AK IS PULLING AN MT, AND THEY WHEELIN JIMMY G IN TO PICK UP WHERE JUWAN DROPPED OFF…

AsylumGuido · 06-24-2024, 05:09 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Interesting article. At this stage in his career, several years older than many of the top players on this list, and not coming off the the top RB type season that McCaffery was, I think at best Kamara's current comps would players 6-10 on this list not players 1-5. It doesn't matter that he was a top 5 RB when he signed his previous deal in 2020, that does not make him top 5 now, and he would be lucky to get top 10 money. What top 5-10 money means is 3-3.5% of the salary cap.

With the salary cap at $255 million that means his new deal at 3-3.5% of the salary cap should average $7.5-$9 million per year. The most recent contract in the middle of this range is Joe Mixon. He got 3yr $25.5m total with $16m guaranteed, an average annual salary of $8.5m/yr. This is approximately Kamara's market value. If anything Mixon is worth more coming off 1034/376 rushing/receiving and entering the 2024 season at 28yo. Kamara is a year older and coming off 694/466 rushing/receiving.

But even a Mixon level contract, that would be a pay cut for Kamara short term, might be generous. Dalvin Cook is essentially the same age as Kamara, became a free agent last year (a year younger than Kamara is now) coming off 1173/295 rushing/receiving with 4.4ypc (10% above Kamara and Mixon) and had to settle for a 1 year $7 million contract.

Fair value for Alvin Kamara would be $7-9 million per year for 1-3 years. Whether he would be worth 1yr $7 million like Cook or 3yr $27 million (basically the same as Mixon) is a matter of opinion. Anything more than this would be shear stupidity and incompetency.

The problem is, Kamara is due to make almost $12 million in 2024 alone, so its Mixon's 3yr contract with $16 million guaranteed may be hard sell. Thats just the reality of a declined player, nobody will want to extend them at their previous salary level. So, its up to him, he has not justified a raise, he has justified a salary reduction. If he wants to keep playing out his existing contract he can take that risk, but the Saints cannot afford to overpay him based on nostalgia.

The Saints will indeed over pay him, but not in the manner you propose. Kamara has built up equity that give him more value than just a player on the field. The vast majority of fans love him.

That said, I simply don't see Kamara as "a declined player" as you label him. I see him as a player that was totally misused under the guidance of Pete Carmichael for the past two seasons. The Shanahan/Kubiak offensive scheme was designed for his type of play. If McCaffrey was running the exact same plays here under Carmichael his production would have been WAY down over the same time span. On the other hand, if Kamara had been running the Niners' Shanahan/Kubiak based scheme these past two seasons his numbers would have been markedly better.

Given all of that, he's still not going to be paid near top dollar and I seriously doubt he's expecting that. I believe he wants an extension first and foremost. That's it.

I understand that your mindset is to always look toward the very worst. For the life of me I cannot understand why anyone could live their life that way.

Pessimist versus optimist.

06-24-2024, 05:09 PM	#30
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: AK IS PULLING AN MT, AND THEY WHEELIN JIMMY G IN TO PICK UP WHERE JUWAN DROPPED OFF… Originally Posted by BakoSaint Interesting article. At this stage in his career, several years older than many of the top players on this list, and not coming off the the top RB type season that McCaffery was, I think at best Kamara's current comps would players 6-10 on this list not players 1-5. It doesn't matter that he was a top 5 RB when he signed his previous deal in 2020, that does not make him top 5 now, and he would be lucky to get top 10 money. What top 5-10 money means is 3-3.5% of the salary cap. With the salary cap at $255 million that means his new deal at 3-3.5% of the salary cap should average $7.5-$9 million per year. The most recent contract in the middle of this range is Joe Mixon. He got 3yr $25.5m total with $16m guaranteed, an average annual salary of $8.5m/yr. This is approximately Kamara's market value. If anything Mixon is worth more coming off 1034/376 rushing/receiving and entering the 2024 season at 28yo. Kamara is a year older and coming off 694/466 rushing/receiving. But even a Mixon level contract, that would be a pay cut for Kamara short term, might be generous. Dalvin Cook is essentially the same age as Kamara, became a free agent last year (a year younger than Kamara is now) coming off 1173/295 rushing/receiving with 4.4ypc (10% above Kamara and Mixon) and had to settle for a 1 year $7 million contract. Fair value for Alvin Kamara would be $7-9 million per year for 1-3 years. Whether he would be worth 1yr $7 million like Cook or 3yr $27 million (basically the same as Mixon) is a matter of opinion. Anything more than this would be shear stupidity and incompetency. The problem is, Kamara is due to make almost $12 million in 2024 alone, so its Mixon's 3yr contract with $16 million guaranteed may be hard sell. Thats just the reality of a declined player, nobody will want to extend them at their previous salary level. So, its up to him, he has not justified a raise, he has justified a salary reduction. If he wants to keep playing out his existing contract he can take that risk, but the Saints cannot afford to overpay him based on nostalgia. The Saints will indeed over pay him, but not in the manner you propose. Kamara has built up equity that give him more value than just a player on the field. The vast majority of fans love him. That said, I simply don't see Kamara as "a declined player" as you label him. I see him as a player that was totally misused under the guidance of Pete Carmichael for the past two seasons. The Shanahan/Kubiak offensive scheme was designed for his type of play. If McCaffrey was running the exact same plays here under Carmichael his production would have been WAY down over the same time span. On the other hand, if Kamara had been running the Niners' Shanahan/Kubiak based scheme these past two seasons his numbers would have been markedly better. Given all of that, he's still not going to be paid near top dollar and I seriously doubt he's expecting that. I believe he wants an extension first and foremost. That's it. I understand that your mindset is to always look toward the very worst. For the life of me I cannot understand why anyone could live their life that way. Pessimist versus optimist.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill