Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5

Rugby Saint II · 04-11-2024, 01:14 PM

Originally Posted by lee909

Unless they pull a rabbit out the hat and sort the offensive line and maybe DT i'd say they would do well exceptional well to get over that.

The division is hard to predict as the games are normally close even when a team isn't good. Outside of that how many of the teams are you making them favourites against Denver,Washington,Giants. So unless they pull out 4 wins in division it'll be tough. Though difficult to say when injuries start piling up for teams

Home games
Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders

Road games

Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Chargers
New York Giants

If we can simply get off to a fast start under Kubiak's offense we could win ten games. If we start off the way we finished down the stretch last year we might surprise some folks. Let's see how we draft this year and then revisit this. Right now I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.

Boston Saint · 05-22-2024, 04:53 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

If we can simply get off to a fast start under Kubiak's offense we could win ten games. If we start off the way we finished down the stretch last year we might surprise some folks. Let's see how we draft this year and then revisit this. Right now I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.

Well, it could be said that, last year, Carr was relatively healthy the first 2 games of the year and for the 7 games after the bye. In those games the team was 6-3 last year. That’s a 11-12 win season with a healthy Carr.

BakoSaint · 05-23-2024, 10:40 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Well, it could be said that, last year, Carr was relatively healthy the first 2 games of the year and for the 7 games after the bye. In those games the team was 6-3 last year. That’s a 11-12 win season with a healthy Carr.

It could be said that Carr is 1 year older and playing behind a much less experienced offensive line and facing a less easy schedule of opponents in 2024 than 2023. Last year many said we would have a great record because Lattimore and Thomas's injuries in 2022 were a fluke, but it turns out that with age and risk factors injuries can be a pattern.

But in the end its ok. If we don't win a lot of games we still have our own 1st round pick so we have insurance. If we win, great, if we don't, we could be in a position to draft a QB of the future and that position will also help attract better coaching candidates than for example Carolina was able to with no 1st round pick and looking for a coach or we would have been this offseason with a later 1st round pick than our own.

SmashMouth · 05-23-2024, 10:43 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Here is a thought. The Saints haven’t been crappy enough to warrant a top 10 pick since 2008 and not crappy enough for a top 5 since 2006. That’s a long time. So, on the unlikely chance the team sucks badly enough for a top 3 pick next year then maybe we get our future QB. Not that I’m predicting anything.

So we got that going for us, which is nice.

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

It could be said that Carr is 1 year older and playing behind a much less experienced offensive line and facing a less easy schedule of opponents in 2024 than 2023. Last year many said we would have a great record because Lattimore and Thomas's injuries in 2022 were a fluke, but it turns out that with age and risk factors injuries can be a pattern.

But in the end its ok. If we don't win a lot of games we still have our own 1st round pick so we have insurance. If we win, great, if we don't, we could be in a position to draft a QB of the future and that position will also help attract better coaching candidates than for example Carolina was able to with no 1st round pick and looking for a coach or we would have been this offseason with a later 1st round pick than our own.

Mebbe ... or mebbe we have our QB of the future already in the QB room.

BakoSaint · 05-23-2024, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

Mebbe ... or mebbe we have our QB of the future already in the QB room.

I kind of wonder what if Rattler turns out to be a Teddy Bridgewater level QB. Like not great, but pretty good. If that happens, which is definitely possible not just either great or worthless, its possible we could take a new QB in the draft at some point and get a good draft pick for Rattler to down the line to help our oline. Or if our defense is great in the future, maybe a good but not great QB will be good enough.

AsylumGuido · 05-23-2024, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

I kind of wonder what if Rattler turns out to be a Teddy Bridgewater level QB. Like not great, but pretty good. If that happens, which is definitely possible not just either great or worthless, its possible we could take a new QB in the draft at some point and get a good draft pick for Rattler to down the line to help our oline. Or if our defense is great in the future, maybe a good but not great QB will be good enough.

