| BakoSaint |
06-03-2023 11:22 AM |
Re: Official 2023 OFFSEASON Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsylumGuido
(Post 974839)
Very rarely does anyone hit on a QB taken outside of the top few draft slots. It does happen, though, and is why the chance needs taken. There's even the outside chance they can be good enough to be a backup someday. That in itself could be considered a successful pick.
That said, most teams would have drafted ten QB's over that 16 year stretch. And likely would have missed on eight of them. The draft has never been the primary source of starting QB's for our Saints. Not since Manning, of course. Although, I doubt that is entirely predetermined. Just the way things have worked out over the years.
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Few generally means about 3, perhaps 4-5. I would say it is rarer to hit on a QB outside the top 10, top dozen, or top half of the 1st round. But in the last decade or so there may actually be more big hits drafted 6th-12th than 1st-5th. I just say this, knowing its a minor distinction, because its not healthy to get into the psychology that if Derek Carr does not work out we need to sell the farm and trade out of the draft for 3 years to get the #1 overall pick. NFL teams have not been great at figuring out among the elite 3 or so QBs each draft who is the elite of the elite.
It's a popular cliche in business circles that 'that's how we've always done it' is the most dangerous thing you can say. I think other things are more dangerous, but that being said its not really relevent that the Saints have not hit on a QB in the draft since Archie Manning. Most of the teams that have won Super Bowls the last few decades have hit on a QB in the draft and the fact that we happened to get Brees in free agency is nice, but it doesn't mean we can throw out the model that has worked for most teams. Montana, Aikman, Elway, Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Maholmes, etc were all draft picks, many not in the top half of the first round. So we should probably still consider that plan A and free agency plan B when we need our next QB because it works more often and tends to produce more Super Bowls when it works (because you get the QB on a cheap salary). I think its also important to consider that blockbuster trades to get into the top 3 picks have not produced many of those success stories. And that makes sense because yeah maybe you get a great qb cheap but you saddle that QB with more expectations and pressure and then you have less draft picks to give that qb protection, weapons, and a defense.
Drafting a good backup QB can be a successful pick if you need a backup QB. If you are paying $15 million to a TE/QB who can't run routes very well and is 3rd on your TE depth chart and $10 million to your previous QB who is still an above average backup to delay a dead cap hit that will be just as tempting to pay to delay next year and the year after, maybe backup QB is not your greatest need. |
