Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

More to my point on violent crime and NFL... The NFl can either suspend a player for a year, or even ban that player completely if caught gambling and the manner of gambling. BUT will promote a player that commits a criminal violent crime such as assault and battery.... Thats the ticket... :beatnik:

The new policy, which was agreed to by both the NFL and the players union, now calls for a one-year suspension for any player who bets on an NFL game and two years if the player bets on his own team’s game. If the league finds that a player fixed a game, they will be banned from the NFL for life.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/09/29/nf...L%20for%20life.

but an active nfl player commits and prosecuted for assault and battery where an innocent victim may have been seriously injured, or worse...said player can still represent the NFL as a player..... me thinks this make no sense. :beatnik: Moreso for each individual team.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

Geno Smith's agent taking a page from Alvin Kamara's agent. 'I've declined, give me a raise and guarantees!'

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profoo...eal-in-seattle

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

I understood why the 49ers were likely forced to extend CMC. Unlike Kamara he seemed to be at the top of his game because everything around him was perfect. But like Kamara he was an older running back in a league where both data and until this offseason conventional wisdom said you dont invest big in an older running back. This trend seemed to be cemented 2 years ago when the Cowboys let Elliott walk, the Vikings let Cook walk, and both had to settle for low paid 1 year deals. But then in 2023 CMC had an MVP caliber season and suddenly older RB's were back in fashion and Kamara tried to get an extension. Many old or injured RB's switched teams and got decent money. Like I said, I understood why the 49ers were under a lot of pressure to extend CMC, and maybe had to do it to avoid a full scale revolt during their Super Bowl window since they were in a position to win now, but long term, and maybe short term, I thought it would likely turn out to be a bad contract.

So, although Kamara played well Week 1 against weak opposition, I think it could change things if the figurehead of the pay old RB's movement CMC deteriorates and is effectively replaced by a young mid round draft pick. We could go back to a market where numerous middle aged RB's are available on cheap 1 year deals.

I think it is smart to be contrarian with some short term fads in the NFL that go against long term data. I am glad we did not pay Kamara at what might be the peak for older RB's in our era. Likewise I am glad we did not do any big extension with Taysom Hill, who may fall under a similar category as an older player who is known more for his physical running style and tackle breaking that anything else. It's nothing personal its just that 30-somethings running the football for the big money is not the future of where the NFL game is headed.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

Read so many BS takes this offseason that he had lost a step. Once again it is easy to see Carmichael was the problem.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

Pay da man!

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

nah.... the thug is making more than enough money. too bad he turned to thuggery. :beatnik:

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

I think its more complicated. It appeared that Kamara had lost a step last year. It appears he hasn't so far this year. But both of those things, not just one, are appearances. There were many runs yesterday where Kamara ran in a straight line and was not touched for a big gain. If we sustain this success there are going to be a lot of people to pay. We won't be able to pay them all. We can't write a blank check to an aging RB just because we have a system in place that is very favorable to our RB. Don't get me wrong, Kamara is a good fit for our system, versatility is highly valuable in our new system. But we also saw the 49ers recently make CMC the highest paid RB in history and then lose him to IR, and now they are finding the backup can rush for 100 yards too. At some point if Kamara wants CMC money it may not make sense. Running backs can be had in free agency and I am not convinced that had our offense couldnt work with a different competent RB if we are opening up giant holes to run through.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

Of course you do. :rolleyes:

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

The man is the face of the franchise right now. Pay The Man!

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

They will. He said he's halfway through his career with the Saints.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

Alvin Kamara is 29 years old. Lets take a factual look at some other great historic running backs and saints running backs and how they faired in rushing yardage (as a simply proxy) from age 25-29 and then age 30-34 to get an idea of projected decline:

Alvin Kamara:
25-29: 932, 898, 897, 694, TBD
30-34: TBD

Marshall Faulk:
25-29: 1319, 1381, 1359, 1382, 953
30-34: 818, 774, 292, retired.

