Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

I am wondering if anyone can come with a good precedent for what many fans are expecting Klint Kubiak to become. Essentially the rosie fan argument is 'Yes, DA has been a mediocre head coach for 5 years. Derek Carr is under appreciated and will surprise people but doesn't need to be Patrick Mahomes. Because all the Saints were missing is Klint Kubiak, the most brilliant young offensive mind in the NFL, who will revitalize the Saints as offensive coordinator, make us Super Bowl contenders, bring multiple rings, and perhaps take over as head coach, or become the crown of the Dennis Allen coaching tree as they duel in many future bowls if he leaves.'

I honestly think the jury is still out on Klint Kubiak. He could be the next Sean Payton, Kyle Shannahan, or heck maybe Bill Walsh, or he could be the next Nathaniel Hackett or Josh McDaniels, its hard to know. His resume is mixed bag.

But where I have trouble is finding the past precedent, the mold for what Kubiak is supposed to become according to the Rosies. I genuinely want to hear who you think Kubiak will become like, and how that will prove a long term answer for the Saints.

My problem is this: when I look at great NFL offensive coordinators who won championships and become great head coaches, I see no precedent for what Kubiak is supposed to bring. Kyle Shannahan was a good OC and seems to be a good HC but never won a ring either way. Bill Walsh did not have championship level success at the OC level before he became an HC. Neither did Sean Payton, who actually had a lot of ups and downs as an offensive coordinator. Neither did Mike McCarthy who made but a small difference when he was the Saints OC. Joe Gibbs was a highly respected OC, but again could not win until he became a head coach.

So who, in the entire history of the NFL, was the genius offensive coordinator who elevated a seemingly mediocre head coach and good but not great QB to a championship, and with his later work was able to show that he was the difference maker and create a genuine debate that he was as responsible as the head coach for bringing a ring, by winning one of his own later as a head coach.

Has any coach in NFL history won a Super Bowl as both OC and HC? I can actually find two examples, that actually connect together: Mike Shannahan and Gary Kubiak. The problem is that neither won their rings under QBs or head coaches who were considered mediocre before their arrival. Shannahan came to a team that already had a Super Bowl winning head coach in George Seifert, running an offense installed by Bill Walsh with Steve Young and Jerry Rice. Then Shannahan went to Denver as head coach where he eventually won a couple rings with John Elway, while Gary Kubiak was his OC to an offensive coach with fairly minimal credit. Gary Kubiak was mostly then average as a head coach, until he finally won a ring after bringing in Peyton Manning, and won mostly on the strength of defense with Von Miller. Neither won as an offensive coordinator without a great offensive coach above them and a great QB.

I guess my point is that I don't think any coach who has ever coached football in the history of the NFL could come to a team with a .500-ish or worse veteran coach and a .500-ish or worse veteran QB and be enough of a difference maker to turn everything around on the path to a championship. If you cloned the the brain of Bill Walsh 35 years ago, choreographed his life to give him every ideal exposure to modern NFL offenses, and then installed him as the 2024 Saints Offensive Coordinator under Dennis Allen working with Derek Carr, I think the best difference he could make would be about what difference Bill Walsh made with the Bengals with Paul Brown and Ken Anderson, or what a Shanahan or Gary Kubiak accomplished in their other OC gigs without a great head coach or QB. Essentially I think the offensive coordinator miracle amounts to: 'Yours hearts failing - but don't worry we found you a kidney.'

But please, give me an example? When in NFL history has a new OC made the difference to turn around a franchise, and been able to make up for a seemingly mediocre defensive minded head coach and struggling veteran QB who could not even win a playoff games before?

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

A possible comparison might be the Rams with Dick Vermeil and OC Mike Martz implementing the Greatest Show on Turf offense. Problem is, Vermeil may have had more charisma in his pinky than Allen has in his whole body. I don't think the Rams get the Super Bowl without Vermeil's passion to kick start things.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Yeah I think in Vermeil, Martz, and Warner you had 3 guys who before and/or after were ‘close but no cigar’ guys. Dick Vermeil had been to the super bowl in Philly and went 13-3 after in KC. Warner later went to a super bowl in Arizona. Mike Martz went 12-4 with Bulger. Warner and Martz went to the Super Bowl without Vermeil but lost. But all 3 together was enough to win. The problem for Kubiak is even if he is the next Martz, Carr and DA have a combined like 15 years in the NFL with no playoff wins, and Kubiak had the least of the the 3 positions and needs to to elevate them both from not close no cigar kick rocks to a ring.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Funny thing is Vermeil has said his main motivation was his Mother. She told him that he would return to coaching because he wouldn't leave without getting a SB ring. She passed away before seeing him win it, but he thanked his Mom after hoisting the Lombardi!

