOS every f'ing time he took a handoff?

Naw, couldn't be.
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Old 04-08-2014, 07:50 PM   #5
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Re: Running Predictability in 2013

Ingram and Robinson are no threat in the passing game to date so predictability is not that hard to see when they take the field. both backs need to improve their overall game big time. both are below average pass blockers to boot. not the lack of effort just the ability to pick things up as they happen.

no guessing needed by the defense. run blitz all the way. odds are if it is a passing play the blitz will not get picked up anyways.
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