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Who's on the bubble?

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by Boston Saint Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat ...

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Old 08-28-2023, 03:39 PM   #1
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Originally Posted by Boston Saint View Post
Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat is going to be on the team for another 10 years is futile.
Everyone said Peat, Thomas, and Winston were gone this offseason. We kept all 3 because there was a way to restructure and save off this years cap even if it cost us in future years and we needed to get under the 2023 cap. Expecting something different in 2024 in the definition of insanity. We are over the cap again for 2024 and Loomis has been publicly criticized about dead cap and will seek to minimize it on paper with more aggressive restructuring. I hope we get rid of one but the most likely outcome is that all 3 remain Saints in 2024 even if none are healthy and productive. They will agree to take modest pay cuts knowing no other team would offer a cent and that will allow us to pay them in a signing bonus prorated over 5 void years and prevent their dead cap prorated to future years from hitting now. Anyway maybe we will move on from one of these players or maybe we wont but you cant blame me for being skeptical when i wouldnt be any more wrong than the people who said they would already be gone. Every year you can structure a 1 year extension with 5 void years so only 1/3 of the cost hits in year 1 and 2/3 is prorated to void years 2-6. If you do this, it is always cheaper to do it again the next year than to take the cap hit now, on a 1 year basis, in perpetuity. Until I am proven wrong, Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley are the innovators who have brought the concept of a lifetime annuity to NFL roster management.
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Old 08-28-2023, 04:15 PM   #2
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
Everyone said Peat, Thomas, and Winston were gone this offseason. We kept all 3 because there was a way to restructure and save off this years cap even if it cost us in future years and we needed to get under the 2023 cap. Expecting something different in 2024 in the definition of insanity. We are over the cap again for 2024 and Loomis has been publicly criticized about dead cap and will seek to minimize it on paper with more aggressive restructuring. I hope we get rid of one but the most likely outcome is that all 3 remain Saints in 2024 even if none are healthy and productive. They will agree to take modest pay cuts knowing no other team would offer a cent and that will allow us to pay them in a signing bonus prorated over 5 void years and prevent their dead cap prorated to future years from hitting now. Anyway maybe we will move on from one of these players or maybe we wont but you cant blame me for being skeptical when i wouldnt be any more wrong than the people who said they would already be gone. Every year you can structure a 1 year extension with 5 void years so only 1/3 of the cost hits in year 1 and 2/3 is prorated to void years 2-6. If you do this, it is always cheaper to do it again the next year than to take the cap hit now, on a 1 year basis, in perpetuity. Until I am proven wrong, Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley are the innovators who have brought the concept of a lifetime annuity to NFL roster management.
You’ve not been proven right either. You speak extremes and talk about how Graham had a concussion and how Peat will be on the roster 10 years from now and complain that they drafted Oline picks in first and second rounds rather than 3rd and 4th rounds and go back 2 drafts 15 years ago as if it proves your point.
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Old 08-28-2023, 04:37 PM   #3
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Loomis has been criticized by some over dead cap that do not have a clue how salary caps work in the first place.

There are two different types of dead money that can occur within an NFL cap. Realized and unrealized. Or you can call them earned and unearned. Unrealized or unearned dead money occurs when a player is traded or released prior to the end of their effective contract. It is in the form of future guarantees that were never offset by time served by the player for the team or payment for services never rendered. The second type of dead money is realized or earned, or in other words, accounting of payment for services fully rendered in the past within later periods, commonly in the form of voidable years. This second type is what the Saints have most commonly leveraged.

Think of the first as bad cholesterol and the second as good cholesterol.
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“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill
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Old 08-28-2023, 05:38 PM   #4
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Loomis has been criticized by some over dead cap that do not have a clue how salary caps work in the first place.

There are two different types of dead money that can occur within an NFL cap. Realized and unrealized. Or you can call them earned and unearned. Unrealized or unearned dead money occurs when a player is traded or released prior to the end of their effective contract. It is in the form of future guarantees that were never offset by time served by the player for the team or payment for services never rendered. The second type of dead money is realized or earned, or in other words, accounting of payment for services fully rendered in the past within later periods, commonly in the form of voidable years. This second type is what the Saints have most commonly leveraged.

