The Deep QB Draft
 

The Deep QB Draft

With five (six?) college quarterbacks set to be solid first-round candidates on April 29, I asked five people who’ve studied the tape on the class how they’d rank the best passers. Lots of similarities—except, as I mentioned, from Chris Simms.

Chris Simms, NBC, Former NFL QB

1. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young. Best pure thrower in the draft, most explosive arm in the draft. Has Mahomes/Rodgers magician type of traits. I think he’s more pro-ready than Trevor Lawrence.

2. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Big, strong-armed, and played in a lot of big-time games. Still untapped potential. Throwing is not as consistent as Wilson or Mac Jones, but has great tools.

3. Mac Jones, Alabama. A machine. Best processor of information I’ve seen this year—the way Joe Burrow was. Throws a perfect spiral that hits the bullseye almost every throw. The way Alabama called plays, you could tell they trusted him more than Tua.

4. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M. Way under the radar. Don’t know why. Third-purest thrower, behind Wilson and Jones. When pocket’s collapsing, can still throw a perfect 20-yard out. I think he’s a first-round talent. After my rankings came out, I had people in NFL text me, “Damn you. Wish you hadn’t brought his name up in the conversation.” Some teams love him.

5. Justin Fields, Ohio State. An Adonis. Built like Cam Newton. Great runner. Some inconsistencies in his throwing—mechanics and accuracy. Too many times when the mechanics lead to throws that aren’t effective.

6. Trey Lance, North Dakota State. I like his throwing and mechanics more than Fields. Wideout-type speed, really strong arm. But there’s a lack of experience, and often looks at one guy and makes a throw. Probably needs to sit for a year. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him last till the second round.

Dan Orlovsky, ESPN, Former NFL QB

1. Lawrence. Elite fundamentals, elite talent. Untapped potential because of subpar scheme in college. Most consistent high level of play—we take it for granted.

2. Wilson. Omar Vizquel hands at QB. Very natural thrower of the football with the most “holy cow” throws in this draft. Play every snap with a belief there’s a big play out there somewhere on the field.

3. Fields. Physical talent is off the charts. Throws very well on the run. Will have to develop throwing to covered guys. Covered in college is often times open in NFL. Needs to be less “deliberate.”

4. Jones. Most impressive tape of any guy. Makes me say “so well done” the most. Perfect case of traits versus tape. Isn’t fast, but plays incredibly fast. I will know draft night if he’s going to be good (most dependent on where he goes).

5. Lance. Reminds me some of Dak Prescott. As good a deep ball thrower as anyone in the draft. Confidence in decisions. He’s an oxymoron—has a calm restlessness style of play.

Mike Renner, Pro Football Focus

1. Lawrence. He doesn’t have weaknesses. Not a Josh Allen arm, not Joe Burrow-accurate. But he’s NFL-ready. Very reminiscent of Andrew Luck. Can be a top-12 NFL quarterback in the NFL as a rookie.

2. Wilson. How much do you love big, highlight-reel impressive throws on every tape? Throws on the move, downfield, from different arm angles. Was not under pressure much. Didn’t play top competition.

3. Fields. Very accurate. For his career, the most accurate quarterback we’ve ever charted. His average depth of target is two yards farther than [ex-Buckeye] Dwayne Haskins. Plus, a legit weapon as a runner.

4. Lance. Probably the most impressive physical skill set of any QB in the draft. Probably the strongest arm, and he’s an excellent runner. Accuracy isn’t what the others have, but you fall in love with what he could be.

5. Jones. Doesn’t have the arm strength or mobility of the others. Might not make the special throws. But he’s accurate, with a very quick release, operated a good offense at a high level of a good offense. Outplayed Tua.

Greg Cosell, Analyst, “NFL Matchup” show

1. Lawrence. What consistently stood out was how precisely accurate he was on intermediate and deep throws. Bring the designed QB run game to an offense. Has an aggressive, turn-it-loose throwing mentality. Will be a day one NFL starter.

2. Wilson. His 2020 tape shows a QB whose game was built on pocket efficiency and off-schedule movement. My sense is he’s a combination of structured system efficiency with precise ball location and second-reaction improvisation.

Cosell has not ranked the order of Fields, Lance and Jones. Fields has a compact delivery and plus arm strength, Cosell said, but “did not show a natural feel for timing and anticipation—needed to see it before turning it loose.” Lance is “the most intriguing QB prospect” this year with great traits and a live arm; “it would not surprise me if Lance was a very good NFL QB three years down the road once he gains more experience and coaching.” Jones, Cosell said, is experienced with NFL route concepts and RPO, but he was concerned about Jones’ ability “to play outside of structure and make off-schedule plays.”

