How GB will beat the Saints this weekend

D24pick · 09-14-2006, 10:14 PM

We'll demolish these players, we made those mistakes, but look at all the mistakes GB made...Xan, how bout making a list of that! And how do you know they're ginna address those things against us anyway??? Lay off bro, we won and we're definitely gonna get revenge on these guys

xan · 09-14-2006, 11:37 PM

Cutting through the bravado and "motherhood" assertions, I don't see any of you disputing the issues raised, so you all must agree that these issues are real. And, NOT fixing a significant number of these will result in a loss.

I'm predicting a win, gentlemen, but I'm giving you what a real coach would prepare to beat the Saints based on watching last week's film. If Payton doesn't address these weaknesses, then GB will hand our asses a smoking bad loss just like last year.

GoldRush26 · 09-15-2006, 02:02 AM

Originally Posted by xan

Cutting through the bravado and "motherhood" assertions, I don't see any of you disputing the issues raised, so you all must agree that these issues are real. And, NOT fixing a significant number of these will result in a loss.

I'm predicting a win, gentlemen, but I'm giving you what a real coach would prepare to beat the Saints based on watching last week's film. If Payton doesn't address these weaknesses, then GB will hand our asses a smoking bad loss just like last year.

I can accept this. Of course the Saints have numerous holes and honestly I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we turned around and lost this one in typical Saints fashion. On the other hand, I saw a lot of good things this past week. Intangibles are a big difference for our team this year. Brees is a QB that will be accountable for his play. Smiley was a big factor in us losing that game last year. His early INT that game was the single worst throw I saw from any QB last year, and you guys know it. That killed everyone's spirit. Worst thing is I'm sure he thought it was someone else's fault for him looking the pass right into Al Harris's numbers. Brees may not be a world beater, but I don't see him putting our team in that kind of situation. He may not be great, but he won't be utterly inept either.

saintsrule · 09-15-2006, 04:14 AM

I didn't want Drew on the team, so I hope Deuce and Reggie can carry the offense.

xan · 09-15-2006, 07:25 AM

The other thing we should keep in mind is that we know the Packers' coach and he's not the brightest bulb on the chandelier. Unless he's a devotee of this site, he might not figure some of this out, and even if he did, he probably wouldn't alter his philosophy to exploit the weaknesses.

SaintFanInATLHELL · 09-15-2006, 07:25 AM

Originally Posted by SaintsfaninVA

show some support man, the packers made the bears offense look good. i predict a shootout....SAINTS 27 PACKERS 24

I see no reason as to why a shootout would occur. The Saints defense looked pretty good last week, while GB's offense has shown nothing. There's no reason to believe that the defense will not hold the GB offense to less than 14 points and that Favre will not throw at least two obligitory picks.

Saints 31-10 in a rout. This isn't Haz's Saints anymore.

SFIAH

nedly · 09-15-2006, 08:22 AM

Thinks too much! Especially on how other teams will beat the saints! I'm hoping the Saints win but come on!

FrenzyFan · 09-15-2006, 08:38 AM

Since no one has done it yet, I'll respond to the points raised by xan.

Originally Posted by xan

After finally seeing the Browns-Saints game on the NFL network the other night (GOD BLESS the NFL for finally doing these replays) I have some (probably obvious and trite) observations on what GB will do this weekend.

1) Brees focuses on the primary read too early and too long. Since the offense is new and the players are, too, timing patterns will be off. Brees zeros in on where he wants to go first too long, which will give the safety a chance to cheat a bit on the read. Which leads to...

I thought Brees did a much better job at looking off that our previous QB. That being said, I saw a bit of this. Even with this, the ball was spread around adequately - without the traditional Saints "tunnel-vision" on one receiver. In the past that allowed enemy D coordinators to lock down our one receiver and shut down out O. Not so any more.

Originally Posted by xan

2) Brees is late with his throws. The passes also hang a bit and have less than full zip. Play closer to the receiver, force receivers to take the outside route option and wait for the ball. Even if taking a fake, the late pass should give time to recover.

I don't know what Brees has shown in practice - but his throwing during games leaves a lot to be desired. His throws have no zip, and I am seeing DB jump our routes all the time. It could be timing, it could just be that his arm is dead. No matter what it is, his SMART PLAY offsets this quite a bit and he's still able to be successful - as he showed against a decent Browns defense and excellent play by their secondary.