At the very worst Derek Carr himself is "good but not great". Why look elsewhere? And that said, you'll never convince me that either Haener or Rattler can give us more than Carr anytime soon, if at all. I can't see either as more than a serviceable backup.

Oh, and as far as we know we already have all the help we need for our o-line in the house right now. Of course, seeing the possibility takes an open mind and some optimism.

BakoSaint · 05-23-2024, 12:25 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

At the very worst Derek Carr himself is "good but not great". Why look elsewhere? And that said, you'll never convince me that either Haener or Rattler can give us more than Carr anytime soon, if at all. I can't see either as more than a serviceable backup.

Oh, and as far as we know we already have all the help we need for our o-line in the house right now. Of course, seeing the possibility takes an open mind and some optimism.

Sometimes good but not great QBs become not even good around Carr's age. While some generational QBs have played at a high level into their 40's like Brady, Brees, Favre, and Manning, sometime the next tier down hits a brick wall a bit earlier. Carr is 33. Jim Everett was 31 when he joined the Saints. Drew Bledsoe was 30 when he joined the Bills and 33 when he joined the Cowboys. Donovan McNabb was 33 when he joined the Redskins. Carson Palmer was 31 when he joined the Raiders and 33 when he joined the Cardinals. Andy Dalton was 32 when he lost his starting gig with the Bengals and became a backup for the Cowboys. Joe Flacco was 33 when he was replaced by Lamar Jackson after injury and was never counted on as a season long starter again. Jimmy Garappalo turned 32 last season with the Raiders.

While I agree that Carr is a lot better than any of our other QBs now, and any mid-round QB like Haener and Rattler is more of a lottery ticket than a sure thing to ever produce, I do think its very realistic that we may need to scratch off those lottery tickets and see what we have soon because it would not be surprising for Carr to decline at this stage in his career to the point that we do start trying other options. It takes a lot more insane committment to keep up the physical and mental work to remain elite in the mid and late 30's for a QB. Sometimes, great success may facilitate extra motivation to do that, so thats why we may see the greats often able to play until 40. But the next tier down may not have the motivation to work harder than ever before and become smarter on the field than ever before to make up for their bodies starting to slow down, and instead as their bodies slow down they may throw in the towel.

mapcow · 05-23-2024, 01:36 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

At the very worst Derek Carr himself is "good but not great". Why look elsewhere? And that said, you'll never convince me that either Haener or Rattler can give us more than Carr anytime soon, if at all. I can't see either as more than a serviceable backup.

Oh, and as far as we know we already have all the help we need for our o-line in the house right now. Of course, seeing the possibility takes an open mind and some optimism.

Good but not Great..... like the saints of today. mediocre.

Boston Saint · 05-23-2024, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

It could be said that Carr is 1 year older and playing behind a much less experienced offensive line and facing a less easy schedule of opponents in 2024 than 2023. Last year many said we would have a great record because Lattimore and Thomas's injuries in 2022 were a fluke, but it turns out that with age and risk factors injuries can be a pattern.

But in the end its ok. If we don't win a lot of games we still have our own 1st round pick so we have insurance. If we win, great, if we don't, we could be in a position to draft a QB of the future and that position will also help attract better coaching candidates than for example Carolina was able to with no 1st round pick and looking for a coach or we would have been this offseason with a later 1st round pick than our own.

As far as the Oline goes there are obviously going to be a lot of new parts. I don’t know if lack of experience is a bad thing. That means getting younger. Especially when we’re switching to a new blocking scheme this off-season anyway. Penning will be more experienced and hopefully healthier. They brought in guys from other teams with experience but past health issues. I’m sure they could have signed Peat had they wanted to. They feel good about moving on. The key is always is going to be health. Can Ram play at all? I heard some of the guys we brought in as free agents had promising starts to their career, but were sidelined by health issues. Can they stay on the field?

