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SmashMouth 06-22-2021 07:05 AM

Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
1 Attachment(s)
New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston has been one of the NFL’s most fascinating players for several seasons now. Perhaps, not one of the best, but even the briefest look at his statistics is a fascinating experience.

Unfortunately, we were deprived of the roller coaster ride that is Winston last season, as he sat on the bench for most of Drew Brees’ final campaign. Now he is back with a chance to win a starting role following Brees’ retirement. And the data shows that, with a few minor adjustments, Winston can be a star in New Orleans.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/w...is-Winston.png

Jameis Winston’s last season in Tampa Bay was truly unique
Back in 2019, Winston had one of the most bizarre seasons in recent memory. He led the NFL with 5,109 passing yards and was second with 33 passing touchdowns while simultaneously throwing 30 interceptions, tied for the seventh-most in a season in NFL history.

I imagine it was frustrating for Buccaneers fans and the Tampa bay organization, but it was incredible to watch from an outside perspective. Interestingly, as bizarre as Winston’s statistics appear on the surface, the advanced metrics are arguably more riveting.

Despite his inconsistent play, Winston’s advanced metrics have always been excellent
It might be difficult to believe, but Winston has been one of the best quarterbacks according to multiple advanced metrics over the last five seasons. To illustrate this, let’s look at the Offensive Value Metric (OVM). The OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to evaluate players based on how much they contributed to their offense.

much more here

TheOak 06-22-2021 07:49 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Interception numbers generally require context. I urge anyone wanting to discuss Winston's 2019 interception numbers to read the article belowis. Part of the reason for the high total Ints is because he threw more passes than anyone else but that doesn't account for the lions share of the INTs.

Do I expect to see similar numbers with the Saints? No, a one season 2x anomaly is usually one that is removed statistically. Remove the high and the low and he averages 15.6 INT per season, roughly 1 per game which is still by any fans standard high and would have led the league in 2020, #2 in 2018, #3 in 2018.

I have noticed that some people have a different reaction to a Drew Brees interception compared to a Jameis Winston interception.


https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...rceptions-2019

SmashMouth 06-22-2021 08:06 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOak (Post 922316)
Interception numbers generally require context. I urge anyone wanting to discuss Winston's 2019 interception numbers to read the article belowis. Part of the reason for the high total Ints is because he threw more passes than anyone else but that doesn't account for the lions share of the INTs.

Do I expect to see similar numbers with the Saints? No, a one season 2x anomaly is usually one that is removed statistically. Remove the high and the low and he averages 15.6 INT per season, roughly 1 per game which is still by any fans standard high and would have led the league in 2020, #2 in 2018, #3 in 2018.

I have noticed that some people have a different reaction to a Drew Brees interception compared to a Jameis Winston interception.


https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...rceptions-2019

Here's the 2020 numbers

Fun banter... but we'll have to wait and see after this season to fully appreciate.

vpheughan 06-22-2021 09:25 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Arians "No risk it No biscuit" offense:

In 2001, with Tim Couch as Arians’ pupil in Cleveland for the first time, Couch threw 17 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions.

In 2013, Carson Palmer joined forces with Arians in Arizona. And Palmer threw 22 interceptions, against 24 touchdown passes.

Peyton Manning had Arians as a quarterbacks coach with the Colts. Manning threw 26 touchdown passes . . . and 28 interceptions. It’s a single-season rookie record that still stands.

Boston Saint 06-22-2021 10:51 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
No comment 🤐

rezburna 06-22-2021 10:58 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
He’s about to shock the world.

AsylumGuido 06-22-2021 11:24 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by rezburna (Post 922333)
He’s about to shock the world.

I am beginning to think the same. I initially wanted Winston solely so we could use Hill to his full potential elsewhere, but now I am becoming convinced he is going to be the superior option regardless of whether Hill touches the field or not.

jnormand 06-22-2021 11:37 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Boston Saint (Post 922332)
No comment 🤐

Same.

Boston Saint 06-22-2021 11:46 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
If nothing else, both Hill and Winston are being given an honest shot. It’s time for either one (maybe both) to put up or shut up so to speak. Sure hope it happens!

vpheughan 06-22-2021 01:45 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Is posting "No Comment" on a forum that requires a typed response a "COMMENT" ?