One more note from Cosell: “Jones is the most fascinating prospect. Almost every coach you talk to says second-reaction movement is almost essential for NFL quarterbacks now. Yet Jones has none and is not a good athlete. It will be interesting.”

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network Draft Analyst

1. Lawrence. Such a unique package. When you have that size and athletic ability, and he’s shown the ability to make plays outside the system too. Played against a high level for a long period.

2. Wilson. You’re getting pushback from a lot of folks who maybe didn’t watch as much of him. But there’s a lot of support for Zach around the league. He played the best this season, but there’s a difference between playing the best and being the best quarterback. If he hadn’t had that shoulder surgery [labrum surgery in 2019], I might be having some of Chris [Simms’] courage, putting Zach number one.

3. Lance. Lance and Fields are very close. Both physical, strong, aggressive, tough demeanor. It comes down to decision-making. Lance protects the football, has poise and doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way. Trusts what he sees. Is he ready right now? It’s more of a long-term play. I believe in the kid.

4. Fields. A little more accurate and consistent, but at times he got a little reckless with the ball. That bothered me. At times, he holds the ball too long. You can speed up your clock, which he needs to do.

5. Jones. Because his athletic tools are limited, it puts pressure on the organization to build up the rest of the roster. You’ve got to have a good offensive line in front of him.

Peter King



It's Trey lance or Mac Jones this year, IMHO, if the Saints even get a chance.

Re: The Deep QB Draft
 

This draft for the saints is more important than ever IMO . We have to hit and hit hard , cuts to come will let u no why


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Kellen Mond ?

Didn't expect him in the top 5 of NFL QB prospects.

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I have no idea what to think of in regards to Mac Jones. Alabama has a pretty poor history of producing pro quarterbacks. They work with so much talent over there that it makes their QB prospects extremely hard to evaluate.

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I would not want them to take Jones. JMO.

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Question...we are still waiting for Gotohell to take away another pick for Kamara’s violations of “health” protocols, right? So, the Saints will likely have at least one less pick than scheduled as I understand things. Am I wrong (I hope so)?

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This draft is deeper than just the ordained 5-6 QB's. There are other sleeper QB's out there (particularly Ian Book) and I have a feeling at least a few of those sleepers will hit and be solid NFL QB's.

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Knowing Roger G, they'll take away our 3rd rounder we got for 2 Glove Teddy :(.

Let's see if anything happens to Pittsburgh, Broncos or Ravens for a similar Covid violation.

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Do you seriously think there are six or seven starting quality QB's in the draft? Historically there are seldom more than three or four that ever become full-time starters. Usually less than that. Of those three or four only one or two become what could be called "franchise QB's". Sure, there was the greatest draft class ever in 1983 with Marino, Elway, Kelly, and O'Brien. You can even throw in Tony Eason who started his share of games, but that an extremely rare year.

Next was probably 2004 with Rivers, Big Ben, and Eli. Matt Schaub would be the only other notable starter.

2005 may be the most starters with Rodgers, Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassell, Kyle Orton, and Jason Campbell. All spent time as regular starters, but only one or two were franchise quality in my book.

You probably have to go back to 1971 for the most impactful class with Ken Anderson, Jim Plunkett, Archie, Theismann, Lynn Dickey, and Dan Pastorini.

When Peyton was selected in 1998 the other starters were Matt Hasselbeck, Brian (not Bob) Griese, Charlie Batch, and Ryan Leaf.

This just puts things in perspective. Finding a true franchise QB can take decades. Even coming across what could be considered a quality starter is still very uncommon. It's not even that often that a good journeyman QB like Fitzpatrick comes around.

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Godhell will make a statement and take a third round just to get his points across that this will not be tolerated by the Saints. Everyone else gets off Scott free. Hell, Goodell may give one of the offending teams our draft pick. :argue:

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To be honest, the Saints were multiple offenders. The Raiders got the same treatment for the same violations.

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Saints Hater Chris Sims' been sniffing glue ever since he couldn't hold his daddy's jock strap. Maybe it affected his brain too as evidenced from his questionable foosball commentary. :confused:

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Detractors may argue the same for Burreraux? Nawhhh, it can't be.

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I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me.

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Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row.

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https://media1.tenor.com/images/5f97...temid=10266040

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So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend?

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I see what you're saying here on these guys …

For me, I simply believe Mac Jones will struggle at the NFL level. Decent arm, could make all the right throws but this was at Bama. A machine with clean pockets to throw out of. No one will be open in the NFL.

Mac better hope he is selected by a team with a decent to good O line. Otherwise, we could see Burrow (Cincy has the worst O line in football) part II and a torn ACL :(. I think Kurt Cousins will be his ceiling at the NFL level in the right system.

