Too much gambling can also put you in a bad spot for years to come.

For over 40 years I kept saying that I wanted the Saints to win it all one time before I died. They finally did in 2010. And a few years later our name finally came up for season tickets after a 15 year wait. At this point in my life I just want to be able to go to games in the Dome and feel like we have a good chance of walking away with a win. Another championship would be great, but to me it isn't as important as being able to be competitive week in and week out. The fun of being a loyal fan is more important than winning it all. Going through dismal seasons again with the feint hope of someday becoming dominant would be at the very least a huge letdown.

The simple fact is that you nor any of your flunkies can have any impact on this season whatsoever. The perpetual complaining has ruined the site. Any time anyone tries to simply talk about the team either you or one of the flunkies have to hijack the thread to start up yet another ***** session. I agree with the others that this has gotten beyond tolerable. Why don't y'all go find somewhere else, anywhere else, to gripe non-stop?

Realistically I think 9-8 with a historically easily schedule is equivalent to 7-10 with a normal schedule. But the Saints have a notably, but not historically, easy schedule next year, so if they fielded the same team, 8-9 would be a reasonable expectation. But also, this does not account for the Falcons adding Cousins who is a clear major upgrade, so 7-10 is also realistic if Cousins is healthy.

Carmichael being the weakest link is a case of hindsight being 20/20. As you point out, the Saints did not have the weakest offense ever and were not 3-13. Carr has never won a playoff game, despite 10 or so previous years with other OCs. Dennis Allen's best two seasons as a head coach both came with inherited Carmichael as his OC not his hand picked OC's with the Raiders. Allen and Carr were steadfastly loyal to Carmichael during the season and only change their tune when it was his ass or theirs that had to go. We don't know how much Allen, Loomis, or Carr may have interfered with the offense. It is also possible that management forced Carmichael to start Penning at LT, and then to change the entire offense to make covering for Penning a priority over getting open. It's possible Carmichael started mailing it in because he wanted out because impossible things were being asked of him, like covering for the front office drafting some juco sclub with zero talent by making him look like a starting LT for a pass first QB when Penning may not belong in the NFL.

Likewise, it is not proven that Kubiak is any savior. SF was similar before and after his 1 year stint as an assistant. Kubiak could not save Nathaniel Hackett in Denver, nor get Cousins a ring in Minnesota.

Overall, I view replacing Carmichael with Kubiak as 'if we can't make the big change that we probably need, we might as well try the smaller change that might help' but I view it as very possible that Kubiak will be the same or worse because its very possible Carmichael was not the problem and actually has a more successful track record than Carr or Allen in the past.

As to your other points:

1. I agree a win here would be nice. Given Allen's track record, there is not really a precedent for it though, unless one of them is starting a backup QB. Most likely we lose all 3 games.

2. Most likely outcome is 1-2 but 2-1 is possible. You have to account for the Falcons adding Cousins. Cousins is generally a little better than Carr and the Falcons have a much better oline than the Saints even if they are also in a sorry state with a lousy coach and dumb GM. They paid millions to beat the Saints and may achieve that.

3. Both these teams beat the Saints last year. The Saints were the oldest team, had many vets get older, and replaced 3 starting oline with one rookie changing positions. So realistically, more likely we lose these games.

4. Again, we lost to this type of opponent last year, and generally seem to have a weaker roster except for theoretical hope in an offensive coordinator change from a largely unproven/inconsistent young coordinator who we can hope will be good.

None of this means I am not optimistic. I am just optimistic that we can rebuild if we remain fiscally responsible, we can attract a better head coach if we are not ridiculously over the cap, and we can draft a talented young QB if we don't give away all our future draft picks to Howie Roseman. I am optimistic for the scenario I can see with the Saints hosting a Lombardi, and that scenario doesn't happen to feature Derek Carr in 2025 because I don't view that as realistic, because I think the only way that happens is if Kubiak is the best offensive coordinator in the history of football.

Outstanding analysis.

This is the reason I put these games on my list. Collectively, along with the other 3 division games, they will define the 2024 season for the Saints. If it goes badly:
0-3
1-2
0-2
0-1
----
1-8

Then the season is sunk. However if the Saints can do a little better than treading water:
1-2
2-1
1-1
1-0
----
4-4

Then they have a shot depending on the other 3 division games. But even though this is treading water, this would be a team that can at least can compete because it has wins against upper echelon NFL talent.

It's only going to take 6 weeks to see how the season goes. 1-5 we can write it off. 4-2 or 3-3 especially with 2 division wins means that there is still a chance.

SFIAH

Salient points… with a whole lotta ifs…

That's what Saints seasons are now. A whole lotta ifs. The days of Drew Brees coming in knowing that the offense has 24 points before the game starts and the team has 7 wins in the bank before the season starts are gone.

If everyone stays healthy. If the O-line can hold up enough not to get Carr killed. If the defensive line can get pressure. If the secondary doesn't fall apart for yet another year. If DD56 can be a warrior for yet another year. If Grupe can make the clutch kick when needed. If tthe new guys can grow fast enough to make a contribution.

Every season now is a lot of ifs. It makes every game like a Forrest Gump box of chocolates.

That's why treading water in the first 6 games is going to be crucial. The difference between 1-5 and 3-3 with at least 2 division wins will literally define the entire season.

Hopefully the ifs, especially the injury ones, will be cut down in the first 6 weeks.

SFIAH

since you all like what you read......

ranked

22. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are essentially running it back with the same cast from the 2023 season, albeit with some minor changes. Years of kicking salary-cap problems down the road are finally starting to catch up to New Orleans. Realistically, this team just doesn’t have the talent or youth to be viable in the NFC. Expect Dennis Allen to be featured prominently on the hot seat this fall.

*the hot seat = possibly winning just enough to remain a contender for the (not so hotly contested) NFC SOUTH, keeping the masochists happy to sing “Kumbaya”, and keeping the seat just hot enough to burn the a$$es of loyal fans, but not hot enough to eject Dennis Allen. Sounds about right.

National ranking people are dismissive of the Saints. They didn't even have the Saints ranked #1 after they won the SuperBowl in 2009 in the preseason of 2010.

We just don't know yet how the same RB corps is going to do in this new offense yet.

The Saints are being ranked low because of the uncertainty. Best believe if they find a way to upset Dallas or KC, those national media people will somewhat change their tune.

How about you see if you can find a bit more positive spin. I know it's hard to do. But I bet there is one out there somewhere.

SFIAH

National ranking people are dismissive of the Saints. They didn't even have the Saints ranked #1 after they won the SuperBowl in 2009 in the preseason of 2010.

We just don't know yet how the same RB corps is going to do in this new offense yet.

The Saints are being ranked low because of the uncertainty. Best believe if they find a way to upset Dallas or KC, those national media people will somewhat change their tune.

How about you see if you can find a bit more positive spin. I know it's hard to do. But I bet there is one out there somewhere.

SFIAH

National ranking people are dismissive of the Saints. They didn't even have the Saints ranked #1 after they won the SuperBowl in 2009 in the preseason of 2010.

We just don't know yet how the same RB corps is going to do in this new offense yet.

The Saints are being ranked low because of the uncertainty. Best believe if they find a way to upset Dallas or KC, those national media people will somewhat change their tune.

How about you see if you can find a bit more positive spin. I know it's hard to do. But I bet there is one out there somewhere.

SFIAH