Coin Toss???

pinch · 11-18-2011, 09:56 PM

Originally Posted by Memnoch_TP

That's the dicey thing about coin toss statistics. The mathematical calculations give that string of results a 1:2048 probability, but the results of the previous 11 tosses have no effect on the next toss. So the chances of us losing the next coin toss are not 1:4096, they are 1:2.

Yes, each individual coin toss has to be considered independently, and each should equate to 1:2. However, the chance that we lose 11 straight (or win 11 straight for that matter) is (1 / 2^11). Since 2 to the 11th power is 2048, there was only a 1:2048 chance that a team could lose 11 times in a row.

The fact is that ANY known 1:2 chance over a consecutive 11 series is 1:2048. So the chance that we see in a coin toss result:

T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T is 1:2048
H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H is 1:2048
H:T:H:T:T:H:T:H:T:T:T is 1:2048

or 11 saints consecutive coin toss wins or losses:

W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W is 1:2048
L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L is 1:2048 (this is the series that we've experienced)
W:L:W:W:L:W:L:W:L:W:L is 1:2048

If we lose next week, then one could say that there was a 1:4096 chance that we lose 12 straight, but the probability of that one coin toss is still 1:2.

Maybe we should start asking the league to spin the coin instead of tossing it? According to Penn & Teller, a spun coin will land on tails closer to 60% of the time because of the extra metal on the head-side of the coin. Then they just have to let us choose the outcome every time and we should re-gain our edge over time!

Edit: Actually we WILL regain our edge over time, as every other team will eventually lose 11 straight as we did (over millions of years, of course)

FinSaint · 11-18-2011, 10:12 PM

Originally Posted by pinch

Maybe we should start asking the league to spin the coin instead of tossing it? According to Penn & Teller, a spun coin will land on tails closer to 60% of the time because of the extra metal on the head-side of the coin.

But I think that they use a special "NFL coin," so it won't probably behave in the same way as a "normal coin" would. If I remember correctly it has the NFL emblem on the other side and something football related on the other one as well... or it could be that they have many different alternative variations.

Barry from MS · 11-14-2011, 06:15 PM

It is something we must work on during the bye.

halloween 65 · 11-14-2011, 07:08 PM

You know it's bad when we make the New York Times paper. I wonder if Drew makes the Pro- Bowl if they will let him call the toss. I wouldn't. 0-11 and counting.

AsylumGuido · 11-17-2011, 10:29 AM

Originally Posted by halloween 65

You know it's bad when we make the New York Times paper. I wonder if Drew makes the Pro- Bowl if they will let him call the toss. I wouldn't. 0-11 and counting.

We haven't only lost every flip on the road (when we call it), but also at home (when the other team calls it). You can't blame it on someone on our team every time.

homerj07 · 11-16-2011, 09:34 PM

I believe it is a defensive problem - I bet we could solve it if we got another LB!!

CharityMike · 11-17-2011, 11:38 PM

Originally Posted by homerj07

I believe it is a defensive problem - I bet we could solve it if we got another LB!!

Maybe we should get #58 to do it. Add another thing to the Shanle koolaid drinkers list of reasons to keep him.

Danno · 11-21-2011, 07:40 AM

Originally Posted by CharityMike

Maybe we should get #58 to do it. Add another thing to the Shanle koolaid drinkers list of reasons to keep him.

LMAO!!!

homerj07 · 11-16-2011, 09:34 PM

Doh

AlaskaSaints · 11-16-2011, 10:12 PM

Losing the coin toss ONLY bothers me if the opposing team defers and kicks off.

I want the ball at the start of the second half. Every time.
We no longer have the dynamite 15-play scripted offense to start games with.

If our defense HOLDS, it is a confidence-builder and confidence-breaker for the opponent. The MOST they will score is 7 on an 8 possible. That gives us a gauge of our defensive play and sets a needed pace that our offense now knows it will have to outscore to win.

If the opposing team turns over the ball in the first drive that also is a morale-breaker. Advantage us.

A Saint touchdown on an opening drive is not groundbreaking. And it gives the defense a false sense of security. I don't like playing from behind. At all, but what I've noticed is that until we are up by 17 there can be no good feeling.

I don't know, maybe we should toss a coin BEFORE the coin toss, to decide what we will do - Receive or Kick.

Best two-out-of-three!!!!

