Saints turning the Page on Winston

AsylumGuido · 03-21-2024, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Please take a look at the 2024 final comp picks on the site below. It breaks down free agents acquired into CFA's lost and gained, and non-CFA's lost and gained. Only CFA's count. CFA's gained and lost cancel out, and no team gets a comp pick unless they lose more CFA's than they gain. Every team that lost more CFA's than they gained got the difference in comp picks, so every CFA counts, unless you gain far more than you lose and then its just sort of gravy as you can't get negative picks.

So if Young counts as a CFA, he will definitely reduce our chances of getting a comp pick if we had any chances of getting a comp pick in the first place. If we would have got 1 or more comp picks without signing Young, and Young is deemed a CFA, we will get that many comp picks minus one due to signing Young, thats just how it works. If you don't believe me, look at every single teams final comp picks results in the link below. Be sure to click to the 2024 tab to see actual results not 2025 projections.

So then the only question is will Young count as a CFA. You say that cannot be determined until we see how many games and snaps he plays and what his final salary is. But here is the thing. Look at 2024 results for every team. Young's base salary is 2.7 million and his signing bonus was 1.86 million. So, even if he plays zero games, I believe he is guaranteed 4.5 million APY. Now refer to the 2024 comp pick results and find the highest paid non-CFA and the lowest paid CFA. You will find the highest paid non-CFA made 2.5m APY and the lowest paid CFA made $2.25m APY. So while snap count and awards can matter at the margin for players with salaries in the mid 2 millions range, and perhaps with the adjusted salary cap we will see CFA's making as low as 2.5m and non-CFA's as much as 2.75m, Young making 4.5m will definitely be a CFA unless he fails a physical and cancels his entire contract, and as a CFA he will definitely reduce the comp picks we would receive, if any, by one pick. How many snaps he plays and what awards he will will just affect what round of comp pick the 49ers get for losing him if he is one of their losses that does not get canceled out, but he will definitely be one of our gains that cancels out one of our losses and reduces by one any comp picks we may have received. Thats ok, we don't need comp picks every year, but it is reality, he will count.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

Who said he wouldn't count? I said we won't know how much he'd count toward the final balance until the season is over. Will it be enough to counteract the end value of total losses? Maybe. Maybe not. Just because a player qualifies as a CFA doesn't mean he'd have enough value to make the 32 pick cut. Right now he's getting full credit for the $13M APY. If he doesn't play out the whole season his value goes way down.

BakoSaint · 03-21-2024, 03:38 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Who said he wouldn't count? I said we won't know how much he'd count toward the final balance until the season is over. Will it be enough to counteract the end value of total losses? Maybe. Maybe not. Just because a player qualifies as a CFA doesn't mean he'd have enough value to make the 32 pick cut. Right now he's getting full credit for the $13M APY. If he doesn't play out the whole season his value goes way down.

If you look at the 2024 chart in my link, it does not include players like Derek Carr who were cut by their previous team and therefore exempt from the formula, they are not on the chart at all, thats not what they mean by non-CFA. The difference between CFA's and non-CFA's it lists is their point value which is primarily dictated by their APY salary with a secondary effect of snaps and awards, a CFA is someone who made it with the 32 pick limit. CFA's 'made the cut' with their point value to be in the equation. When you speak of the top 32 and how we don't know if he will make it, thats the top 32 after all the 100's of moves that cancel each other out, so really its perhaps the top 132 or 232 players who count, many cancelling eachother out, and last season every player over $2.5m made it, so at $4.5 millon Young definitely will even if he never plays a snap.

Essentially I believe they start adding players from the highest value to the lowest until there are 32 picks awarded after all the offsets because many times adding a player will cancel a pick not award one because it offsets previously added player, and then when they have added enough players that there are 32 CFA's who don't offset, thats the point cutoff. Young will definitely be above that cutoff, and will probably cancel out whatever pick we would have gotten for Peat, which would have been something in the range of Round 4-7. Unless Peat only gets like under $2.5m or resigns with us and then we never would have gotten a pick anyway, but Young will count for the 49ers, probably round 4-6 depending on results.

SmashMouth · 03-21-2024, 04:01 PM

Asking for friend... Is turning the page on Winston the same as closing the chapter on Ian Book?

Sinner · 03-21-2024, 04:17 PM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

Asking for friend... Is turning the page on Winston the same as closing the chapter on Ian Book?