No clue on Trevor or Fields but I think Mond is a career back up.

Personally, I hope we go CB, LB or O line at #28. Safer picks IMO.

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Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option.

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Most fans around here are really high on Jones because he’s an SEC player and they don’t take the time to look at other prospects who are obviously much better. I think Jones had bust written all over him and I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 ft pole. I would honestly rather draft a developmental guy Payton believes in and roll with Winston.

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Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at
Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart.

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That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted.

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Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject.

NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016)

It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others.

But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me.

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Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception.

It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result.

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I agree that the data is limited, but it is relevant in its recent nature. Probably more relevant because it all involves seven round drafts, modern research means, and the combine.

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They may not have been “creaml of the crop” but 8-1 with backup QBs is still 8-1. I also didn’t say any QB could come in, I Mentioned a few names I thought would be able to keep the team competitive with a full training camp and
Pre-season.

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Oh wow data my asre, didn’t 2gloves go to Seattle and whip there asre, I’m so much ready for what ever comes the BnG way


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Jamison Winston is our qb for the next 3 yearrrrrrrs, my bad did I say that


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Agree with most of this Guido. But not that part about Payton's days being numbered. I think he wants to prove he can win without Brees.

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There aren't even statistically slim rosy scenarios for the team and 2021 Guido, only a scenario that feeds your desires.

If Drew stays we are hit with $12.5M, if he leaves we are hit with $11.5M this year and next.

If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. If he stays with a less talented roster there is a higher probability he will get injured again.. We can rationalize his injuries in 2019 and 2020 as flukes but two flukes starts a trend and he is getting injured because either the line cant protect him or he cant protect himself anymore. Those rib fractures happened over time, not because he fell once.

It is time for a new dawn Guido whether you like it or not. We cant have any sort of quarterback discussion on these forums without you coming in and making Drew the center of the discussion. Nothing in what Smash posted is about Drew, he isn't even mentioned, I was hoping you would respond with something other than what you did. :bng:

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Not sure I agree with this Oak. In that playoff game they had an injured Thomas, no Hill, no Murray, no consistent WR behind Sanders, and no Harris after the first quarter. Looking back, Brees had no healthy, quality targets to throw to in that game outside of Sanders and Kamara. The only players lost so far are Easton (providing Ruiz continues to improve he’s expendable), Cook ( who cost the game IMO) and Hill (great blocker but easily replaceable in the pass game).

The team got hit with the injury bug late while Tampa got healthy at the right time aided by a late season bye. Loomis is doing his restructure work. Kamara, Thomas, and Oline quality will still be there in 2021. I don’t think there will be a massive talent drop off like you are predicting. We will see though.

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We aren't at a point to say 'we will see' just yet as we do not have our roster yet. Your scenario excludes 1/2 the team as you did not account for the defenses contribution to the 2020 season and you also did not recognize that we still have $40M in cuts to make.

That last $40M will hurt badly, largest easiest moves have been made the rest will dig deeply into our depth, football is a game of attrition not who starts. The Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns applies to the rest of our cap cutting efforts.

You may have forgotten that we still need another QB regardless of Drew's decision? If he stays we need a 3rd as he has not played a 16 game season since 2018 and Taysom is utilized quite a bit in non QB roles, if he leaves then we still need at least a starter or back up for Taysom. Winston is not counted against the cap because he is a free agent but needs to be accounted for theoretically because we need another QB.

Someone asked how much is left to be able to start the season under the cap? Well, we aren't 1/2 way to Disney Land just yet.

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So, like I said, we will see what happens.

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If Winston cleans up the int's we're set.

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Don't forget he's a free agent. He'll go to the highest bidder and we are not in position to outbid.

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If the team offers him a decent deal and makes him the starter then I could see Winston hanging around for less.

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Of the teams that are still fishing for a starting QB, most of them likely have worse coaching and O-line than the Saints. It'd be sensible for him to take a decent amount less to stay in NOLA. He'd also get the opportunity to try to prove Tampa wrong twice a year (and maybe again in the playoffs).

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I'd like the Saints to draft their guy for the future. I really would. I enjoy watching Taysom. I'm not a real believer in Winston. But I really don't see either of them as the long term answer. Not really.

Sure would be nice to draft a QB and maybe let him learn for a season then let him take the reigns.

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Honestly I'd be talking to Watson and Wilson agents.
Asking if they will be on the move next year, obviously Watson wants out and it seems Wilson does to but the cap hit Seattle takes makes it unlikely.

If either will 100% come after this season just sign a vet and run him or Hill and trade next off-season.