Originally Posted by xan

3) Attack the middle of the Saints' O-Line. Brees is uncomfortable moving in the pocket laterally. Force him to chose one side of the field and disrupt his reads. Keep the passing game from the middle of the field where his arm strength won't be an issue. Force Brees to make the long timing throw to the sidelines.

Excellent point and agreed. My question is; who do they attack the center of the line with? I didn't see ANY weapons on GB's defense last week, KGB notwithstanding. Did they pick up a bunch of great pass rushers over the week?

Originally Posted by xan

4) Run Blitz. The Saints' o-lne is suspect as it is still gelling. Run blitzing and delayed blitzing will create mismatches and force the runs to the outside where the Pack has speed to pursue. Faking the blitz will force Brees to adjust out of running up the gut. Keep the Saints' power rush game closer to the sidelines.

I can see GB trying this, but I don't think it will be successful at all. We were successful against all blitzes against the the Browns because Brees was able to read the blitz and audible to a quick release play. If GB persists with Run Blitzes all day, expect to see Reggie Bush with two break away runs for TD.

Originally Posted by xan

5) The TE was used for protection against the Browns. Expect more protection schemes for Brees, so keep the best cover linebacker in coverage away from the TE and play for the run over the TE. In 2TE sets, put 8 in the box for run stuffing as the Saints didn't have many pass plays out of that set against the Browns.

Agreed on all points. The Packers will almost certainly game plan this, as they've had a week to watch our film. I don't think it will matter - considering how awful their defense is.

Originally Posted by xan

6) Joe Horn has lost at least a step and a half. Make Joe run sideline routs. Don't use the safety to help here unless he's cheating on Brees' first option tendencies.

This is the one point where I totally disagree with you. Horn did not have his best game, but I lay a great deal of that at the feet of Brees and his problems (mentioned above). I, for one, am very tired of watching our receivers getting drilled in the knees or trying to reel in catches behind, above, under, over, etc. Had my fill under our previous QB and I'm watching Brees do the same things. Before someone thinks I am anti-Brees - read what I wrote above about how his smart play compensates for his current shortcomings.

Originally Posted by xan

7) Use the mobility of Farve to confuse the Saints' D. Rolling pockets, designed scrambles, anything to keep the Saints' DL from going in a straight line. Frye demonstrated that the Saints' personnel don't react well to a mobile qb. Keeping plays alive and drawn out increases the chance that the Saints' secondary will commit a foul.

This one made me laugh. If you think Favre is more mobile than Charlie Frye (who we accounted for last week), then I suspect we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one and no amount of argument will help.

Originally Posted by xan

8) Run up the gut. The Browns had some success running through the middle of the Saints d-line. Keep the Saints focused on the middle of the field and closer to the line of scrimmage.

I think the Saints performance in run support last week speaks for itself. Further, BOTH guards for the Packers are rookies and got totally man-handled last week. That may translate into some "play for pride" success this week, but I question how xan can suggest their O-line arrangement leads to success running up the middle.

Originally Posted by xan

9) Isolate Roman Harper. His head was on a swivel last week, and will be again this week. He was frequently out of position and even when in a position, was confused. Force a penalty and move up the field.

Harper is a rookie and will make rookie mistakes. I saw him make a few trying to cover Winslow (who is a total BEAST, wish we had him). This may translate into some success for GB on a case by case basis. I don't think it turns the course of the game though. I'm encouraged by how well Harper played, considering his experience level, and I LOVE how he seems to be always around the play.

Originally Posted by xan

10) Pass to the tight end. The Saints' D had a particulary hard time with Kellen Winslow no matter who guarded him.

Yes, absolutely. EVERY defense has problems matching up against great TEs. We might need to take the same advice and send it to our Offense.

Originally Posted by xan

11) Slants are effective against the Saints' corners. The faster the better. Packers receivers are decent after the catch, so utilize that feature.

Slants are effective against any corner - they call that a "high percentage pass play" because of this. About all you can do against this type of thing is try to put pressure on the QB, disrupt the route to make the timing more a problem (though this almost never works), or take a risk and jump the route. Course of you do the last and you're wrong - you just gave away a TD. Instead, you play the best D you can and force an enemy offense into producing CONSISTENT success - which is very hard in the NFL. GB is not one of those who can do that.

Originally Posted by xan

12) In the second half, running traps will take advantage of the Saints' D-line over-pursuit. Same thing with screen passes. Try to wear out the D-line by making them pursue from behind.

I call this obvious, traps are a great running play for Green. He is a great cutback runner and traps open opportunities all along the route. He will have some success here. If our LBs play as well as they did last week (an iffy proposition, I grant), then this is a non-factor.