Boston Saint 06-22-2021 02:18 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by vpheughan (Post 922339)
Is posting "No Comment" on a forum that requires a typed response a "COMMENT" ?

Especially when I post a comment saying no comment, then I go on to make a comment. 😆

saintsfan1976 06-22-2021 04:16 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
I'm a fan of redemption stories and I want nothing more than for Jameis to fulfill his potential and all the justification he'll feel along with winning.

AsylumGuido 06-22-2021 06:27 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by saintsfan1976 (Post 922342)
I'm a fan of redemption stories and I want nothing more than for Jameis to fulfill his potential and all the justification he'll feel along with winning.

Not to mention our justification we will feel in his winning.

Who Dat!

:bng:

RailBoss 06-23-2021 04:14 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
We haven't been through this QB situation since Brees came to town.
So for us it's back to the Good Ole Days..

Thirty3 06-26-2021 01:46 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
In Jim Mora cadence.Potential?! Potential?! He will BE who HE IS.

Thirty3 06-26-2021 01:47 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
You don’t talk about potential when a guy has been in the league for over half a decade.

AsylumGuido 06-26-2021 02:23 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Thirty3 (Post 922408)
You don’t talk about potential when a guy has been in the league for over half a decade.

There was a guy that had been in the league for half a decade and was not retained by his original team. It was not until he got the opportunity to start for the Saints in Sean Payton's offense that he realized his potential. His name was Drew Brees.

He had never thrown for over 5000 yards before coming to the Saints. Heck, he'd never passed for 4000 yards. He only managed to complete 65% of his passes once in that half a decade (65.5%). He had never topped 27 TD's in a season and more than 17 TD's only twice.

AsylumGuido 06-26-2021 03:46 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Speaking of potential, in Drew Brees' first half a decade he produced 80 TD's. This is the same guy that later met his potential and became the NFL's all-time leader in TD passes. After Jameis Winston's first half a decade he struggled to ONLY 121 TD's, over 50% more than that Drew Brees guy managed in his first half a decade.

In Brees' first half a decade he passed for 12,348 yards. This is the same guy that later met his potential and became the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing. After Jameis Winston's first half a decade he struggled to ONLY 19,737 yards, once again well over 50% more than that Drew Brees guy managed in his first half a decade.

subguy 06-27-2021 07:55 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
It is fun to speculate. I certainly do wish the best for the Saints, since I am a die-hard. If Winston is QB I could care less, I just want wins.

I do have an opinion and fortunately if his lack of good decision making continues to haunt him, we are rather screwed unless Hill or Book can step up.

My gut feeling says this will be a one year experiment.

Being from Florida all of my Bucs friends are truly enjoying their SB win and the cherry on top of their sundae is to see the Saints stuck with Jameis. Many haha's at my expense.

While Brees had a less than stellar last year, his main target Thomas was not up to par either, which did impact that. My hope is Thomas returns solid and others step up. If the receiving corps can create space quickly downfield or in the secondary it will eliminate Winston from being pressed to make the wrong decision.

Thirty3 06-27-2021 08:53 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by rezburna (Post 922333)
He’s about to shock the world.

Or make us all disgusted.

Thirty3 06-27-2021 09:11 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 922409)
There was a guy that had been in the league for half a decade and was not retained by his original team. It was not until he got the opportunity to start for the Saints in Sean Payton's offense that he realized his potential. His name was Drew Brees.

He had never thrown for over 5000 yards before coming to the Saints. Heck, he'd never passed for 4000 yards. He only managed to complete 65% of his passes once in that half a decade (65.5%). He had never topped 27 TD's in a season and more than 17 TD's only twice.

I was going to say that that viewpoint is NUTS, but in your case I'll say hopeful Saints fan blinders. Drew was ALWAYS on an upward projection. Look, I see Winston has talent, but QB REQUIRES good and quick decision making. Drew not being retained was due to INJURY, not poor QB play. I remember watching SD games and thinking, "That Brees kid has got it." Brees and Winston were not retained for FAR different reasons. Winston always reminded me of Aaron Brooks, only not as smart.

