swampwiz

I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L)

NO -> DAL
NO -> CAR
WAS -> DAL
BAL -> NYG
PHI -> NYG
HOU -> MIN
GB -> MIN
AZ -> CHI
DET -> CHI

and also either one of:

TB -> STL
SEA -> STL

If all this happens, then these teams would all be 8-8:

NO, DAL, NYG, CHI, MIN

with the possibility also of TB being 8-8.

For the wild-card spot, first ties are broken within each division, thus

NO beats out TB because of head to head

DAL beats out NYG because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

MIN beats out CHI because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

So then there would be a tie breaker for:

NO, DAL, MIN

and since all these teams have not played (and thus not even the possibility of beating or having been beaten by the other teams), and the next tie breaker of common games is not applicable because there must be at least 4 such games (and there are not), the next tie breaker is conference record in which there would be:

NO - 6-6
MIN - 6-6
DAL - 5-7

which would eliminate DAL, with the highest tie breaker then between NO & MIN being common games (of which there would be 5 such games), with the record as:

NO - GB (L), TB (W,W), WAS (L), SF (L) = 2-3
MIN - GB (L,L), TB (L), WAS (L), SF (W) = 1-4

thus NO would beat out MIN.

I noticed that someone had posted within an earlier thread the possibility of WAS losing 2 games. For that scenario to play out, it would mean that WAS & NYG would be in contention for the last wild-card spot, and in which WAS would beat out NYG due to a better division record. thus a 3-way tie between NO, WAS & MIN. Unfortunately, WAS has beaten both NO & MIN, so WAS would win the tie-breaker.

It should be noted that WAS & DAL have a game against each other left, so it is impossible for both to lose all their remaining games.

I welcome any critique of my analysis.