it is a falacy(sp) to try to gauge success based off of where someone was picked. each is a unique situation and there are many other factors that contributed to many of those listed being busts.

to talk about a few:
Jeff George-was a solid qb over the years, but had a serious attitude problem that caused most of his failures on the field.
Heath Shuler-way over hyped at tennesse. scouts listened far too much to those volunteer fans instead of their eyes.
Ryan Leaf-played in a weak conference, was overhyped for 1 great year and 1 good year. had an attitude problem.
Tim Couch-played at kentucky. should be enough said. played in a spread pass happy offense and that was the only reason why he had anywhere close to the numbers he did. if he would have been selected in the 3 or 4th round and got a year or 2 on the bench he might have been a solid back up or decent starter.
Akili Smith -1 great year in the weak Pac-10. this was a no brainner even back when he was drafted.
Michael Vick-some consider him a bust for a #1 pick, but he is exactly what he was advertised as...a game changer. he will never be a qb in the traditional sense, instead he will always be a guy who can change a game with his athletecism and do enough with his arm to get by.
David Carr -i think carr is far from a bust. having nfl ticket, i have watched a lot of his games and he does very well when he has more than 2 seconds to throw the ball.
Joey Harrington-only had 1 great year in the weak Pac-10, but he has looked good at times. he will never prove to be worthy of a top 10 pick, but he could become a solid backup or servicable starter in the future.
Eli Manning-he has been a major success.
Alex Smith-way to early to judge yet. was not rated nearly as high as leinart. had only 1 great year and 1 good year in WAC or Pac-10(can't remember what conference Utah is in right now) both are weak conferences. with a good offensive line, good running game, and continued growth of lloyd he could be very good.