Former Saints Players Who Are In the UFL Right Now

AsylumGuido · 02-21-2024, 03:11 PM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

If it's such a crap shoot, we coulda had more talent to evaluate and get a chance to either fail or succeed with those traded away selections.

As I stated before, it's almost like a casino where the house always wins. You might get lucky as many do once in a blue moon. We need a greater level of consistency. Jeff Ireland has helped some of late. Maybe this new coaching blood will help too.

The thing about the draft crap shoot is that it has been proven that the higher the pick the better odds that pick will be "successful". This isn't to say lower picks can't be successful, but statistically fewer are. Numbers may show a 2nd rounder has a 1 in 3 chance at being a success. And the numbers may show a 5th rounder has a 1 in 10 chance of being a success. Statistically speaking, that means that one 2nd rounder (1:3 or 33.3%) has a slightly greater chance of being a success than any of three 5th rounders (3:10 or 30%). In this case trading a 2nd rounder for three 5th rounders would statistically lower your chances of obtaining a successful player.

I've seen varying definitions of "successful", but the principle holds true.

02-21-2024, 03:11 PM	#8
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,849	Re: Former Saints Players Who Are In the UFL Right Now Originally Posted by SmashMouth If it's such a crap shoot, we coulda had more talent to evaluate and get a chance to either fail or succeed with those traded away selections. As I stated before, it's almost like a casino where the house always wins. You might get lucky as many do once in a blue moon. We need a greater level of consistency. Jeff Ireland has helped some of late. Maybe this new coaching blood will help too. The thing about the draft crap shoot is that it has been proven that the higher the pick the better odds that pick will be "successful". This isn't to say lower picks can't be successful, but statistically fewer are. Numbers may show a 2nd rounder has a 1 in 3 chance at being a success. And the numbers may show a 5th rounder has a 1 in 10 chance of being a success. Statistically speaking, that means that one 2nd rounder (1:3 or 33.3%) has a slightly greater chance of being a success than any of three 5th rounders (3:10 or 30%). In this case trading a 2nd rounder for three 5th rounders would statistically lower your chances of obtaining a successful player. I've seen varying definitions of "successful", but the principle holds true.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

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