We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

I am glad we have been winning but I am skeptical of folks who think we are some kind of 2023 Super Bowl contender who should trade all our future first rounders, f the cap, and can win it all.

Looking at our record this year I noticed a trend.

Lets define a stable established QB as one who was a regular starter last year and has not been benched for performance this year. We have not beat any team with such a starter able to play a full game against us this year.

Consider our wins:

1. Atlanta we beat Mariota, a 2022 backup making his first start with a new team with little fanfare.

2. Seattle we beat Geno Smith, a 2022 backup making his 5th start after inheriting the job with little fanfare.

3. Las Vegas we beat Derek Carr, who although established at the time has since been benched for performance after never suceeding in his new coaches system. Carr was also benched late in this game.

4. Rams Matt Stafford was an established starter but he has been plagued with injury and Bryce Perkins, a no name backup, took over mid way in a close game and took the loss.

5. Atlanta Desmond Ridders first start as a rookie second day pick.

6. Deshaun Watson’s rusty second game back after 2 years out of football.

7. Gardner Minshew filling in for Jalen Hurts.

Compare this to our losses. 6 losses to stable established starters: brady 2x, cousins, murray, burrow, jackson. Loss to garrapalo who was a starter last year and regained starting job this year after stupid experiment with draft bust. Loss to Kenny Pickett the only 1st round pick rookie we faced. Loss to Baker Mayfield who was a starter last year, came into the season a starter this year, and is starting again with another team now.

Its nice that we can beat teams trying out new QBs. But basically we are not beating anyone who brings a good stable qb who has been starting for his team since last year with safe job and healthy. Perhaps Allen is not improving, perhaps he just got a lucky to have 3 games in a row against the kind of QBs he has beat all year.

I dont know that we need to dump Allen at all costs if no clearly way better alternative like Payton or Harbaugh is available. But I think getting too excited about this streak and thinking we are Lombardi bound because of Thomas, Lattimore, and Peat inevitably being so healthy when they are a year older is unwise. We need to rebuild.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Paralysis by analysis.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

It's hard to take you seriously, Bako, when you can't get your "facts" even close to being right.

The Saints faced Watson in his FOURTH game back, not his second.

There are several other "stretches" you made to attempt to support your argument, but I have already wasted too much time responding, much the less even reading what you posted.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Minor errors happen. I remembered the last game he missed was against the bucs and may have mixed up with when we played the bucs which was 2 games before. And when I google searched watson it just showed 3 games in googles preview of his game log. But anyway yay crown Dennis Allen the heir to Lombardi because we beat a rusty Watson in his 4th game back from a giant scandal and missing all 2021 and most of 2022, a mediocre David Carr on his way to being benched for inability to tread water in his new coaches convulted system, and 2.5 quarters of a creaky old Stafford. The facts are that if you look the best most stable established QBs we faced its clearly guys like Brady, Jackson, Murray, and Burrow. And since Cousins has not been benched he comes in above Carr. And we lost to all those guys. There are borderline cases like Carr, Garappalo, Stafford, and Mayfield who all started last year but have had issues this year and it seems we are 50/50 on those guys. But clearly there is a pattern: clear undisputed starting qb this and last year we lose. Didn’t start last year and wasn’t a 1st round pick rookie we win. Borderline guy who started last year but has issues this year we win. We are not suddenly lombardi contender because we got to play the shaky qbs we can beat for 3 games in a row. There is no indication we can beat Maholmes, Allen, Jackson, Rodgers, Brady, Hebert, Hurts, or Prescott. We have not beat any QB in that class all year.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Not following Bako because you cannot have a reasonable conversation on his core positions … Not worth the energy.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Don't blame you. I've periodically done the same but end up opening him back up again hoping for different.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

My core position is that Mickey Loomis is a washed up GM and we need to rebuild. Your core position is that he a good GM and we are poised to win it all next year if we max out the cap and trade up. Our core positions are opposite, and I don’t see you moving on yours either.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

I agree with the overall synopsis that we have only beaten backup quarterbacks. There may be one or two contributing factors that change rookie to inexperienced quarterback. We definitely need a better quarterback than what we've got. Andy Dalton has done well considering he was our backup this year. However, Andy Dalton is not the future here.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

See THAT ^^^ is one "core position" that a lot of Fans aren't ready willing or able to face, let alone hold. Easier to swat at symptoms and blame our losing on injuries, mistakes, practicing on bad turf, refs, whatever - than to demand that root causes be addressed. The root causes cover all the symptoms, but too many Fans can't seem to accept that fact.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

I see you have no true understanding of my "core position". However, you have continuously ran yours into the ground by attempting to shove it down everyone's throats numerous times a day for months. That's what I mean by wasting my time and effort. I'm not sure what audience you are trying to reach, but it surely isn't anyone that can make your dreams come true.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Those "too many fans" are not obsessed with what you feel is a fact. It is what it is, Sinner. There is nothing you can say or do that can change that fact no matter how many times a day you gripe about it in a forum.

I am truly sorry that you do not appear to get any enjoyment out of our Saints. Personally, I cannot wait for game time and after the game is over, win or lose, I know I have been graced by being able to follow my Saints and have had varying moments of excitement regardless of the outcome.