LOL

Alaska

11-18-2011, 09:56 PM	#1
pinch 100th Post Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Diamondhead, MS Posts: 272 Blog Entries: 1	Originally Posted by Memnoch_TP That's the dicey thing about coin toss statistics. The mathematical calculations give that string of results a 1:2048 probability, but the results of the previous 11 tosses have no effect on the next toss. So the chances of us losing the next coin toss are not 1:4096, they are 1:2. Yes, each individual coin toss has to be considered independently, and each should equate to 1:2. However, the chance that we lose 11 straight (or win 11 straight for that matter) is (1 / 2^11). Since 2 to the 11th power is 2048, there was only a 1:2048 chance that a team could lose 11 times in a row. The fact is that ANY known 1:2 chance over a consecutive 11 series is 1:2048. So the chance that we see in a coin toss result: T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T is 1:2048 H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H is 1:2048 H:T:H:T:T:H:T:H:T:T:T is 1:2048 or 11 saints consecutive coin toss wins or losses: W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W is 1:2048 L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L is 1:2048 (this is the series that we've experienced) W:L:W:W:L:W:L:W:L:W:L is 1:2048 If we lose next week, then one could say that there was a 1:4096 chance that we lose 12 straight, but the probability of that one coin toss is still 1:2. Maybe we should start asking the league to spin the coin instead of tossing it? According to Penn & Teller, a spun coin will land on tails closer to 60% of the time because of the extra metal on the head-side of the coin. Then they just have to let us choose the outcome every time and we should re-gain our edge over time! Edit: Actually we WILL regain our edge over time, as every other team will eventually lose 11 straight as we did (over millions of years, of course)

11-18-2011, 10:12 PM	#2
FinSaint Site Donor 2015 Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Finland... formerly Southern Virginia Posts: 4,964	Originally Posted by pinch Maybe we should start asking the league to spin the coin instead of tossing it? According to Penn & Teller, a spun coin will land on tails closer to 60% of the time because of the extra metal on the head-side of the coin. But I think that they use a special "NFL coin," so it won't probably behave in the same way as a "normal coin" would. If I remember correctly it has the NFL emblem on the other side and something football related on the other one as well... or it could be that they have many different alternative variations.

11-14-2011, 06:15 PM	#3
Barry from MS Site Donor 2014 Join Date: May 2007 Location: TEMPO VC Okefenokee Swamp Posts: 1,985 Blog Entries: 2	It is something we must work on during the bye. neugey and Ashley like this.

11-17-2011, 11:38 PM	#7
CharityMike Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Mid City, New Orleans Posts: 3,556	Originally Posted by homerj07 I believe it is a defensive problem - I bet we could solve it if we got another LB!! Maybe we should get #58 to do it. Add another thing to the Shanle koolaid drinkers list of reasons to keep him.

11-21-2011, 07:40 AM	#8
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,758	Originally Posted by CharityMike Maybe we should get #58 to do it. Add another thing to the Shanle koolaid drinkers list of reasons to keep him. LMAO!!!

11-14-2011, 07:08 PM	#4
halloween 65 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Grand Haven, Michigan by way of a little Mississippi River town in Louisiana Posts: 5,893	You know it's bad when we make the New York Times paper. I wonder if Drew makes the Pro- Bowl if they will let him call the toss. I wouldn't. 0-11 and counting.

11-17-2011, 10:29 AM	#5
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,708	Originally Posted by halloween 65 You know it's bad when we make the New York Times paper. I wonder if Drew makes the Pro- Bowl if they will let him call the toss. I wouldn't. 0-11 and counting. We haven't only lost every flip on the road (when we call it), but also at home (when the other team calls it). You can't blame it on someone on our team every time.

11-16-2011, 09:34 PM	#6
homerj07 In Doh We Trust Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Central Florida Posts: 7,027 Blog Entries: 16	I believe it is a defensive problem - I bet we could solve it if we got another LB!!

11-16-2011, 10:12 PM	#10
AlaskaSaints 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Anchorage, AK Posts: 2,484 Blog Entries: 2	Losing the coin toss ONLY bothers me if the opposing team defers and kicks off. I want the ball at the start of the second half. Every time. We no longer have the dynamite 15-play scripted offense to start games with. If our defense HOLDS, it is a confidence-builder and confidence-breaker for the opponent. The MOST they will score is 7 on an 8 possible. That gives us a gauge of our defensive play and sets a needed pace that our offense now knows it will have to outscore to win. If the opposing team turns over the ball in the first drive that also is a morale-breaker. Advantage us. A Saint touchdown on an opening drive is not groundbreaking. And it gives the defense a false sense of security. I don't like playing from behind. At all, but what I've noticed is that until we are up by 17 there can be no good feeling. I don't know, maybe we should toss a coin BEFORE the coin toss, to decide what we will do - Receive or Kick. Best two-out-of-three!!!! LOL Alaska
	HERE WE COME, TA GE' CHU!!!!