Great story. :beatnik:

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

I pray that DA just stays out of the Offense and let's Kubiak drive the OC bus without interference. DA has chops when it comes to running a Defense, but hasn't a clue on Offense (based on keeping PC as long as he did).

If he stays in his lane, we just might see something special on Offense this year

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Or....if we're lucky we start slow and the Saints fire DA midseason. KK steps in and becomes the next future HOF coach.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

If we start slow it's because the offense isn't working. No way they'd keep Kubiak if they fired Allen. Not happening.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Why not? Just curious.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Yeah. Why not?

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

I think we all know that Allen knows what he is doing with the defense. I just don't see the scenario where the defense is the cause for any overall failure which would lead to Allen's being fired. If the offense shows any improvement early the team as a whole is going to be better and no way Allen gets fired under that scenario. If the offense comes out as bad or worse than what we've had the past two years then then Allen may not make it, but Kubiak absolutely would be gone as well because he has full say on that side of the ball.

Basically, if Kubiak is successful Allen isn't going anywhere, but Kubiak may get offers to go elsewhere.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

If Allen isn’t going anywhere, we AINT going anywhere. You can put all the lipstick in the world on Kubiak. It won’t matter.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Personally I hope we have Dennis Allen as our head coach for the next decade at least for two major reasons. First, if he's still around it is only because we would have been maintaining a degree of consistent success. Secondly, it would piss off that sinner guy to no ends.

:party:

:roflmao:

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Aside from your famous quote, “Winning championships is not the goal”, you wanting me to be pissed off, more than you wanting us to win championships, speaks volumes to this forum, about you. Thank you for the transparency.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

I can see many paths to such a scenario. They are all a bit unlikely but all probably have precedents.

1. The offense starts off ok and continuously improves, but the bottom falls out from the defense. No way you say? Consider that the best player on our defense, Demario Davis, is a 35yo linebacker. So far he has not aged a bit and is playing at his peak, but father time does not always RSVP. Consider 2014 Peyton Manning vs 2015 Payton Manning, who went from 39 TDs and a 101.1 QB rating to 9 TDs and a 67.9 QB rating and on and off benching in a year, the same year his team flipped and offense became its weakness and defense its strength. If Davis suddenly declines to complete ineffectiveness or gets injured for the season, it could be a big blow to the defense. Mathieu could certainly decline or be injured too. Jordan and Lattimore have already declined, but could decline even further. Adebo and Taylor are young and have shown great potential but both have been very uneven from year to year, if they both have great seasons we could be strong at corner, but if they both have off years it could become a weakness with Lattimore's rust and Kool Aid's inexperience. Also it is very very very hard to say that our defense faced a challenging schedule last year. We had one of the weakest schedules in the millennium and its greatest weakness was the offenses and QBs we faced. It could be that our defense was not so great last year and just fed off easier competition. So, I think its possible the defense could struggle and get DA fired. Then Kubiak could be named interim coach, and end up with the job if he fluorishes.

2. For the second scenario you only need to look one play back, the last play of the 2023 season, when the entire Saints offense defied DA and ran for a TD in victory formation. The Saints played this down and let bygones be bygones, but I have opined that they may never have really buried the hatchet, and instead they had no choice but to play it down, because 11 starters on the field and many other players off the field were ok with defying DA, and the Saints could not financially afford to threated to cut or trade all those players because they did not have enough room under the cap to absorb the dead cap hits, and in fact they needed to instead restructure many of the players to stay under the cap. Sure, they let a few walk like Winston and Peat, but they could not financially afford to call out Ruiz, McCoy, Olave, Kamara, etc. I can't remember exactly which players were on the field or sided with Winston on social media, but many more may have sided with him behind closed doors. So, the last play of the season was mutiny on the bounty, and there were no consequences for most. So in scenario 2, the team openly defies DA again multiple times early in the season, the Saints don't have the cap room to make cuts or trades, and either DA is widely perceived to have lost the team, goes on the hot seat in the national media, and is fired for losses and lack of confidence, or DA tries to flush out defiance with depth chart changes instead of cuts, and has to give more snaps to worse players to reward loyalty and that results in losses, kind of the Malcolm Butler effect. If DA is fire for 'losing the team' that was otherwise perceived to have strong potential, and Kubiak takes over and produces a winning record, Kubiak could keep the job.

