It is statistically proven that the success rate of draftees declines as their draft position moves downward. In addition, the success rate of picks after the third round are markedly lower than earlier rounds, and not markedly greater than that of undrafted free agents. To me it makes more sense to trade up picking a smaller number of players that have a much higher chance of success, while looking to fill holes in the UDFA market.

Regardless, Loomis and Payton have never traded down to accumulate picks so I doubt they will begin to do so at this point.

Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)...

Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments...

So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks...

Source: PFF | Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams

Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)...

Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments...

So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks...

Source: PFF | Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams

Yeah, I’ve read that article several times, it’s a good analysis. Quant guys are becoming more valuable to coaches and player personnel/scouting teams than ever before.

That being said, is it even mathematically/fiscally possible to build your starting 22’s from nothing but 1’s and 2’s? Give me a team full of Colston’s, Moore’s, Thomas’, Sproles, Bushrods, Evans’, etc... than a team full of Prima Donna #1’s.

Well, for one example, when it comes to the pass rush of a 4-3 front, you've got to have six-seven guys rotating, staying fresh vs better offensive lines...

Last year for the Saints was a great example where we had all four of our DEs rotating in no more than a 70/30 split, and the DTs were nearly the same...

And that example showed quantity was every bit as important and effective as quality...

Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)...

Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments...

So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks...

Source: PFF | Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams

I am so glad that you brought up the 2017 draft, JP! We had seven (7) picks in that draft and six of the seven picks were in the top three rounds! The loan pick outside of the first three rounds (6th for DE Muhahhud) was the only one of the bunch not to develop into starter material This supports the premise that moving out of the latter rounds into the upper rounds gives more chance for success. Beyond the very occasional Colston type hit in a late round, the Saints success has come in the top three rounds FAR more consistently than later.

2006 was a successful anomaly in the annals of Saints drafting with eight picks. Not only did they get lucky with Colston late, but Strief, as well. As the old saying goes, a blind hog can find an acorn. Reggie Bush and Roman Harper were successful picks in that draft per their round one and two selections. Jahri Evans was a pleasant surprise in round four. The three remaining players selected in rounds five and six played a disappointing THREE total games between them in a Saints uniform. But, not bad for the pre-Ireland era.

*lone

And you're wrong, Muhammad did develop as he was for the Colts what Trey What's His Name (As you so disrespectfully refer) Hendrickson-role...

Also, the Saints did learn their lesson the next year in finally releasing an old, incapable veteran in favor of Granderson, who took advantage of his snaps...

Sean is slowly learning as a coach in the NFL, you do have to put in the time and coach the rookies up as well, as it does pay off...

Thank you for the spelling correction! Too bad Muhammad didn't help the Saints.

Yes, 2017 was a tremendous draft class, not based upon the number of picks, but upon the top heavy rounds in which the picks were taken.

Okay, by that logic, what three do you get rid of out of the 2017 class?

Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anzalone, Hendrickson?


With regards to Day 3 picks, dismissing those picks as little to no value is simply short-sided and wrong...

Are the Saints as successful without some of these players taken in the later rounds?

• RG Jahri Evans, R4
  
  
• WRx Marques Colston, R7
  
  
• RT Zach Strief, R7
  
  
• LT Jermon Bushrod, R4
  
  
• LG Carl Nicks, R5
  
  
• P Thomas Morstead, R5
  
  
• WRz Kenny Stills, R5
  
  
• NT Tyeler Davison, R5
  
  
• DT David Onyemata, R4
  
  
• DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6
  
  
• RB Boston Scott, R6
  
  
• LB Kaden Elliss, R7

In fact, many of the early drafts were salvaged because of Day 3 picks...