:(

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

See, the thing is, I SEE your position clearly, as I have felt the same way for years and years, through the ups and downs. To "gripe" is absolutely natural in a Fans Forum, ESPECIALLY during a season like this one. If the outcome (WINNING) wasn't important, the game wouldn't exist. That fact doesn't require your obsession, in order for it to exist. If there truly is nothing that a Fan can say or do to change that fact, then we would have to at least admit that as customers and loyal fans, our viewpoint and experience doesn't matter. That's a bitter pill to swallow, and no amount of singing "Kumbaya" can make it any sweeter.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Our experience definitely matters to NFL managements. That's why the Saints are investing $750 million is stadium upgrades to further improve the gameday experience. On the other hand, our viewpoints, not so much. On certain topics the fan viewpoint can be relevant (bathroom and concessions wait times, etc.), but when it comes to football operations, the viewpoints of some fans are mostly likely seen as meaningless when balanced against the viewpoints of the industry experts.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Guido's core position.... what rumor can i start today?:rolleyes:

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

One more point here. I understand griping. I have had some gripes about Carmichael's playcalling, but I know there's nothing I can do about it. It's actually improved the past three games, however.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

As I said, I DO SEE your position clearly. It obviously gives you comfort to blame "forces outside the team's control" while we segue into the post-season watching OTHER TEAMS, who have outside forces under their control, continue to try to WIN for their Fans, as much as for "industry experts".

It's a bitter pill to swallow. I know, I was there for years. If it makes you feel better to watch all this talent and heart and spirit go to waste and blow games in a $750 million upgraded stadium, you'll have a good time next season. No doubt.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Oh, I'll have a good time next season in that stadium, but I believe we'll be winning games left and right because there's no way we suffer three straight years of unprecedented injuries.

Who Dat!

:bng:

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

And if we do suffer another year of the unprecedented injury of piss-poor management, coaching and conditioning, at least bathroom and concessions wait times will most likely be upgraded.

WHO DAT!

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

This is true, but I for one will not blame it on piss-poor management, coaching and conditioning. I'll put the blame where it shines most brightly. Improved conditioning would not eliminate the vast majority of key injuries we have encountered. I'll give you coaching, or more accurately playcalling and game planning on the offensive side of things. That supposedly piss-poor management has lost no more than seven games in a given year since 2004. Not many franchises in the league can claim that degree of consistent relevance.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Well, it's that time of year where we get to watch the franchises that CAN claim the degree of relevance of overcoming all of the outside forces and unforeseen circumstances that our piss-poor management and coaching/strength conditioning couldn't. These franchises will be in the Playoffs. We won't.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

It's amazing that our piss-poor management has won more games over the past 15 years than all but a couple of other teams and has made it to the playoffs more often than our previous 35 plus years combined. Go figure.

;)

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Not this year though... Go figure.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Injuries are a *****. :(

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Gravity S*cks.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

And nobody has control over either.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

The teams (even/especially the bad ones) that beat us this year seemed to.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Kind of like we beat the Eagles. Welcome to the NFL. Any Given Sunday. So many uncontrollable outside factors. Those factors inexplicably fell in their favor. Had we been healthy those may have been overcome.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

coulda-woulda-shoulda - - - - didn't.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Coulda-woulda-shoulda ... have before ... will again. Disappointment is, well, disappointing. Sh!t happens, but we hopefully have our own health and the ability to watch and pull for our Saints for many years to come. That's all that is truly important.

Have a happy and healthy New Year, Sinner!

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

17 years ago Mickey Loomis and Tom Benson interviewed Sean Payton and hired him. Then a few months later Sean Payton, Mickey Loomis, and Tom Benson took a shot on a badly injured Drew Brees after the Dolphins passed on him. Payton and Brees led new Orleans to a great record from 2006-2020. Mickey Loomis was an accountant who was in a room where some good decisions happened 17 years ago. He is best known for his skill at borrowing money to win now in exchange for debt that he has to borrow money just to cancel out and try to break even in the future, at the expense of roster flexibility to move on from players who no longer fit the system or can't stay healthy. Since Payton and Brees left, all Loomis knows it to do Loomis which is borrowing and borrowing and borrowing and destroying our roster flexibility and that does not work when you no longer have Payton and Brees.

17 years is a long time. In the time that Mickey Loomis was GM of the Saints, Jerry Reese became GM of the New York Giants, won two Super Bowls over Tom Brady with coaching and scouting experience, declined, and was let go. Reese is younger than Loomis and more successful but can't find a job because for some reason he is not enough like a son to any owner like Loomis is. Lots of GM's were great and then 17 years later were not great. Al Davis was one of the best GM's in league history if he has just not tried to keep doing it forever.