Still steppin into an old beat up unreliable Carr…

03-21-2024, 02:58 PM	#1
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,573	Re: Saints turning the Page on Winston Originally Posted by BakoSaint Please take a look at the 2024 final comp picks on the site below. It breaks down free agents acquired into CFA's lost and gained, and non-CFA's lost and gained. Only CFA's count. CFA's gained and lost cancel out, and no team gets a comp pick unless they lose more CFA's than they gain. Every team that lost more CFA's than they gained got the difference in comp picks, so every CFA counts, unless you gain far more than you lose and then its just sort of gravy as you can't get negative picks. So if Young counts as a CFA, he will definitely reduce our chances of getting a comp pick if we had any chances of getting a comp pick in the first place. If we would have got 1 or more comp picks without signing Young, and Young is deemed a CFA, we will get that many comp picks minus one due to signing Young, thats just how it works. If you don't believe me, look at every single teams final comp picks results in the link below. Be sure to click to the 2024 tab to see actual results not 2025 projections. So then the only question is will Young count as a CFA. You say that cannot be determined until we see how many games and snaps he plays and what his final salary is. But here is the thing. Look at 2024 results for every team. Young's base salary is 2.7 million and his signing bonus was 1.86 million. So, even if he plays zero games, I believe he is guaranteed 4.5 million APY. Now refer to the 2024 comp pick results and find the highest paid non-CFA and the lowest paid CFA. You will find the highest paid non-CFA made 2.5m APY and the lowest paid CFA made $2.25m APY. So while snap count and awards can matter at the margin for players with salaries in the mid 2 millions range, and perhaps with the adjusted salary cap we will see CFA's making as low as 2.5m and non-CFA's as much as 2.75m, Young making 4.5m will definitely be a CFA unless he fails a physical and cancels his entire contract, and as a CFA he will definitely reduce the comp picks we would receive, if any, by one pick. How many snaps he plays and what awards he will will just affect what round of comp pick the 49ers get for losing him if he is one of their losses that does not get canceled out, but he will definitely be one of our gains that cancels out one of our losses and reduces by one any comp picks we may have received. Thats ok, we don't need comp picks every year, but it is reality, he will count. https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks Who said he wouldn't count? I said we won't know how much he'd count toward the final balance until the season is over. Will it be enough to counteract the end value of total losses? Maybe. Maybe not. Just because a player qualifies as a CFA doesn't mean he'd have enough value to make the 32 pick cut. Right now he's getting full credit for the $13M APY. If he doesn't play out the whole season his value goes way down.

03-21-2024, 03:38 PM	#2
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,347	Re: Saints turning the Page on Winston Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Who said he wouldn't count? I said we won't know how much he'd count toward the final balance until the season is over. Will it be enough to counteract the end value of total losses? Maybe. Maybe not. Just because a player qualifies as a CFA doesn't mean he'd have enough value to make the 32 pick cut. Right now he's getting full credit for the $13M APY. If he doesn't play out the whole season his value goes way down. If you look at the 2024 chart in my link, it does not include players like Derek Carr who were cut by their previous team and therefore exempt from the formula, they are not on the chart at all, thats not what they mean by non-CFA. The difference between CFA's and non-CFA's it lists is their point value which is primarily dictated by their APY salary with a secondary effect of snaps and awards, a CFA is someone who made it with the 32 pick limit. CFA's 'made the cut' with their point value to be in the equation. When you speak of the top 32 and how we don't know if he will make it, thats the top 32 after all the 100's of moves that cancel each other out, so really its perhaps the top 132 or 232 players who count, many cancelling eachother out, and last season every player over $2.5m made it, so at $4.5 millon Young definitely will even if he never plays a snap. Essentially I believe they start adding players from the highest value to the lowest until there are 32 picks awarded after all the offsets because many times adding a player will cancel a pick not award one because it offsets previously added player, and then when they have added enough players that there are 32 CFA's who don't offset, thats the point cutoff. Young will definitely be above that cutoff, and will probably cancel out whatever pick we would have gotten for Peat, which would have been something in the range of Round 4-7. Unless Peat only gets like under $2.5m or resigns with us and then we never would have gotten a pick anyway, but Young will count for the 49ers, probably round 4-6 depending on results.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,347

03-21-2024, 04:01 PM	#3
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,550 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Saints turning the Page on Winston Asking for friend... Is turning the page on Winston the same as closing the chapter on Ian Book? AsylumGuido likes this.

03-21-2024, 04:17 PM	#4
Sinner 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,065	Re: Saints turning the Page on Winston Originally Posted by SmashMouth Asking for friend... Is turning the page on Winston the same as closing the chapter on Ian Book? Still steppin into an old beat up unreliable Carr…
Sinner 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,065