Think of the first as bad cholesterol and the second as good cholesterol.
Your logic is flawed because it implies that keeping a Carson Wentz, Brock Osweiler, David Johnson, Trey Lance, Jared Goff, or Todd Gurley for the length of their bad contract is good because it makes the dead cap hit into the actually good realized earned kind. The truth is that when you have a bad contract the best thing you can do is bail asap so that even if you take a big unrealized cap hit at least you dont let more money get paid or guaranteed and throw good money after bad. Its best to just take your medicine and move on. In reality unrealized dead cap is usually better than realized dead dead cap because it means you moved on quickly from bad contracts instead of using accounting tricks to delay the cost while increasing it in the long run.
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Old 08-30-2023, 02:06 AM   #5
 
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
There is no limit to the number of draft picks a team can spend on offensive line or the number of times they can trade back to acquire additional picks. Draft picks used on losers like book, trout man, grayson, etc could have been spent on oline. You can get running backs, safeties, tight ends, and backup qbs in free agency. Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Zach Strief, Erik McCoy, Terron Armstead, and Jermon Bushrod were all day 2-3 picks. Offensive line depth is a choice. We chose what having Kendre Miller run into a brick wall and Haener get clobbered in preseason was more important to us than having more oline depth and youth. Out system is to draft a 1st rounder on oline every other year and pay and play them for 10 years whether they are good or garbage and back them up with undrafted players and journeyman who we can blame all our losing seasons on having to play after injuries.

Its not that this isnt the year to move on from Peat. It’s that never is the year to move on. It will always be cheaper to restructure his contract than to take the dead cap hit. If you think he is bad in his 30’s just wait for his 40’s and 50’s.

We extended Andrus Peat in 2020. In the 2020 draft 3rd round the pick after Zach Baun was Jonah Jackson, now a pro bowl Guard.
Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Loomis has been criticized by some over dead cap that do not have a clue how salary caps work in the first place.

There are two different types of dead money that can occur within an NFL cap. Realized and unrealized. Or you can call them earned and unearned. Unrealized or unearned dead money occurs when a player is traded or released prior to the end of their effective contract. It is in the form of future guarantees that were never offset by time served by the player for the team or payment for services never rendered. The second type of dead money is realized or earned, or in other words, accounting of payment for services fully rendered in the past within later periods, commonly in the form of voidable years. This second type is what the Saints have most commonly leveraged.

Think of the first as bad cholesterol and the second as good cholesterol.
Only caveat is the skill players you want, the great/good ones, aren't typically available in FA. It's an amalgamation of different position groups in the draft. They key is hitting on the talent as the Saints may have appeared to do this year's draft.
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Old 08-30-2023, 09:57 AM   #6
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Originally Posted by SmashMouth View Post
Only caveat is the skill players you want, the great/good ones, aren't typically available in FA. It's an amalgamation of different position groups in the draft. They key is hitting on the talent as the Saints may have appeared to do this year's draft.
Yes but you need balance too. You can't trade away too many picks or you won't hit on enough talent no matter who you pick. Also certain positions are much easier to fill from free agency or udfa than others. Its not so uncommon that an udfa turns into a star RB but its very uncommon at QB. You can get a running back in free agency also who can be quite good and at a discount. Backup QBs in free agency are a dime a dozen so drafting a QB who doesn't have an elite starter ceiling is kind of pointless. You can even find edge rushers cheap in free agency when they have proven they have some inconsistency, like Clowney, much better than you tend to be able to find on oline. It seems really hard to find useful affordable oline in free agency or from UDFA so I think its a key position to invest a combination or 1st and middle round picks to have youth and depth. Most of the best tight ends of all time are middle round picks so ever spending a 1st rounder there is stupid, its only really worked about once a decade across the entire NFL, if that. In general I think the 1st round you go QB, OT, CB, WR, LB, DL because those are high value positions you can sometimes predict. Mid rounds you can continue to add any position but focus on a lot of oline where its hard to get depth, and only draft QBs you feel could start one day. Don't waste mid round picks on kickers, punters, or short backup QBs to sit behind your starter who you financially can't move on from for 5 years. If your team has weaknesses at OG, S, TE, or RB those are prime positions to draft in the mid rounds, so trade back and acquire extra mid round picks.
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Old 08-30-2023, 07:43 PM   #7
 