3. Derek Carr struggles or is injured early, the team gets off to a very bad start, Kubiak turns Haener or Rattler into a somewhat a promising star (not great yet but clearly enough potential to start in 2025), but its too late to save the season. In this case, the Carr contract going bad and another rough season could cost DA his job or even lead Loomis to step back and bring in a new GM. The massive cap hit of Carr's contract could scare away other coaching candidates, and good chemistry with Haener or Rattler could make Kubiak the choice as head coach. Remember when the Browns hired a minimally qualified recent interim coach for the permanent job based on chemistry with Mayfield?

4. Dennis Allen could quit. This does happen. Health scares and disappointments have driven many coaches out of the game before. DA seems healthy enough but maybe 6 years of losing would be stressful. Maybe the team will miss the playoffs but show progress on offense, then DA will have some family tragedy and decide to step away, and then Loomis will view Kubiak as a great continuity hire.

5. Dennis Allen and Klint Kubiak could reach a philosophical impasse. There could be a key season defining decision when DA and Kubiak disagree on the QB or another major decision and are clearly feuding. This has happened between coaches before. Imagine that Carr goes down to injury, Rattler takes over and plays better, Carr recovers and wants to come back, Kubiak wants to stick with Rattler and DA is loyal to Carr, DA orders that Carr be given back the job, Carr struggles on his return but the Saints sneak into the wildcard on incredible luck with Carr limping through games. Allen and Kubiak are seen screaming at each other on the sidelines, DA orders Carr to start in the playoffs and Carr throws multiple interceptions, then Rattler comes in late and almost leads a comeback but the deficit is just too much, Rattler is clearly the future and Carr is the past, and at the end of the season Kubiak makes it clear that he is leaving if DA remains the coach and Rattler asks to be traded if DA is retained.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Looks legit. ^^^

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

All very unlikely. Allen's retiring at some point in the future is the best probability with someone within the staff taking over ... after the Rooney Rule requirements are met, of course.

Barring some tragedy befalling Dennis Allen, I don't see any scenario where Kubiak replaces Allen during the season as was suggested earlier. That is what I was addressing. I doubt any of us would want anything bad to happen to DA or someone close to him. Er, maybe that sinner guy. haters gonna hate. ;)

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Speaking of Klint Kubiak, his scheme is going to use both Kendre Miller and Kamara more extensively, especially in the passing game.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

^^^ I finna leave that troll chow right there for you to mop up after you finish your fruit loops and turn off Nickelodeon. Try to get it cleaned up before the Saints leave New Orleans. Please.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Without really checking, Klint's previous stop in Santa Clara? He wasn't OC there, of course. And why he was considered and hired here. We'll see how things go in the beginning.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

He was OC with the Vikings in 2021, however.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Both Mike Ditka and Jim Haslett were let go after 3-13 seasons. Loomis was around for both of these I believe. Why would you think that all of a sudden that the brass would fire Allen mid-season?

I really wonder exactly what Allen has done to hurt so many people and garner this level of hate when the absolute worst that can be said about his tenure at 17-17 with the Saints is that he's mediocre at worst?

SFIAH

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

He’s weak. He’s not a leader. He’s got less charisma than Ditka had in his winky.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

As a noted philosopher once expounded, "Haters gonna hate."

;)

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Losers gonna lose. Some of us hate losing.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

So are you saying that Kubiak's 1 year tenure with the 49ers as an offensive assistant where they had a very similar overall season the season before he joined is a precedent for an offensive coordinator turning around an entire team previously believed to have a mediocre head coach, qb, and record and proving that a good offensive coordinator alone can be the difference between mediocrity and a championship?

In 2021 Kubiak was OC of the Vikings and they went from 7-9 with 430 points in 2020 to 8-9 with 425 points in 2021.

In 2022 Kubiak was an offensive assistant and sometimes play caller for the Broncos. The Broncos were 3-6 when Kubiak was handed play calling duties. They finished 5-12 compared to 7-10 the prior year.

In 2023 in San Francisco Kubiak was an offensive assistant. The 49ers went from 13-4 NFC Championship Runners Up in 2022 when their QB was hurt in the NFC Championship Game to 12-5 NFC Champions in 2023 when their QB wasn't hurt in the NFC Championship game, so not a dramatic improvement.

So, although Kubiak is supposed to be a miracle worker who will add many wins for us, in his last three stops he has added 1, -2, and -1 regular season wins.