Originally Posted by xan

and finally 13) Make Bush run to the outside and keep him from the middle of the field. He avoids contact so use the sideline as a defender and he'll run out of bounds to avoid the hit. Limit his breakaways this way. Don't over-pursue.

This is the second time I laughed. I watched Reggie Bush play his first game in the NFL last week. I'm convinced he will only get better - and the GB defense is not good as the Browns (that's an opinion, but its based on what I saw in both games). With as many different way as we use Bush, and never knowing where he's going to line up, or at what position, or in what role - how exactly do you do this? Do you stack eight guys in the box all day? I'd love it if they did and the score might look with it did last year with a few exceptions - Saints 56 - Packers 0.

Course I don't think GB will do that, I think they'll try their best to account for Bush and fail. I think Deuce will have a big day. I think Brees will manage the game well. I think we'll win. I think it will be close all game - but we'll win.

xan · 09-15-2006, 09:14 AM

Well done Frenzy. Thank you for going point by point through the analysis. I'm glad that you found some humor in there.

I am not really an expert in the Packers, their playbook or their personnel and I didn't see much of their game save what was used as fodder by ESPN on their brief analysis of the Bears game. Accordingly, I simply gameplanned against what I saw of the Saints-Browns game.

It all comes down to whether the McCarthy team can spot these weaknesses, devise schemes to exploit them and their personnel to execute. My gut tells me that none of these three things will happen to any great degree and that the Saints will dominate. However, I have no basis in reality for that belief.

Please note and give me credit for not plying the forum with the threadbare suggestions of "commit fewer penalties," "commit fewer turnovers," and "dominate time of possession." I'm not a moron and I'm expecting this forum doesn't have (m)any.

FrenzyFan · 09-15-2006, 09:30 AM

I liked your post, and I appreciate when a fan like you takes the time to write something so comprehensive. Doesn't matter if I disagree or not. Speaking of which, it made me feel a lot better going through all those one by one - because now I'm more certain we'll beat GB!

09-15-2006, 02:02 AM	#13
GoldRush26 500th Post Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 594	Originally Posted by xan Cutting through the bravado and "motherhood" assertions, I don't see any of you disputing the issues raised, so you all must agree that these issues are real. And, NOT fixing a significant number of these will result in a loss. I'm predicting a win, gentlemen, but I'm giving you what a real coach would prepare to beat the Saints based on watching last week's film. If Payton doesn't address these weaknesses, then GB will hand our asses a smoking bad loss just like last year. I can accept this. Of course the Saints have numerous holes and honestly I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we turned around and lost this one in typical Saints fashion. On the other hand, I saw a lot of good things this past week. Intangibles are a big difference for our team this year. Brees is a QB that will be accountable for his play. Smiley was a big factor in us losing that game last year. His early INT that game was the single worst throw I saw from any QB last year, and you guys know it. That killed everyone's spirit. Worst thing is I'm sure he thought it was someone else's fault for him looking the pass right into Al Harris's numbers. Brees may not be a world beater, but I don't see him putting our team in that kind of situation. He may not be great, but he won't be utterly inept either.
GoldRush26 500th Post Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 594

09-15-2006, 04:14 AM	#14
saintsrule 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 657	I didn't want Drew on the team, so I hope Deuce and Reggie can carry the offense.
saintsrule 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 657

09-15-2006, 07:25 AM	#16
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,776	Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: How GB will beat the Saints this weekend Originally Posted by SaintsfaninVA show some support man, the packers made the bears offense look good. i predict a shootout....SAINTS 27 PACKERS 24 I see no reason as to why a shootout would occur. The Saints defense looked pretty good last week, while GB's offense has shown nothing. There's no reason to believe that the defense will not hold the GB offense to less than 14 points and that Favre will not throw at least two obligitory picks. Saints 31-10 in a rout. This isn't Haz's Saints anymore. SFIAH

09-15-2006, 08:22 AM	#17
nedly Registered Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 72	This guy..... Thinks too much! Especially on how other teams will beat the saints! I'm hoping the Saints win but come on!
nedly Registered Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 72

