If it is indeed his last as a Saint it will also be his last in the league. He has repeatedly intimated that he wants to play his entire career with the Saints. And given his agent's whole purpose for making this "statement" is to hurry up and get that extension it doesn't make sense that he'd retire after this season.

As for money over loyalty, I have been hearing that the market for Kamara would be far less than what the Saints are already willing to pay for his extension.

I think you are taking the PR at face value too much. What a player, their agent, or the team says in negotiations may often just be a negotiating tactic. Some players really do want to play their entire career with one franchise, others want to go where they can win, and others want to follow the money. In negotiations where a players demands are not being met, but outside demand is also soft, it can be a good negotiating tactic to emphasize loyalty and legacy with the home team, to try to drum up public support for an extension and convince the team to offer a little more based on fans contagious optimism. Fans often want to see defectors fail and loyal players succeed, so when a player broadcasts their supposed loyalty, fan expectations can rise.

I have no doubt there are legitimately loyal players. And also, there are players who don't like moving and like their home team but are also greedy for contract numbers their performance makes hard to justify.

Last season, Cam Jordan played the same tune about wanting to retire a Saint and how loyal he was, then talked the team into an unnecessary extension with big guarantees just as he was aging into decline, and the Saints ended up in 2024 paying $14 million for a player coming off 2 sacks who will supposedly get healthier as they age and never again twist and ankle wrestling 350lb men. This offseason Jordan restructured, but didn't take any pay cut despite greatly diminished performance, while many teammates did. Jordan may love the Saints, but ultimately he is going to cash out every dollar he can, even as his performance declines, despite the strains that may put the team under. He is loyal to .500. You will never see and apology for letting fans down, only business is business.

In light of this, and rumors the Saints are already offering Kamara above market when players like Davis took below market deals coming off better years, I think the reality is that Kamara is probably all business here and looking to back up the Brinks truck in Metairie. He might prefer to retire a Saint, or he might be just as well to go to the Jets if they write a big check, but right now given that his last 2 years performances are not setting the world on fire, I think the loyalty and legacy card is just a negotiating tactic.

Kamara is under contract. We have a younger backup. No sane 29 year old running back is walking away from almost $12 million. It is virtually impossible that Kamara could put up a performance in 2024 that would lead other teams to bid more than $12 million a year on a 30 year old RB, as McCaffery only had that value to the 49ers for being already proven in their system that was already in Super Bowl contention. Even if Kamara bounces back, he still turns 30, and there are major limits to have far he can bounce back with an oline that, even if improved and serviceable, is very very unlikely to be elite.

Essentially the only way Kamara can outplay his $12 million salary is if he is the best or tied for best RB in the league in 2024. That is very unlikely. If that happens, he is under contract for $25 million in 2025 and the Saints could hold onto him until post-june-1 working on extension.

We lose nothing by taking a wait and see approach to Kamara during 2024. If he was truly loyal he would not mind playing on a year to year basis as a 29yo RB who has seen many of his contemporaries doing the same. If he was truly loyal he would not be demanding a contract that pays more than his recent performance justifies and demanding the team pay for hopes and what ifs. He is a businessman. We need to be businessmen too.

https://twitter.com/TheSaintsWire/st...03607521419421

Interesting article. At this stage in his career, several years older than many of the top players on this list, and not coming off the the top RB type season that McCaffery was, I think at best Kamara's current comps would players 6-10 on this list not players 1-5. It doesn't matter that he was a top 5 RB when he signed his previous deal in 2020, that does not make him top 5 now, and he would be lucky to get top 10 money. What top 5-10 money means is 3-3.5% of the salary cap.

With the salary cap at $255 million that means his new deal at 3-3.5% of the salary cap should average $7.5-$9 million per year. The most recent contract in the middle of this range is Joe Mixon. He got 3yr $25.5m total with $16m guaranteed, an average annual salary of $8.5m/yr. This is approximately Kamara's market value. If anything Mixon is worth more coming off 1034/376 rushing/receiving and entering the 2024 season at 28yo. Kamara is a year older and coming off 694/466 rushing/receiving.

But even a Mixon level contract, that would be a pay cut for Kamara short term, might be generous. Dalvin Cook is essentially the same age as Kamara, became a free agent last year (a year younger than Kamara is now) coming off 1173/295 rushing/receiving with 4.4ypc (10% above Kamara and Mixon) and had to settle for a 1 year $7 million contract.

Fair value for Alvin Kamara would be $7-9 million per year for 1-3 years. Whether he would be worth 1yr $7 million like Cook or 3yr $27 million (basically the same as Mixon) is a matter of opinion. Anything more than this would be shear stupidity and incompetency.

The problem is, Kamara is due to make almost $12 million in 2024 alone, so its Mixon's 3yr contract with $16 million guaranteed may be hard sell. Thats just the reality of a declined player, nobody will want to extend them at their previous salary level. So, its up to him, he has not justified a raise, he has justified a salary reduction. If he wants to keep playing out his existing contract he can take that risk, but the Saints cannot afford to overpay him based on nostalgia.

The Saints will indeed over pay him, but not in the manner you propose. Kamara has built up equity that give him more value than just a player on the field. The vast majority of fans love him.

That said, I simply don't see Kamara as "a declined player" as you label him. I see him as a player that was totally misused under the guidance of Pete Carmichael for the past two seasons. The Shanahan/Kubiak offensive scheme was designed for his type of play. If McCaffrey was running the exact same plays here under Carmichael his production would have been WAY down over the same time span. On the other hand, if Kamara had been running the Niners' Shanahan/Kubiak based scheme these past two seasons his numbers would have been markedly better.

Given all of that, he's still not going to be paid near top dollar and I seriously doubt he's expecting that. I believe he wants an extension first and foremost. That's it.

I understand that your mindset is to always look toward the very worst. For the life of me I cannot understand why anyone could live their life that way.

Pessimist versus optimist.

The Saints will indeed over pay him, but not in the manner you propose. Kamara has built up equity that give him more value than just a player on the field. The vast majority of fans love him.

That said, I simply don't see Kamara as "a declined player" as you label him. I see him as a player that was totally misused under the guidance of Pete Carmichael for the past two seasons. The Shanahan/Kubiak offensive scheme was designed for his type of play. If McCaffrey was running the exact same plays here under Carmichael his production would have been WAY down over the same time span. On the other hand, if Kamara had been running the Niners' Shanahan/Kubiak based scheme these past two seasons his numbers would have been markedly better.

Given all of that, he's still not going to be paid near top dollar and I seriously doubt he's expecting that. I believe he wants an extension first and foremost. That's it.

I understand that your mindset is to always look toward the very worst. For the life of me I cannot understand why anyone could live their life that way.

Pessimist versus optimist.

Whats your number for what you think Kamara is worth and what amount do you think would be too much and against the Saints interests?

I don't like paying for theoretical production. Prior to McCaffery, every SF RB under Shannahan got instantly injured. Kendre Miller looked impressive in his last game even with Carmichael, so maybe Kendre Miller would be even better with Kubiak too.