BakoSaint

Interesting article. At this stage in his career, several years older than many of the top players on this list, and not coming off the the top RB type season that McCaffery was, I think at best Kamara's current comps would players 6-10 on this list not players 1-5. It doesn't matter that he was a top 5 RB when he signed his previous deal in 2020, that does not make him top 5 now, and he would be lucky to get top 10 money. What top 5-10 money means is 3-3.5% of the salary cap.

With the salary cap at $255 million that means his new deal at 3-3.5% of the salary cap should average $7.5-$9 million per year. The most recent contract in the middle of this range is Joe Mixon. He got 3yr $25.5m total with $16m guaranteed, an average annual salary of $8.5m/yr. This is approximately Kamara's market value. If anything Mixon is worth more coming off 1034/376 rushing/receiving and entering the 2024 season at 28yo. Kamara is a year older and coming off 694/466 rushing/receiving.

But even a Mixon level contract, that would be a pay cut for Kamara short term, might be generous. Dalvin Cook is essentially the same age as Kamara, became a free agent last year (a year younger than Kamara is now) coming off 1173/295 rushing/receiving with 4.4ypc (10% above Kamara and Mixon) and had to settle for a 1 year $7 million contract.

Fair value for Alvin Kamara would be $7-9 million per year for 1-3 years. Whether he would be worth 1yr $7 million like Cook or 3yr $27 million (basically the same as Mixon) is a matter of opinion. Anything more than this would be shear stupidity and incompetency.

The problem is, Kamara is due to make almost $12 million in 2024 alone, so its Mixon's 3yr contract with $16 million guaranteed may be hard sell. Thats just the reality of a declined player, nobody will want to extend them at their previous salary level. So, its up to him, he has not justified a raise, he has justified a salary reduction. If he wants to keep playing out his existing contract he can take that risk, but the Saints cannot afford to overpay him based on nostalgia.