09-15-2006, 08:38 AM	#18
FrenzyFan 100th Post Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 406	Re: How GB will beat the Saints this weekend Since no one has done it yet, I'll respond to the points raised by xan. Originally Posted by xan After finally seeing the Browns-Saints game on the NFL network the other night (GOD BLESS the NFL for finally doing these replays) I have some (probably obvious and trite) observations on what GB will do this weekend. 1) Brees focuses on the primary read too early and too long. Since the offense is new and the players are, too, timing patterns will be off. Brees zeros in on where he wants to go first too long, which will give the safety a chance to cheat a bit on the read. Which leads to... I thought Brees did a much better job at looking off that our previous QB. That being said, I saw a bit of this. Even with this, the ball was spread around adequately - without the traditional Saints "tunnel-vision" on one receiver. In the past that allowed enemy D coordinators to lock down our one receiver and shut down out O. Not so any more. Originally Posted by xan 2) Brees is late with his throws. The passes also hang a bit and have less than full zip. Play closer to the receiver, force receivers to take the outside route option and wait for the ball. Even if taking a fake, the late pass should give time to recover. I don't know what Brees has shown in practice - but his throwing during games leaves a lot to be desired. His throws have no zip, and I am seeing DB jump our routes all the time. It could be timing, it could just be that his arm is dead. No matter what it is, his SMART PLAY offsets this quite a bit and he's still able to be successful - as he showed against a decent Browns defense and excellent play by their secondary. Originally Posted by xan 3) Attack the middle of the Saints' O-Line. Brees is uncomfortable moving in the pocket laterally. Force him to chose one side of the field and disrupt his reads. Keep the passing game from the middle of the field where his arm strength won't be an issue. Force Brees to make the long timing throw to the sidelines. Excellent point and agreed. My question is; who do they attack the center of the line with? I didn't see ANY weapons on GB's defense last week, KGB notwithstanding. Did they pick up a bunch of great pass rushers over the week? Originally Posted by xan 4) Run Blitz. The Saints' o-lne is suspect as it is still gelling. Run blitzing and delayed blitzing will create mismatches and force the runs to the outside where the Pack has speed to pursue. Faking the blitz will force Brees to adjust out of running up the gut. Keep the Saints' power rush game closer to the sidelines. I can see GB trying this, but I don't think it will be successful at all. We were successful against all blitzes against the the Browns because Brees was able to read the blitz and audible to a quick release play. If GB persists with Run Blitzes all day, expect to see Reggie Bush with two break away runs for TD. Originally Posted by xan 5) The TE was used for protection against the Browns. Expect more protection schemes for Brees, so keep the best cover linebacker in coverage away from the TE and play for the run over the TE. In 2TE sets, put 8 in the box for run stuffing as the Saints didn't have many pass plays out of that set against the Browns. Agreed on all points. The Packers will almost certainly game plan this, as they've had a week to watch our film. I don't think it will matter - considering how awful their defense is. Originally Posted by xan 6) Joe Horn has lost at least a step and a half. Make Joe run sideline routs. Don't use the safety to help here unless he's cheating on Brees' first option tendencies. This is the one point where I totally disagree with you. Horn did not have his best game, but I lay a great deal of that at the feet of Brees and his problems (mentioned above). I, for one, am very tired of watching our receivers getting drilled in the knees or trying to reel in catches behind, above, under, over, etc. Had my fill under our previous QB and I'm watching Brees do the same things. Before someone thinks I am anti-Brees - read what I wrote above about how his smart play compensates for his current shortcomings. Originally Posted by xan 7) Use the mobility of Farve to confuse the Saints' D. Rolling pockets, designed scrambles, anything to keep the Saints' DL from going in a straight line. Frye demonstrated that the Saints' personnel don't react well to a mobile qb. Keeping plays alive and drawn out increases the chance that the Saints' secondary will commit a foul. This one made me laugh. If you think Favre is more mobile than Charlie Frye (who we accounted for last week), then I suspect we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one and no amount of argument will help. Originally Posted by xan 8) Run up the gut. The Browns had some success running through the middle of the Saints d-line. Keep the Saints focused on the middle of the field and closer to the line of scrimmage. I think the Saints performance in run support last week speaks for itself. Further, BOTH guards for the Packers are rookies and got totally man-handled last week. That may translate into some "play for pride" success this week, but I question how xan can suggest their O-line arrangement leads to success running up the middle. Originally Posted by xan 9) Isolate Roman Harper. His head was on a swivel last week, and will be again this week. He was frequently out of position and even when in a position, was confused. Force a penalty and move up the field. Harper is a rookie and will make rookie mistakes. I saw him make a few trying to cover Winslow (who is a total BEAST, wish we had him). This may translate into some success for GB on a case by case basis. I don't think it turns the course of the game though. I'm encouraged by how well Harper played, considering his experience level, and I LOVE how he seems to be always around the play. Originally Posted by xan 10) Pass to the tight end. The Saints' D had a particulary hard time with Kellen Winslow no matter who guarded him. Yes, absolutely. EVERY defense has problems matching up against great TEs. We might need to take the same advice and send it to our Offense. Originally Posted by xan 11) Slants are effective against the Saints' corners. The faster the better. Packers receivers are decent after the catch, so utilize that feature. Slants are effective against any corner - they call that a "high percentage pass play" because of this. About all you can do against this type of thing is try to put pressure on the QB, disrupt the route to make the timing more a problem (though this almost never works), or take a risk and jump the route. Course of you do the last and you're wrong - you just gave away a TD. Instead, you play the best D you can and force an enemy offense into producing CONSISTENT success - which is very hard in the NFL. GB is not one of those who can do that. Originally Posted by xan 12) In the second half, running traps will take advantage of the Saints' D-line over-pursuit. Same thing with screen passes. Try to wear out the D-line by making them pursue from behind. I call this obvious, traps are a great running play for Green. He is a great cutback runner and traps open opportunities all along the route. He will have some success here. If our LBs play as well as they did last week (an iffy proposition, I grant), then this is a non-factor. Originally Posted by xan and finally 13) Make Bush run to the outside and keep him from the middle of the field. He avoids contact so use the sideline as a defender and he'll run out of bounds to avoid the hit. Limit his breakaways this way. Don't over-pursue. This is the second time I laughed. I watched Reggie Bush play his first game in the NFL last week. I'm convinced he will only get better - and the GB defense is not good as the Browns (that's an opinion, but its based on what I saw in both games). With as many different way as we use Bush, and never knowing where he's going to line up, or at what position, or in what role - how exactly do you do this? Do you stack eight guys in the box all day? I'd love it if they did and the score might look with it did last year with a few exceptions - Saints 56 - Packers 0. Course I don't think GB will do that, I think they'll try their best to account for Bush and fail. I think Deuce will have a big day. I think Brees will manage the game well. I think we'll win. I think it will be close all game - but we'll win.
FrenzyFan 100th Post Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 406	\"The AB brand of TP will hurt your O-ring.\" - BlackandBlue http://www.darrylbercegeay.com/wsmith1.jpg