I am not saying Kubiak can't be good. I am saying the jury is still out and even if he is a great OC, a great OC has never been able to do it alone.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Dennis Allen's defenses with the Raiders ranked 28, 29, and 32 in the league. I don't see it as very unlikely that Dennis Allen could post a bad defense if things go wrong, he has done so the majority of his seasons as a head coach. With the Saints, he benefitted from a culture led by Sean Payton and managed to assemble a strong veteran defensive core. As that core ages out and the culture of Sean Payton fades, nobody knows if the Saints defense will remain strong or not. Certainly throughout the league there is a long history of many respected defensive coordinators and defensive minded head coaches whose defenses have been very strong some years but also have had off years as well.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

I guess I am thinking people change when 20-30 years pass or they are different people altogether. With Ditka, decisions would have been made by Tom Benson who is dead now and others who are gone now. It was complicated by Ditka being a hall of fame legend coach and player with a previous super bowl win, whose firing in season might have been seen across the league as highly disrespectful and prevented the Saints from hiring other top candidates.

With Haslett it would have been Tom Benson and Mickey Loomis deciding, not sure what Lauscha's role was in 2005-2006 so maybe him also, and also Katrina was a factor that might have made an in-season firing much different. Firing your coach in season after your team relocated in season to multiple other cities due to an unprecedented natural disaster could have been seen as cruel.

Now the decisions would be made by Gayle, a 20 years older Loomis, and Lauscha, without the complication of a hurricane relocated season or a hall of fame coach. It would be firing a perceived mediocre to poor head coach during his third season with the team who had never been to the playoffs and was also fired during his 3rd season with his previous team. I don't see why the Saints would be way less likely to make a change in season than the average NFL team, given that the previous precedents are so far in the past with such different circumstances. DA ain't a legend like Ditka, and he can't blame a storm like Katrina, he is just a random ok DC who was lucky to get a 2nd chance as head coach and has done nothing great so far.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Salient Points ^^^

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Allen had bad defenses with the Raiders because his talent pool sucked. He had no say on the roster with Al Davis having just died the previous season and Mark Davis making all the calls.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

So, if Davis, Jordan, Mathieu, and Lattimore all decline due to aging, the defensive talent pool here could take a nose dive if younger players don't develop to replace them.

Do you have any documentation that Allen had 'no say' on the Raiders roster rather than the typical amount of input most non-GM head coaches have? Al Davis was clearly a strong headed GM but I don't know that his son was known as such. Reggie McKenzie was the GM and picked DA to work together.

Also, did DA really control the roster that made the Saints defense good recently? It seems like our core was acquired under Payton and Loomis. It seems like DA probably had more control of the 2012-2014 Raiders rosters than he had of the Saints defensive core that was built from 2017-2021 before he took over, and its unclear long term if his influence will build a winner or not. Recent defensive draft picks and free agents have been a mixed bag, the core predating DA's head coaching tenure has been the strength. If we keep drafting players like Turner and Foskey, we might be wanting to phone Mark Davis for better advice.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

I never said that Allen had anything to do with acquiring the Saints defensive talent.

As for Demario and Mathieu, both are coming off banner years and I see no reason why they suddenly hit some imagined wall that you seem to wish exists to tarnish anything that has to do with your hated Loomis. Hopefully both Jordan and Lattimore rebound from injuries.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

On the subject of Carr ...
Matt's latest take :crazy:

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

What is imagined is your world view where I am the only one sports fan in the world who thinks aging into the mid 30's and 40's is a risk of declined athletic performance. In the real world we actually live in the vast majority of sports fans agree that decline with aging becomes an increasing risk for athletes from age 30 to 40+. Some sports fans always feel their favorite players on their team still have a couple years in the tank before the decline hits, but we all know its coming. And in reality, we all know that aging can hit suddenly too. Mike Tyson was the invincible until he couldn't beat Buster Douglas. Peyton Manning was the biggest name in the NFL until Brock Osweiler took his job. Cameron Jordan went from averaging about 10 sacks a year against the like of Tom Brady and Matt Ryan to managing only 2 sacks against perhaps the weakest slate of offensive matchups ever faced by a defense. But oh thats right, in hindsight the Saints later revealed Jordan had a twisted ankle and will be 100% again next year. The thing is, Mike Tyson never recovered from his twisted ankle. Peyton Manning never recovered from his twisted ankle. Because sometimes when you are older, that twisted ankle is actually father time, and when it heals, father time takes the form of a worse injury or a lost step too many. Thats just reality. Age is no friend of athletic performance.