Thirty3 06-27-2021 09:51 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 922411)
Speaking of potential, in Drew Brees' first half a decade he produced 80 TD's. This is the same guy that later met his potential and became the NFL's all-time leader in TD passes. After Jameis Winston's first half a decade he struggled to ONLY 121 TD's, over 50% more than that Drew Brees guy managed in his first half a decade.

In Brees' first half a decade he passed for 12,348 yards. This is the same guy that later met his potential and became the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing. After Jameis Winston's first half a decade he struggled to ONLY 19,737 yards, once again well over 50% more than that Drew Brees guy managed in his first half a decade.

In their respective first five starts, Winston won 28 games and Brees 40. QB is more than being able to pass or run. It is decision making, hard work, leadership, confidence, winning, etc. Not having those things will get you FIRED. Drew was never fired. Injury on a free agent year VOLUNTARILY LEFT. Obviously right choice for an injured QB whose team drafted Phillip Rivers because they weren't sure Drew could recover. Miami felt the same way. We didn't.

AsylumGuido 06-27-2021 10:31 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Thirty3 (Post 922421)
I was going to say that that viewpoint is NUTS, but in your case I'll say hopeful Saints fan blinders. Drew was ALWAYS on an upward projection. Look, I see Winston has talent, but QB REQUIRES good and quick decision making. Drew not being retained was due to INJURY, not poor QB play. I remember watching SD games and thinking, "That Brees kid has got it." Brees and Winston were not retained for FAR different reasons. Winston always reminded me of Aaron Brooks, only not as smart.

Not as smart? The Wonderlic measures a person's ability to process information quickly. Winston scored a 27 on the test. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning both scored 28's.

Everything I've ever heard about Winston is how intelligent he is.

"Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher is not surprised by reports that quarterback Jameis Winston impressed NFL teams with the intelligence he demonstrated in interviews at the Combine.

Fisher, who has been a quarterbacks coach, offensive coordinator or head coach for 27 years, said he has never coached a player with the level of football intelligence that Winston possesses.

“Jameis, in football intellect, intelligence level, is as smart as anybody I’ve ever been around,” Fisher said on NFL Network. “You can do so many different things with him and he grasps it. He just doesn’t memorize plays, he understands the concepts of how to attack the coverage, how a play works, where his one-on-one matchups are. He just has a tremendous football intellect that way.”"

Boston Saint 06-27-2021 10:33 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Thirty3 (Post 922422)
In their respective first five starts, Winston won 28 games and Brees 40. QB is more than being able to pass or run. It is decision making, hard work, leadership, confidence, winning, etc. Not having those things will get you FIRED. Drew was never fired. Injury on a free agent year VOLUNTARILY LEFT. Obviously right choice for an injured QB whose team drafted Phillip Rivers because they weren't sure Drew could recover. Miami felt the same way. We didn't.

Two thoughts 30: One is Rivers was drafted before Brees was hurt, so obviously the Charges has more worries about Brees than just his injury.

Second, I never saw Winston smiling and laughing on the sidelines after throwing an Int. I did see Brooks do that. I don’t agree with the comparison. Just my opinion.

Boston Saint 06-27-2021 10:36 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quoted the wrong post Thirty. Sorry.

iceshack149 06-27-2021 11:20 AM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Thirty3 (Post 922422)
In their respective first five starts, Winston won 28 games and Brees 40. QB is more than being able to pass or run. It is decision making, hard work, leadership, confidence, winning, etc. Not having those things will get you FIRED. Drew was never fired. Injury on a free agent year VOLUNTARILY LEFT. Obviously right choice for an injured QB whose team drafted Phillip Rivers because they weren't sure Drew could recover. Miami felt the same way. We didn't.

Perspective is everything. Brees had one of the best RB's to ever play in the NFL in the backfield with him to start his career and a solid defense to boot. He didn't throw it all over the place to stay in games or win them. The Chargers felt that they couldn't pass on a big 6'5" QB when they picked early in the draft (due mostly to poor management of the team from the top down and not Drew Brees, though they made a scape goat out of Drew).