09-14-2006, 10:14 PM	#11
D24pick 500th Post Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: New Orleans Posts: 578	We'll demolish these players, we made those mistakes, but look at all the mistakes GB made...Xan, how bout making a list of that! And how do you know they're ginna address those things against us anyway??? Lay off bro, we won and we're definitely gonna get revenge on these guys

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09-14-2006, 11:37 PM	#12
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,371 Blog Entries: 34	Cutting through the bravado and "motherhood" assertions, I don't see any of you disputing the issues raised, so you all must agree that these issues are real. And, NOT fixing a significant number of these will result in a loss. I'm predicting a win, gentlemen, but I'm giving you what a real coach would prepare to beat the Saints based on watching last week's film. If Payton doesn't address these weaknesses, then GB will hand our asses a smoking bad loss just like last year.

09-15-2006, 09:14 AM	#19
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,371 Blog Entries: 34	RE: Re: How GB will beat the Saints this weekend Well done Frenzy. Thank you for going point by point through the analysis. I'm glad that you found some humor in there. I am not really an expert in the Packers, their playbook or their personnel and I didn't see much of their game save what was used as fodder by ESPN on their brief analysis of the Bears game. Accordingly, I simply gameplanned against what I saw of the Saints-Browns game. It all comes down to whether the McCarthy team can spot these weaknesses, devise schemes to exploit them and their personnel to execute. My gut tells me that none of these three things will happen to any great degree and that the Saints will dominate. However, I have no basis in reality for that belief. Please note and give me credit for not plying the forum with the threadbare suggestions of "commit fewer penalties," "commit fewer turnovers," and "dominate time of possession." I'm not a moron and I'm expecting this forum doesn't have (m)any.
	Calvin: "I wish I was a Tiger." Hobbes: "Common lament."

09-15-2006, 09:30 AM	#20
FrenzyFan 100th Post Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 406	I liked your post, and I appreciate when a fan like you takes the time to write something so comprehensive. Doesn't matter if I disagree or not. Speaking of which, it made me feel a lot better going through all those one by one - because now I'm more certain we'll beat GB!
FrenzyFan 100th Post Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 406