Let’s look at some numbers. In 2006, his first year as starter with the team, Brees through his first three games had:

3 TDs
2 Int
7.2 yards/attempt
team 25.3 ppg
Horn, Colston, Moore, Henderson, Bush, Deuce as offensive weapons.
4 pre-season games to work with the first team starters.
0 games where team was displaced by Hurricane
0 coaches missing for Covid protocol.

Winston in his first 3 starts for the Saints has:

7 TDs
2 Ints
6.1 Y/A
24.3 ppg
Kamara...and a bunch of guys less talented than Brees had.
1 preseason game working with starters.
3 games team displaced by Hurricane.
5 coaches at least missed from Covid protocols.

Now, you can call someone pointing out these facts as being an apologist if it makes you feel better. I call it being a realist. I also don’t see the comparative “ineffectiveness” you are complaining about. Payton had two seasons watching Winston and I don’t think he would make him his starter if he had doubts about his ability to pass the ball downfield. But, as you say, time will tell.