Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job

BakoSaint · 11-03-2022, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Indeed. I made this point months ago. When some users were saying things like “I’d never send him to Dallas” or “I’d hold out for a ransom”. Saints only have his rights through 2024. A smart team will wait and give us nothing. Especially since the ball is in Sean’s court.

I disagree. NFL teams are worth $5 billion now. I am not an accountant but my rough understanding of net present value and cash flow is that if something is worth $5 billion, probably the next 7 or so years of it are at least half that value due to the time value of money, and the next 1 year is probably about 10%. So the privilege of owning and NFL team for the 2023 season is worth maybe $500 million based on what people are willing to pay to own one indefinitely. Just like you if you leased a new car you might pay 10% of its value to lease it for a year or something. So I disagree with the idea that an owner would wait a year to sign Sean Payton, if they really wanted him, to save a couple draft picks. If they have a coach they don't have faith in, throwing away another year with that coach is very costly in terms of the time value of money. Also they run many risks. The coach they lack faith in may have a lucky year that makes him hard to fire. There may be a scandal or controversy that makes him hard to fire. Sean may take a liking to broadcasting with an extra year. Another team may seize the moment and change Seans mind and make him an offer he can't refuse. Or they may have to fire the existing coach and then a new coach or new mid year interim coach catches fire and they can't let him go without his joining a lawsuit or something. Just like this year McCarthy may be doing too well to fire. We don't know what happens next year. Maybe Andy Reid retires and sure Sean Payton loved the situation in San Diego but suddenly he is offered Maholmes and sees that as more of a sure thing to cement his legacy as the first coach to win a ring with two teams. Maybe Hebert chokes in the playoffs or gets hurt. If a team wants Sean, there is much more value and certainty for them to get him now than to wait 2 years and get him in 2025 because thats a long long long time and that owner may die of a stroke or see Payton coaching the Patriots before its 2025. You don't become a billionaire so you can still patiently wait to pursue expensive hobbies when you are already in your 60's or whatever. Whatever picks they trade for Payton will be gone in 2025 anyway. Payton can say thats the only team he will play for and they can only offer chump change but if we threaten to make them wait 2 years any team will fold because waiting 2 years is untenable.

11-03-2022, 04:04 PM	#11
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,392	Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job Originally Posted by Boston Saint Indeed. I made this point months ago. When some users were saying things like “I’d never send him to Dallas” or “I’d hold out for a ransom”. Saints only have his rights through 2024. A smart team will wait and give us nothing. Especially since the ball is in Sean’s court. I disagree. NFL teams are worth $5 billion now. I am not an accountant but my rough understanding of net present value and cash flow is that if something is worth $5 billion, probably the next 7 or so years of it are at least half that value due to the time value of money, and the next 1 year is probably about 10%. So the privilege of owning and NFL team for the 2023 season is worth maybe $500 million based on what people are willing to pay to own one indefinitely. Just like you if you leased a new car you might pay 10% of its value to lease it for a year or something. So I disagree with the idea that an owner would wait a year to sign Sean Payton, if they really wanted him, to save a couple draft picks. If they have a coach they don't have faith in, throwing away another year with that coach is very costly in terms of the time value of money. Also they run many risks. The coach they lack faith in may have a lucky year that makes him hard to fire. There may be a scandal or controversy that makes him hard to fire. Sean may take a liking to broadcasting with an extra year. Another team may seize the moment and change Seans mind and make him an offer he can't refuse. Or they may have to fire the existing coach and then a new coach or new mid year interim coach catches fire and they can't let him go without his joining a lawsuit or something. Just like this year McCarthy may be doing too well to fire. We don't know what happens next year. Maybe Andy Reid retires and sure Sean Payton loved the situation in San Diego but suddenly he is offered Maholmes and sees that as more of a sure thing to cement his legacy as the first coach to win a ring with two teams. Maybe Hebert chokes in the playoffs or gets hurt. If a team wants Sean, there is much more value and certainty for them to get him now than to wait 2 years and get him in 2025 because thats a long long long time and that owner may die of a stroke or see Payton coaching the Patriots before its 2025. You don't become a billionaire so you can still patiently wait to pursue expensive hobbies when you are already in your 60's or whatever. Whatever picks they trade for Payton will be gone in 2025 anyway. Payton can say thats the only team he will play for and they can only offer chump change but if we threaten to make them wait 2 years any team will fold because waiting 2 years is untenable.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,392