04-11-2024, 01:14 PM	#1
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,179	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by lee909 Unless they pull a rabbit out the hat and sort the offensive line and maybe DT i'd say they would do well exceptional well to get over that. The division is hard to predict as the games are normally close even when a team isn't good. Outside of that how many of the teams are you making them favourites against Denver,Washington,Giants. So unless they pull out 4 wins in division it'll be tough. Though difficult to say when injuries start piling up for teams Home games Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos Las Vegas Raiders Los Angeles Rams Philadelphia Eagles Washington Commanders Road games Dallas Cowboys Green Bay Packers Kansas City Chiefs Los Angeles Chargers New York Giants If we can simply get off to a fast start under Kubiak's offense we could win ten games. If we start off the way we finished down the stretch last year we might surprise some folks. Let's see how we draft this year and then revisit this. Right now I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. AsylumGuido likes this.

05-22-2024, 04:53 PM	#2
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II If we can simply get off to a fast start under Kubiak's offense we could win ten games. If we start off the way we finished down the stretch last year we might surprise some folks. Let's see how we draft this year and then revisit this. Right now I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. Well, it could be said that, last year, Carr was relatively healthy the first 2 games of the year and for the 7 games after the bye. In those games the team was 6-3 last year. That’s a 11-12 win season with a healthy Carr. AsylumGuido likes this.

05-23-2024, 10:40 AM	#3
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,408	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by Boston Saint Well, it could be said that, last year, Carr was relatively healthy the first 2 games of the year and for the 7 games after the bye. In those games the team was 6-3 last year. That’s a 11-12 win season with a healthy Carr. It could be said that Carr is 1 year older and playing behind a much less experienced offensive line and facing a less easy schedule of opponents in 2024 than 2023. Last year many said we would have a great record because Lattimore and Thomas's injuries in 2022 were a fluke, but it turns out that with age and risk factors injuries can be a pattern. But in the end its ok. If we don't win a lot of games we still have our own 1st round pick so we have insurance. If we win, great, if we don't, we could be in a position to draft a QB of the future and that position will also help attract better coaching candidates than for example Carolina was able to with no 1st round pick and looking for a coach or we would have been this offseason with a later 1st round pick than our own. Boston Saint likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,408

05-23-2024, 10:43 AM	#4
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,961 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by Boston Saint Here is a thought. The Saints haven’t been crappy enough to warrant a top 10 pick since 2008 and not crappy enough for a top 5 since 2006. That’s a long time. So, on the unlikely chance the team sucks badly enough for a top 3 pick next year then maybe we get our future QB. Not that I’m predicting anything. So we got that going for us, which is nice. Originally Posted by BakoSaint It could be said that Carr is 1 year older and playing behind a much less experienced offensive line and facing a less easy schedule of opponents in 2024 than 2023. Last year many said we would have a great record because Lattimore and Thomas's injuries in 2022 were a fluke, but it turns out that with age and risk factors injuries can be a pattern. But in the end its ok. If we don't win a lot of games we still have our own 1st round pick so we have insurance. If we win, great, if we don't, we could be in a position to draft a QB of the future and that position will also help attract better coaching candidates than for example Carolina was able to with no 1st round pick and looking for a coach or we would have been this offseason with a later 1st round pick than our own. Mebbe ... or mebbe we have our QB of the future already in the QB room.

05-23-2024, 11:28 AM	#5
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,408	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by SmashMouth Mebbe ... or mebbe we have our QB of the future already in the QB room. I kind of wonder what if Rattler turns out to be a Teddy Bridgewater level QB. Like not great, but pretty good. If that happens, which is definitely possible not just either great or worthless, its possible we could take a new QB in the draft at some point and get a good draft pick for Rattler to down the line to help our oline. Or if our defense is great in the future, maybe a good but not great QB will be good enough.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,408

05-23-2024, 11:41 AM	#6
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,701	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by BakoSaint I kind of wonder what if Rattler turns out to be a Teddy Bridgewater level QB. Like not great, but pretty good. If that happens, which is definitely possible not just either great or worthless, its possible we could take a new QB in the draft at some point and get a good draft pick for Rattler to down the line to help our oline. Or if our defense is great in the future, maybe a good but not great QB will be good enough. At the very worst Derek Carr himself is "good but not great". Why look elsewhere? And that said, you'll never convince me that either Haener or Rattler can give us more than Carr anytime soon, if at all. I can't see either as more than a serviceable backup. Oh, and as far as we know we already have all the help we need for our o-line in the house right now. Of course, seeing the possibility takes an open mind and some optimism.