We can't let our pre-Loomis record impact our decisions moving forward. It is not relevent. We can't let past failure become an excuse to accept present mediocrity or it will lead to future failure. We let go the first coach who led us to the playoffs. Soon after we had a new coach and won our first playoff game. Then we let go of that coach and GM and we won a super bowl. Now that coach left and that GM is washed. The trend is that we have moved forward only by letting go of the past. Hanging onto 2009 out of fear of 1980 is what will get us back to 1980 not 2009. With a new regime we can win multiple Super Bowls because our fans are our greatest asset not a geriatric accountant.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

^^^ THIS.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

More white noise.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

I appreciate differing perspectives from the norm, which I think BakoSaint's post is. Many fans (we know a few on this board) think that the Saints management knows better than any of us so whatever they decide to do is always the correct decision.
That said, I think that the Saints have a solid replacement on the player selection side of GM decisions with Jeff Ireland as evidenced by the strong drafts the Saints have had since he's been with the team. Payton doesn't make those decisions any longer and Loomis remains the glorified accountant.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Loomis is but the glue that holds the front office together. Khai Hartley is the true wizard behind the brilliant bookkeeping. Ireland definitely does a great job with the college personnel division, as well. Michael Parenton will be moving into his second year as head of pro personnel.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

In that case Loomis is the glue that holds dysfunction together and enables terrible mistakes that hold us back from a great legacy. Our bookkeeping is not brilliant it is a reckless disaster. It does not take a PhD in Neurorocketry to realize you can take an existing long term contract and restructure it to add two voidable years, convert the upcoming years salary to a bonus, and prorate that and other bonuses over the length of the contract including the voidable years, thus pushing lots of IOU's back to later years. And of course players will usually agree because often the salary and bonuses they agree to extend were not guaranteed originally and would be paid later, but as bonuses they get the cash in hand guaranteed today. And then the same thing can be done to the next years salary forever, and its always cheaper in the short term to push the money forward than to cut ties, only you keep paying forever.

Our bookkeeping strategy is not brilliant and there is no GM or human or animal mascot in the league that does not know this can be done. Instead, there are sound fundamental reasons no other team takes this strategy as far as we do or uses it as long as we do. The biggest reason is that you totally give up roster flexibility. Every day other teams make hard decisions and cut players whose contracts have proved a bust. The Falcons got rid of Julio Jones and Matt Ryan at just the right time for their statistical declines. Players like Carson Wentz and Nick Foles have been unloaded over and over. But because we backload so much money, any contract bust for us is a giant cap hit even late in their contract because we backload over and over. And since we have so many backloaded contracts we always lead the league in the amount we are over the upcoming cap. Some of our players could be cut with less cap hit than Matt Ryan, though still a lot. But since we are so far over the cap, we can't even take those hits. We become trapped in tons of bad contracts that every other team in the league would cut.

This pattern of being trapped in bad contracts causes more damage for several reasons. For one, by being among our highest paid players, guys like Andrus Peat and Michael Thomas become roll models for our younger players, and the message they send is that giving 50% is enough, just keep up with the limping guy and you are a star. Second, even our stars know they can slack off or get into a bar fight or become a primaddona on social media or whatever and not risk a cut, because we are the one team that can't afford to cut anyone. Also, since we can't cut busts with big contacts we have to play them, because it would look bad for the GM if Andrus Peat was making $15 million a year as the backup and there would be calls to cut him that the team could not afford. So guys like Peat must start. So that creates a predicament that we can't risk drafting extra guards in the mid rounds who might outplay Peat for much less money and create an unsolvable problem for management. So, we have to trade away most of our draft picks so that our overpaid busts don't have threats to their jobs that could create a problem for management. Don't be surprised if some long term contract dispute or personality conflict comes up where we suddenly trade away Olave or Shaheed for cheap because we can't afford to cut Michael Thomas but management can't afford to lose face by benching him.

So managing the cap the way Hartley and Loomis do is not brilliant. It is short sighted and dumb. Other teams avoid it whenever possible because they know it destroys roster flexibility which destroys accountability. Also it keeps us perpetually broke and causes us to be unable to retain solid players like Hendrickson and Williams while we keep paying guys like Thomas and Peat year after year. Also the voidable years hurt us with compensatory picks, as the contracts will be voided and the players will be treated as cuts when their contracts expire, guaranteeing us no compensation if they do find a market.

Jeff Ireland makes some good draft picks. He could do better if he had more draft picks and more money to retain the ones who perform well and cut them when they stop performing well. But he doesn't, because Loomis is an enabler and Hartley and Loomis are brilliant at keeping us in perpetual debt paying guys like Peat $15 million a year forever. If you can't take out the trash, your house becomes the dump. Loomis has us throwing out the kids to make room for trash. We call Loomis an Hartley wizards, we might as well call Samuel Bankman Fried and Caroline Ellison wizards for their work with FTX crypto exchange. They are wizards at accruing debt and painting themselves into a corner.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

I wonder how many of those names you mentioned Sean Payton will take with him? My biggest fear is that he will take away our most valuable recruiting asset, Jeff Ireland.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

I wouldn't call the bookkeeping "brilliant" when we lose impactful players that we drafted and just kick the cap situation down the road consistently.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

It's "brilliant" if one enjoys getting that can kicked down the road and directly into the forehead. Repeatedly.

Re: We Haven’t Beat A Stable Established QB
 

We have always had the cap available to keep any player we let go. They were let go solely because they wanted more than the Saints wanted to pay. Big difference.