Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Do you have any stats backing an offensive penalty being more likely? I feel like in that situation the offense can known what its going to do and prepare while the defense has react. Also not all offensive penalties result in a run off, it would probably have to be a pre-snap penalty.

With Sean Payton's bad luck on last second drives like the Minnesota miracle, I can't blame him for wanting to run all the time off the clock.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

A presnap penalty like a false start = game over. The most common penalty in the NFL is offensive holding. The second most common penalty is a false start. In terms of percentages, they outrank the other penalties by a significant margin. Over 1/3 of the penalties called are those two penalties. The highest defensive penalty called is defensive holding. Defensive pass interference is very close in percentage to defensive holding. No passes are being thrown so those penalties are both unlikely. 12 guys on the field is very uncommon and probably only occurred due to the situation. It's hard to say how likely it is in that situation. I'd bet quite a bit though that a false start and an offensive holding would still be the most common penalties in that situation. An offensive holding wouldn't end the game unless the game clock ran out, but it would make the next FG attempt significantly harder. I deal with math quite a bit, and I'm going to make what I think is a very good guess in that stopping the clock there makes your chances of winning far more likely than running your FG unit onto the field with a running clock ticking down.

People have been saying that Mahomes got KC into FG range with 13 seconds remaining, but people forget that Mahomes had 3 TOs. Any tackle in the field of play would probably end the game once Buffalo got back the ball. What Mahomes did and what Josh Allen would have to do are two completely different levels of difficulty.