Guido is right but worded it somewhat awkwardly. He wouldnt count as an end of contract free agent because he wasn’t one. His contract didnt end with its final year. It didn’t automatically void. It may have been planned to end but it was not automatic and the nfl rules dont read tea leaves. His contract had some crazy trigger to pay him $100 million or whatever if we didnt cut him, so we did cut him, and designated him a post june 1 cut. Same deal with Michael Thomas. Cut players dont count toward the comp pick formulas. Their creative contracts were a double edged sword, allowing us to to designate them post june 1 cuts and spread out dead cap but preventing us from gaining comp picks, versus what it would have been if the contracts had been allowed to expire normally or void automatically. While not exact the formulas are very predictable and we will know before the start of the season what comp picks to expect next year with just the slight possibility that one pick could be a little higher or lower. Signing Derek Carr didnt count against us either, we signed the most overpriced free agent and still got comp picks because the Raiders cut him.

No. He doesn't qualify as an end of contract free agent. Same with Thomas if he signs elsewhere. Even if he was he'd only go into the compensatory formula which balances additions against subtractions and factors in the terms of the player's new contracts.

A couple of more notes on compensatory picks. Along with average contract pay per year the percentage of snaps played (playing time I mentioned earlier) factors into the formula. There is also a limit of four per team. But more importantly, only 32 compensatory picks are given (except for very rare circumstances). Post-season awards or honors are also factored into the formula. The total of all eligible picks are finally ranked based upon all factors and ONLY the top 32 are awarded. Therefore, if a team had a qualifying balance which would normally result in picks they would not receive any if ranked 33 or lower. That's why you never know the full extent of compensatory picks until after the season when when all factors are known.

Here is an article from May 2023 anticipating the Saints would receive two 4th round and one 6th round comp pick. We ended up with three 5th round comp picks. So by this May we will have a pretty good idea of our comp picks or lack thereof. 'You never know the full extent' just means you do know 80%.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2024...jr-nfl-rumors/

At this point Chase Young kind of blows our comp pick situation for 2025 because he counts. Carr did not count last year because the Raiders cut him. Roach and Gay cancel out. If Young earns and plays less than expected he will still be the biggest number on our sheet, even if he misses the whole year I think he earns $4.5 million. Losing Winston, Thomas, and Maye won't count because we technically cut them. We don't know how much Yiadom or Baun was paid yet but its not expected to be enough to count. If Peat gets a lot of money elsewhere, it would just offset Chase Young and we still have no net loss of qualifying players. And we still could sign players, whereas I am not sure who other than Peat who we could lose who would be qualifying. Unless Baun or Yiadom becomes some sort of awarded superstar with their new team, it seems like we are not getting comp picks in 2025.

Here is an article from May 2023 anticipating the Saints would receive two 4th round and one 6th round comp pick. We ended up with three 5th round comp picks. So by this May we will have a pretty good idea of our comp picks or lack thereof. 'You never know the full extent' just means you do know 80%.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2024...jr-nfl-rumors/

At this point Chase Young kind of blows our comp pick situation for 2025 because he counts. Carr did not count last year because the Raiders cut him. Roach and Gay cancel out. If Young earns and plays less than expected he will still be the biggest number on our sheet, even if he misses the whole year I think he earns $4.5 million. Losing Winston, Thomas, and Maye won't count because we technically cut them. We don't know how much Yiadom or Baun was paid yet but its not expected to be enough to count. If Peat gets a lot of money elsewhere, it would just offset Chase Young and we still have no net loss of qualifying players. And we still could sign players, whereas I am not sure who other than Peat who we could lose who would be qualifying. Unless Baun or Yiadom becomes some sort of awarded superstar with their new team, it seems like we are not getting comp picks in 2025.