BakoSaint

I am deeply against signing Carr. I could be wrong but I just dont think he has that it factor. He is good but not great. He is Jake Delhomme. He is Andy Dalton. He is Alex Smith. He is Kirk Cousins. We played the ‘ignore his losses because it was the Raiders’ card with Dennis Allen and he still lost. Carr could be the same. This is a guy who had a top 3-5 NFL WR and we shut him out. We didn’t shut out Minshew. We didnt shut our Darnold. We didn’t shut out Mayfield. We didn’t shut out Mariota. We didnt shut out Ridder. We did shut out Carr. I think there is a real chance if Carr maintains or lightly elevated his play he leads us to a glorious 9-8 season. Maybe even a 9-8 NFC South championship. But that is not a ring. Maybe if it works he gets us where Dalton got the Bengals or where Delhomme got the Panthers or where Alex Smith got the Chiefs. Yeah he had no defense in Oakland but Brees had no defense in New Orleans yet had that it factor. And thats if he is who he was a couple years ago. Its also possible this is his decline and we get Broncos Russell Wilson or Patriots Cam Newton.

On the money side Carr makes $33 million next year and $40 million in 2024. I dont think we can afford to pay him $33 million in 2023 so that means more of the magic out of Loomis. That magic means his salary is $1 million in 2023 and something like $15 million extra each season deferred to 2024 and 2025 on top of the existing $40 million salaries each of those years, which are mostly not guaranteed, but are harder to cut with the guaranteed deferred money tacked on. Then if he fails in 2023 the dead cap to cut him in 2024 will be something like $40 million, perhaps more if his restructure increases guarantees. If he is ok in 2023 and we kick it down the road a year we likely restructure again and the dead cap to cut in 2025 could be something like $50 million because most of his 2023 and 2024 salaries will be converted to future deferred bonuses. If he does great in 2023 we still probably cant afford to commit $50-55 million or something to him in 2024. His current 2024 salary is $40 million plus we will likely defer $10-15 million or so of his 2023 salary to 2024. So if he does well in 2023 we will have to sign him to a long term extension that is long enough to stretch $50 million the first year and likely a similar figure in 2025 into digestible chunksover future years with the big money coming in later years. That means if Carr had one solid year we might have to sign him to some kind of 5-8 year contract to work magic with our screwed up cap because we cant afford his salary the next couple years so we need to go a lot longer to spread out the money. So then we are betting on a second tier Raiders QB to be solid into his late 30’s or until 40. We can cut him in the later years or add voidable years but then we stack up a bigger dewd cap hit when Carr is washed than when Brees retires. It would be all worth it if he gets us a ring in 2023. But I just dont buy that we are getting a ring in 2023 with David Carr along with characters like Andrus Peat, likely Kamara and Maye suspensions, an older Jordan and Mathieu, etc. We need to clean up our cap and get younger. We aren’t an Alex Smith away from a ring, we are a Patrick Maholmes away.

If Carr was willing to greatly reduce his salary to about $20 million a year it might be fair for him and not a terrible deal if the trade price was cheap, but still I feel it is not a good deal for a cap poor team like us that will have to back load a ton of money even for that and commit to a lot of dead cap if it doesnt work out.