Ladanian Tomlinson:
25-29: 1335, 1462, 1815, 1474, 1110
30-34: 730, 914, 280, retired.

Adrian Peterson:
25-29: 1298, 970, 2097, 1266, 75(inj)
30-34: 1485, 72(inj), 529, 1042, 898

Edgerrin James:
25-29: 1259, 1548, 1506, 1159, 1222
30-34: 514, 125, retired

Shaun Alexander:
25-29: 1175, 1435, 1696, 1880, 896
30-34: 716, 24, retired

Jamal Charles:
25-29: 83(inj), 1509, 1287, 1033, 364
30-34: 40, 296, 7, retired

Lesean McCoy:
25-29: 1607, 1319, 895, 1267, 1138
30-34: 514, 465, 31, retired

Leveon Bell:
25-29: 1291, held out, 789, 328, 101
30-34: retired

Ricky Williams:
25-29: 1853, 1372, took year off, 743, suspended
30-34: 15, 659, 1121, 673, 444

Deuce McAllister:
25-29: 1654, 1074, 335(inj), 1057, 92
30-34: 418, retired

Reggie Bush:
25-29: 150(inj), 1086, 986, 1006, 297
30-34: 28, -3, retired

Mark Ingram II:
25-29: 964, 769, 1043, 1124, 645
30-34: 1018, 299, 554, 233, retired

Marshawn Lynch:
25-29: 1204, 1590, 1257, 1306, 417
30-34: took year off, 891, 376, 34, retired

Thurman Thomas:
25-29: 1407, 1487, 1315, 1093, 1005
30-34: 1033, 643, 381, 152, 136

Barry Sanders:
25-29: 1115, 1883, 1500, 1553, 2053
30-34: 1491 with lowest yards per carry in 6 years by large margin, timed it perfect based on stats and retired.

There are some rare exceptions:

Curtis Martin:
25-29: 1287, 1464, 1204, 1513, 1094
30-34: 1308, 1697, 735 (w/ 3.3ypc), retired

Frank Gore:
25-29: 1036, 1120, 853, 1211, 1214
30-34: 1128, 1106, 967, 1025, 961

Emmitt Smith:
25-29: 1484, 1773, 1204, 1074, 1332
30-34: 1397, 1203, 1021, 975, 256

The most receiving yards any of these three exceptions had in a year after turning 30 was 277. The exceptions seem to be more of the bell cow RB type who are able to sustain above averageness by knowing the system and vision and such, not runners who rely on separation and burst.

I think realistically both the Saints and 49ers would be smart to realize that as brilliant as CMC and Kamara have been in the past, maybe having talent comperable to LaDanian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, and Edgerrin James brilliant careers, all those players declined a great deal after turning 30, and it is highly likely Kamara and CMC will too. It will not be a shock if Kamara has a good year at 29, but the odds have to be about 75% that he will decline greatly if they try to give him big money for year 31.

Pay da man means ignore the stats and history.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your thoughts on signing Kamara Bako, but Here is another data point to add to your evaluation.

You show stats for years 25-29 of these backs' careers I believe. I just went through the first 5 backs on your list (plus Kamara) and came up with the following according to pro football reference.

If you look at their career stats while listed ages 25-29 you will notice that the number of games played for the first six guys listed ranges from 58 for Petersen to 79 for LT. I decided to break it down to each back's workload per 17 game season they would have played from ages 25-29. When you combine rushing attempts and passes targeted you will see that, per season from ages 25-29, these backs had combined rushing and receiving touches of:

E James 435/season
LT 434/season
Faulk 420/season
Shaun A 418/season
AP 393/season
Kamara 357/season

I didn't go any further cause I'm lazy, but I think it's demonstrable that Kamara has had less abuse on his body during this age stage of his career than at least many of these backs did. That also does not include his natural style to avoid hard contact at the end of runs when not needed. Just food for thought.