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
Yes but you need balance too. You can't trade away too many picks or you won't hit on enough talent no matter who you pick. Also certain positions are much easier to fill from free agency or udfa than others. Its not so uncommon that an udfa turns into a star RB but its very uncommon at QB. You can get a running back in free agency also who can be quite good and at a discount. Backup QBs in free agency are a dime a dozen so drafting a QB who doesn't have an elite starter ceiling is kind of pointless. You can even find edge rushers cheap in free agency when they have proven they have some inconsistency, like Clowney, much better than you tend to be able to find on oline. It seems really hard to find useful affordable oline in free agency or from UDFA so I think its a key position to invest a combination or 1st and middle round picks to have youth and depth. Most of the best tight ends of all time are middle round picks so ever spending a 1st rounder there is stupid, its only really worked about once a decade across the entire NFL, if that. In general I think the 1st round you go QB, OT, CB, WR, LB, DL because those are high value positions you can sometimes predict. Mid rounds you can continue to add any position but focus on a lot of oline where its hard to get depth, and only draft QBs you feel could start one day. Don't waste mid round picks on kickers, punters, or short backup QBs to sit behind your starter who you financially can't move on from for 5 years. If your team has weaknesses at OG, S, TE, or RB those are prime positions to draft in the mid rounds, so trade back and acquire extra mid round picks.
We may be through with the era of throwing many picks away for a mere couple of spots move up... at least I hope so. I hope Loomis has learned his lesson and that Jeff Ireland keeps him grounded.
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Old 08-31-2023, 06:56 AM   #8
 
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
Yes but you need balance too. You can't trade away too many picks or you won't hit on enough talent no matter who you pick. Also certain positions are much easier to fill from free agency or udfa than others. Its not so uncommon that an udfa turns into a star RB but its very uncommon at QB. You can get a running back in free agency also who can be quite good and at a discount. Backup QBs in free agency are a dime a dozen so drafting a QB who doesn't have an elite starter ceiling is kind of pointless. You can even find edge rushers cheap in free agency when they have proven they have some inconsistency, like Clowney, much better than you tend to be able to find on oline. It seems really hard to find useful affordable oline in free agency or from UDFA so I think its a key position to invest a combination or 1st and middle round picks to have youth and depth. Most of the best tight ends of all time are middle round picks so ever spending a 1st rounder there is stupid, its only really worked about once a decade across the entire NFL, if that. In general I think the 1st round you go QB, OT, CB, WR, LB, DL because those are high value positions you can sometimes predict. Mid rounds you can continue to add any position but focus on a lot of oline where its hard to get depth, and only draft QBs you feel could start one day. Don't waste mid round picks on kickers, punters, or short backup QBs to sit behind your starter who you financially can't move on from for 5 years. If your team has weaknesses at OG, S, TE, or RB those are prime positions to draft in the mid rounds, so trade back and acquire extra mid round picks.
Does Coby Fleener , aka "Fleecer" blow a little opining in your argument?
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Old 08-31-2023, 10:05 AM   #9
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Re: Who's on the bubble?

Originally Posted by SmashMouth View Post
Does Coby Fleener , aka "Fleecer" blow a little opining in your argument?
How would Fleener blow a hole in my argument? Would Crystal Pepsi blow a hole in your argument? Nobody said bad TE's don't exist so naming one has nothing to do with my argument in any way. Every team in the NFL has had a bad TE at one time or another. He was a bad TE. The Colts wasted the 34th overall pick on him, which although technically not a 1st rounder, is higher than I believe a TE should typically be drafted. We took a shot on him in free agency and missed, which every team in NFL history has done on a TE. But it would not have been better if we drafted Kellen Winslow Jr in the early 1st round and it could have been better if we took a TE with a later pick such as Gronk or Kittle or Kelce or Andrews.
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