AsylumGuido 06-27-2021 12:00 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Thirty3 (Post 922422)
In their respective first five starts, Winston won 28 games and Brees 40. QB is more than being able to pass or run. It is decision making, hard work, leadership, confidence, winning, etc. Not having those things will get you FIRED. Drew was never fired. Injury on a free agent year VOLUNTARILY LEFT. Obviously right choice for an injured QB whose team drafted Phillip Rivers because they weren't sure Drew could recover. Miami felt the same way. We didn't.

Not sure where your version of history comes from ... BUT ...

First, Philip Rivers was not drafted by the San Diego Chargers. He was drafted by the New York Giants. He was traded to the Chargers for San Diego's 1st round selection, Eli Manning.

Secondly, Philip Rivers was acquired by the Chargers in 2004 and it had nothing to do with Brees' injury which occurred in the final game of the 2005 season.

Third, Brees was offered an incentive laden contract to remain with the Chargers, but gambled on his potential to go elsewhere. It was not because they "weren't sure Drew could recover".

And finally, Jameis Winston was not FIRED as you seem to claim. His contract expired and he was a free agent. He could have resigned with Tampa Bay for a deal similar to the one he agreed to with the Saints, but like Brees, he gambled on his potential to go elsewhere. Now he's looking at a starting gig with the most prolific offensive mind in the NFL.

AsylumGuido 06-27-2021 12:03 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by iceshack149 (Post 922434)
Perspective is everything. Brees had one of the best RB's to ever play in the NFL in the backfield with him to start his career and a solid defense to boot. He didn't throw it all over the place to stay in games or win them. The Chargers felt that they couldn't pass on a big 6'5" QB when they picked early in the draft (due mostly to poor management of the team from the top down and not Drew Brees, though they made a scape goat out of Drew).

Actually, the Chargers did pass on Philip Rivers in the 2004 draft. They selected Eli Manning, instead.

https://cdnph.upi.com/svc/sv/upi/884...-NFL-Draft.jpg

jeanpierre 06-27-2021 12:23 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Mannings were up front they didn't want Eli playing in San Diego because of the way that franchise was run - Lessons from Archie Manning's career ruined by John Mecom...

San Diego knew this and were looking at Rivers also; still selected Manning knowing they'd get Rivers and picks to boot - Saving face, Salvaging a Disadvantaged Hand...

Brees had been inconsistent at that point, even being benched for poor play; San Diego had a prototype in mind at QB, and Brees at 6' 0" wasn't it...

AsylumGuido 06-27-2021 12:28 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jeanpierre (Post 922438)
Mannings were up front they didn't want Eli playing in San Diego because of the way that franchise was run - Lessons from Archie Manning's career ruined by John Mecom...

San Diego knew this and were looking at Rivers also; still selected Manning knowing they'd get Rivers and picks to boot - Saving face, Salvaging a Disadvantaged Hand...

Brees had been inconsistent at that point, even being benched for poor play; San Diego had a prototype in mind at QB, and Brees at 6' 0" wasn't it...

Mismanagement and an inconsistent QB that hadn't reached his potential. Sounds a lot like Tampa Bay and Winston, doesn't it?

K Major 06-27-2021 12:28 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jeanpierre (Post 922438)

Brees had been inconsistent at that point, even being benched for poor play; San Diego had a prototype in mind at QB, and Brees at 6' 0" wasn't it...[/B]

Never knew that.

Getting benched may have worked in his favor. Made him work smarter, faster, stronger. Not to mention a HC that believed in his ability. DB is just built different.

Now he's headed to Canton :bng:.

AsylumGuido 06-27-2021 12:46 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by K Major (Post 922441)
Never knew that.

Getting benched may have worked in his favor. Made him work smarter, faster, stronger. Not to mention a HC that believed in his ability. DB is just built different.

Now he's headed to Canton :bng:.

Yup. In his third season, 2003. He started the first eight games at 1-7 and was benched for Doug Flutie. He came back in week 15 (game 14) and started every game other than the last game of the 2004 season when they had already clinched for the rest of his time there.

gosaints1 06-27-2021 01:02 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by K Major (Post 922441)
Never knew that.

Getting benched may have worked in his favor. Made him work smarter, faster, stronger. Not to mention a HC that believed in his ability. DB is just built different.

Now he's headed to Canton :bng:.