Edit...I decided to look at McCaffrey as well. He's not 29 yet. But in his last 6 seasons he's played 75 games. He's had 384 combined touches per 17 game season, so more than Kamara; and has had a major injury.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

I see your argument but a 350 to 420 touch ratio is a 5:6 ratio so perhaps that buys an extra year or so at most, maybe 2 if you stretch it back to college. That still makes a new contract at 30 a tough sell. Plus if you look at the runners who i know had less usage like williams with his suspensions and temporary retirement, and reggie and ingram with their splitting time, and bell with his holdout, none of them lasted longer. Also I would say some of these other backs avoided hits. Yet if we look at the 3 who lasted longest it would be martin, smith, and gore, who were not low workload or avoiding hits so much. CMC is probably the worse bet. Also I am not saying its impossible that Kamara will be productive ages 30-32. But I think if you try to replace a RB who was successful at year 29 with a competition of two rookies, your odds of success will be better than hoping you have Emmitt Smith, and your cost will definitely be lower.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

Once a thug.... always a thug. The thug will get no praise from this keyboard. cut bait :beatnik:

Re: Alvin Kamara Says He Wants To Retire With The New Orleans Saints
 

https://www.si.com/nfl/saints/news/w...s-a-smart-move

Alvin Kamara has signed a two-year contract extension worth $24.5 million, ensuring his continued presence with the Saints franchise. The All-Pro running back will receive a $15.5 million signing bonus and $22.3 million in guaranteed money.

Saves 18 MM in 2025

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

Love Kamara as a player. But he's just a complimentary player at this point. Not worth the money and it just adds to the future cap and dead money. Allen and Loomis need to be fired.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

2024 Saints TDs 20

7 - Kamara
3 - Shaheed
2- Moreau
2 - Hill
1 - Johnson
1 - Olave
1 - Williams
1 - Carr
1 - Wilson
1 - Means

In contrast to other RBs he is not worth the money. To Dennis Allen (this is where we get into personal drivers) he might be the only thing between Dennis and a rope.

There is probably an argument for Kamara that is similar to Taysom, defenses have to account for them and that helps other players.

Re: Alvin Kamara Says He Wants To Retire With The New Orleans Saints
 

And once again with Loomis deals that's the main point. He's left so much dead money on the table they couldn't afford to let him walk.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

The timing and the contract details tell me Kamara had all the leverage. And as the trade deadline approached, he used it.

Is Lattimore next in line for a 2 year extension, now that Adebo has likely played his last game in New Orleans?

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

Is it possible to launder dead money? Asking for a friend.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

In the past I have proposed the theory that Mickey Loomis actually receives a percentage kickback from the players or agents for signing them to these amazingly over market contracts. Loomis overpaid Kamara by about $5 million above market per year for 2 years. Thats $10 million. Its easy to see how Kamara or his agent (who stands to gain much in reputation for the amazing contract) might kick back $1-2 million to Loomis. However, this would be embezzlement not laundering. It is common for charming older men to steal money from the accounts of slightly older women.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

He may have made some questionable decisions in his personal life but he is not a fool. I also thought about Lattimore when i saw his contract value looking some things up for Kamara.

What Kamara and/or his agent knows:
1. The Saints have a long track record of being lazy and holding on to players way too long and often paying them more after they should have been gone. I am not even sure this is arguable at this point after Smith, Graham, Peat, Sproles.. The list is very long of namesakes held on to.

2. 'Market value' is not the be-all end-all measurement of a players value unless he is on the market, and it is a better metric for commodities. Market value doesn't work well for one-offs either and is also very much dependent on what else is on the market. It tends to be the metric that people who do not understand value lean upon because it's simple and tangible, but in the end they do not know where those numbers come from.

Black Mamba Antivenom has a market value of $125/vial (6-15 vials is a treatment). Would you pay $1,875 right now for the 15 vials? no..... If you were just bitten you would hand them your check book. :bng:

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

I think you're probably giving Mickey too much credit. It's all about the booze and his ego at this point.

Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
 

The kickbacks could be in the form of booze. A pallet of Gilberts vodka for overpaying Kamara by 5m/yr.