If you look at the stats below, Davis is the oldest active linebacker in the NFL. Why might I expect that he COULD decline or soon retire. Because every single other linebacker in the entire NFL even a day older than him already has. But I guess I am 'imagining' the site pro football reference.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...ay=1&year=1990

I believe even Loomis has joked in interviews that Davis doesn't think he is getting older but he is and the team realized that. We can all hope Davis has another great year but I think realistically every sober minded person realizes he could easily decline this year, and the Saints are paying about half price for his skills knowing its basically a coin flip. Demario Davis has played at a similar level to Fred Warner and Roquan Smith, yet they make $18-20 million a year and Davis just signed for $17 million for two years. I don't think he or his agent are in the charity business, I think everyone understands there is a strong chance that when you pay for 2 years for the price of 1 on a player that age, you are building a significant probability of decline into the contract. One was you look at it is if you get 2 years for the price of one, you could get lucky and the Davis could continue to play at the same level and you double your money, but also there could be a 1/3 chance of extreme decline by 2024 and a 2/3 chance of extreme decline by 2025 so you get 2/3 value in 2024 and 1/3 value in 2025 and thats why you are getting 2 years for the price of 1.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Age clearly affects different people in different ways. Tom Brady had many of his best statistical years and kept winning championships. Demario Davis isn't every other 30 something. He's incredible.

Of course, I didn't read any of that **** when you went into boxing crap. Not sure who would.

:rolleyes:

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Kubiak isn't a 'sure fire' solution to the offense. I like what I've read about him in Saints camp specifically. A fresh approach is necessary and from all accounts the players have welcomed the changes with open arms. That in itself may be enough to get us over .600

Year Position Record Playoff record

2023 San Francisco 49ers Offensive Passing Game Specialist 12-5-0 2-1
2022 Denver Broncos Offensive Pass Game Coordinator / Quarterbacks Coach 5-12-0 0-0
2021 Minnesota Vikings Offensive Coordinator 8-9-0 0-0
2020 Minnesota Vikings Quarterbacks Coach 7-9-0 0-0
2019 Minnesota Vikings Quarterbacks Coach 10-6-0 1-1
2018 Denver Broncos Quarterbacks Coach / Offensive Assistant Coach 6-10-0 0-0
2017 Denver Broncos Quarterbacks Coach / Offensive Assistant Coach 5-11-0 0-0
2016 Denver Broncos Quarterbacks Coach / Offensive Assistant Coach 9-7-0 0-0
2014 Minnesota Vikings Assistant Wide Receivers Coach / Quality Control Coach 7-9-0 0-0
2013 Minnesota Vikings Offensive Quality Control Coach 5-10-1 0-0

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

At this point anything is a step up from Carmichael and crew. Nothing is sure fire, even the doom and gloom preached by Bako and gang. At least this offensive scheme has a solid pedigree of success behind it.

:bng:

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Just wondering how much QB Brock Purdy's contribution was part of that 12-5 record in Santa Clara?

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Sean Payton, a super bowl win, several deep playoff runs, and numerous records would have seemed a MORE solid pedigree for Carmichael. Josh McDaniels had an excellent pedigree. Carmichael had a better pedigree than Carr or DA. But its still possible Carmichael was the biggest big problem and possible as a younger coach Kubiak will bring solutions. But I would say its more likely to have a minimal effect. First problem is Carmichael was probably not the biggest problem. Second problem Kubiak is an unknown commodity with mixed results. Essentially I view it more like when the Falcons switched from Matt Ryan to Mariota / Ridder. No guarantee the replacement would be better, in the end it was a total wash, and it could have been worse, but they were never winning a ring with Matt Ryan anyway so the worst case scenario was a higher draft pick.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

Quido has been quoted as saying, “It’s not about winning championships” So there’s that.

Re: Precedents for the Legend of Klint Kubiak
 

I see you completely missed the point. Read what I posted carefully. The pedigree I was referring to was was not the individual, but to the scheme this individual is bringing to the Saints.

The teams that have run the Shanahan/Kubiak schemes have almost always produced elite offensive numbers. That's what we are talking about here. Make no mistake, we were not running the Carmichael offense when Payton was in New Orleans. Payton ran the offensive side of the ball. It was 100% his scheme. In the brief time since Payton left the offense has quickly gone down the tubes under Carmichael.

The rest of whatever it was that you wrote has no relevance to the scheme that Kubiak brings to our offense.