Headed to Canton…, built on a Black & Gold Legacy. Here’s my McDonald’s quote for the world: “I’m loving it”. The fact that I can needle Nick Saban about his failed NFL experiment, regardless of whether picking DB#9 up was his call or not, only makes me smile more. Seriously…, loving it.

Good day for the B&G when the first ballot HOF’er is enshrined!

Thirty3 06-27-2021 03:22 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 922423)
Not as smart? The Wonderlic measures a person's ability to process information quickly. Winston scored a 27 on the test. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning both scored 28's.

Everything I've ever heard about Winston is how intelligent he is.

"Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher is not surprised by reports that quarterback Jameis Winston impressed NFL teams with the intelligence he demonstrated in interviews at the Combine.

Fisher, who has been a quarterbacks coach, offensive coordinator or head coach for 27 years, said he has never coached a player with the level of football intelligence that Winston possesses.

“Jameis, in football intellect, intelligence level, is as smart as anybody I’ve ever been around,” Fisher said on NFL Network. “You can do so many different things with him and he grasps it. He just doesn’t memorize plays, he understands the concepts of how to attack the coverage, how a play works, where his one-on-one matchups are. He just has a tremendous football intellect that way.”"

TESTS??? The REAL tests are the games. 5 years NFL experience. Looking at the resume' I'd give the new guy (Hill) a shot instead of a failed Winston.

Thirty3 06-27-2021 03:23 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 922423)
Not as smart? The Wonderlic measures a person's ability to process information quickly. Winston scored a 27 on the test. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning both scored 28's.

Everything I've ever heard about Winston is how intelligent he is.

"Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher is not surprised by reports that quarterback Jameis Winston impressed NFL teams with the intelligence he demonstrated in interviews at the Combine.

Fisher, who has been a quarterbacks coach, offensive coordinator or head coach for 27 years, said he has never coached a player with the level of football intelligence that Winston possesses.

“Jameis, in football intellect, intelligence level, is as smart as anybody I’ve ever been around,” Fisher said on NFL Network. “You can do so many different things with him and he grasps it. He just doesn’t memorize plays, he understands the concepts of how to attack the coverage, how a play works, where his one-on-one matchups are. He just has a tremendous football intellect that way.”"

And yet you said he didn't know the playbook by week 11. ho-hum

iceshack149 06-27-2021 04:11 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 922437)
Actually, the Chargers did pass on Philip Rivers in the 2004 draft. They selected Eli Manning, instead.

https://cdnph.upi.com/svc/sv/upi/884...-NFL-Draft.jpg

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeanpierre (Post 922438)
Mannings were up front they didn't want Eli playing in San Diego because of the way that franchise was run - Lessons from Archie Manning's career ruined by John Mecom...

San Diego knew this and were looking at Rivers also; still selected Manning knowing they'd get Rivers and picks to boot - Saving face, Salvaging a Disadvantaged Hand...

Brees had been inconsistent at that point, even being benched for poor play; San Diego had a prototype in mind at QB, and Brees at 6' 0" wasn't it...

Exactly.

AsylumGuido 06-27-2021 05:34 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Thirty3 (Post 922453)
And yet you said he didn't know the playbook by week 11. ho-hum

No. I said Hill had two more years of experience with the playbook with Winston having no off-season and limited COVID practices in season at all. Keep trying. You are failing left and right.

AsylumGuido 06-27-2021 05:35 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Thirty3 (Post 922452)
TESTS??? The REAL tests are the games. 5 years NFL experience. Looking at the resume' I'd give the new guy (Hill) a shot instead of a failed Winston.

Failed? You seriously do not know football. :rolleyes:

And thank God you don't have any say.

jeanpierre 06-27-2021 07:23 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 922440)
Mismanagement and an inconsistent QB that hadn't reached his potential. Sounds a lot like Tampa Bay and Winston, doesn't it?

Mismanagement? #WTF?!?

Are you that detached from reality that you do not realize Tampa Bay just jettisoned Jameis Winston, signed Tom Brady, and won a Super Bowl?

jnormand 06-27-2021 07:35 PM

Re: Jameis Winston’s potential with the New Orleans Saints
 
You guys are arguing with someone that refuses to see anyone's logic except his own. Which most of the time is based on popular opinion or what makes him look smart. Lol


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