05-23-2024, 12:25 PM	#7
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,408	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by AsylumGuido At the very worst Derek Carr himself is "good but not great". Why look elsewhere? And that said, you'll never convince me that either Haener or Rattler can give us more than Carr anytime soon, if at all. I can't see either as more than a serviceable backup. Oh, and as far as we know we already have all the help we need for our o-line in the house right now. Of course, seeing the possibility takes an open mind and some optimism. Sometimes good but not great QBs become not even good around Carr's age. While some generational QBs have played at a high level into their 40's like Brady, Brees, Favre, and Manning, sometime the next tier down hits a brick wall a bit earlier. Carr is 33. Jim Everett was 31 when he joined the Saints. Drew Bledsoe was 30 when he joined the Bills and 33 when he joined the Cowboys. Donovan McNabb was 33 when he joined the Redskins. Carson Palmer was 31 when he joined the Raiders and 33 when he joined the Cardinals. Andy Dalton was 32 when he lost his starting gig with the Bengals and became a backup for the Cowboys. Joe Flacco was 33 when he was replaced by Lamar Jackson after injury and was never counted on as a season long starter again. Jimmy Garappalo turned 32 last season with the Raiders. While I agree that Carr is a lot better than any of our other QBs now, and any mid-round QB like Haener and Rattler is more of a lottery ticket than a sure thing to ever produce, I do think its very realistic that we may need to scratch off those lottery tickets and see what we have soon because it would not be surprising for Carr to decline at this stage in his career to the point that we do start trying other options. It takes a lot more insane committment to keep up the physical and mental work to remain elite in the mid and late 30's for a QB. Sometimes, great success may facilitate extra motivation to do that, so thats why we may see the greats often able to play until 40. But the next tier down may not have the motivation to work harder than ever before and become smarter on the field than ever before to make up for their bodies starting to slow down, and instead as their bodies slow down they may throw in the towel.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,408

05-23-2024, 01:36 PM	#8
mapcow Just a Fan Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,819	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by AsylumGuido At the very worst Derek Carr himself is "good but not great". Why look elsewhere? And that said, you'll never convince me that either Haener or Rattler can give us more than Carr anytime soon, if at all. I can't see either as more than a serviceable backup. Oh, and as far as we know we already have all the help we need for our o-line in the house right now. Of course, seeing the possibility takes an open mind and some optimism. Good but not Great..... like the saints of today. mediocre. Sinner and K Major like this.
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05-23-2024, 11:15 AM	#9
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Saints 2024 Projected Win Total 7.5 Originally Posted by BakoSaint It could be said that Carr is 1 year older and playing behind a much less experienced offensive line and facing a less easy schedule of opponents in 2024 than 2023. Last year many said we would have a great record because Lattimore and Thomas's injuries in 2022 were a fluke, but it turns out that with age and risk factors injuries can be a pattern. But in the end its ok. If we don't win a lot of games we still have our own 1st round pick so we have insurance. If we win, great, if we don't, we could be in a position to draft a QB of the future and that position will also help attract better coaching candidates than for example Carolina was able to with no 1st round pick and looking for a coach or we would have been this offseason with a later 1st round pick than our own. As far as the Oline goes there are obviously going to be a lot of new parts. I don’t know if lack of experience is a bad thing. That means getting younger. Especially when we’re switching to a new blocking scheme this off-season anyway. Penning will be more experienced and hopefully healthier. They brought in guys from other teams with experience but past health issues. I’m sure they could have signed Peat had they wanted to. They feel good about moving on. The key is always is going to be health. Can Ram play at all? I heard some of the guys we brought in as free agents had promising starts to their career, but were sidelined by health issues. Can they stay on the field?
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