The Importance of Deuce

WhoDat · 02-09-2005, 02:09 PM

I just took a quick look at the numbers for the last two years, and the results are not suprising, but they are compelling.

In 2003 and 2004, in games the Saints won they averaged 101 yards rushing and 27 points. In games that they lost, they averaged only 76 yards rushing and 16 points. That's a huge difference, especially on the scoreboard. Deuce may not score a ton, but it appears that the team does when he is successful.

I think this type of analysis, while incomplete to be sure, gives compelling insight into why the Saints need to make Deuce a top priority this off-season - not just in signing him long-term, but in taking steps to insure that he stays healthy and in-shape for ALL of next season.

ScottyRo · 02-09-2005, 02:17 PM

At first blush the 25 yard difference seems miniscule, but after thinking it over it might make more sense like this...

25 yards could very well be 13 two yard gains that converted on third down and kept drives alive. Just think how much more efficient our O would be with 13 more first downs per game.

just another perspective...

GumboBC · 02-09-2005, 02:18 PM

In 2003 and 2004, in games the Saints won they averaged 101 yards rushing and 27 points. In games that they lost, they averaged only 76 yards rushing and 16 points.

It\'s easy to beat a team when they are One Dimensional !!

Which is what the Saints\' offense was this year. No running game, to speak of, except for the last 4 games.

Brooks led the league in passes attempted. Why? Because we had no running game and our defense couldn\'t stop anyone.

That\'s why I feel McCarthy was made a scape-goat!!

There\'s NO doubt we need Deuce. And there\'s no doubt we need him to stay healthy and producitve.

ScottyRo · 02-09-2005, 02:26 PM

McCarthy a scapegoat? Hardly. People on this board, myself included, have been calling for his head for two seasons. He\'s done the same idiotic stuff for too long and all I can say is good ridance.

Deuce is a prime example of where McCarthy struggled. In \'03 I became so irritated because it seemed like on 95% of the 3rd&1s and 4th&1s he called for deuce up the middle orbetween guard and tackle and we got stuffed on many of those. Add to it that he ran a screen 2 or 3 times a game and NEVER did one work very well. He just sucked.

The RB position is of huge importance especially when you\'re iffy at QB. Sign Deuce NOW.

GumboBC · 02-09-2005, 02:30 PM

ScottyRo --

In a way ... I\'m glad McCarthy is gone. Like you, I felt McCarthy had gotten predictable with his play calling.

But as WhoDat pointed out:

In 2003 and 2004, in games the Saints won they averaged 101 yards rushing and 27 points. In games that they lost, they averaged only 76 yards rushing and 16 points. That\'s a huge difference, especially on the scoreboard.

Maybe McCarty\'s offense is only productive when we\'re able to run the ball? I don\'t know. But, I do know when we were able to run the ball that our offense was VERY productive. Especially on the score-board.

Is it possible that Deuce\'s injury and the offensive line prevented McCarthy\'s offense from being successful?

WhoDat · 02-09-2005, 03:54 PM

Again, this is a very minimal analysis, and it\'s not complete by any means, but...

You can see Deuce\'s impact certainly in terms of points scored. But, to put it into perspective: Brooks averages 230 yards per game (over the last two seasons). When the Saints win, he averages 233. When they lose, he averages 227. That\'s not much of a difference now is it.

However, when Deuce is utilized well, it appears Brooks\' job gets easier. When Deuce goes for 100 yards or more AB averages only 209, as compared to 234 when Deuce is under 100. Still not a huge difference, but it would appear, at least minimally, that the more Deuce is involved the less AB has to do, the more likely the team is to score, and the odds of winning increase. Again, there are a great number of factors not in this equation, but it is some good food for thought.

Tobias-Reiper · 02-09-2005, 04:23 PM

... in all honesty, such a stat only tells me that when you win, your stats usually look good, and when you lose, your stats usually look bad... so I don\'t find it compelling at all... averages are just that, averages...

..take a 25 carries, 100 yard game by a RB... is that good? Statswise, sure, it\'s good... You divide 100 by 25 and you get 4 yards per carry. But what if the RB got 75 yards in one run? Then it don\'t look so good, does it?

..had to go back to stress one point: I like Dulymus. I like how he plays, I like his attitude, and he\'s a very, very good RB with extremely under-utilized catching abilities (that\'s mainly because the Saints can\'t run a screen to save their lives) .. so this is not a knock on Deuce, it\'s a knock on stats..

... the importance of Deuce is the threat of the big play... he\'s big, powerful, and deceivingly fast... and if you are a DC, you have to keep your LB\'s tight...

[Edited on 9/2/2005 by Tobias-Reiper]

Danno · 02-09-2005, 04:33 PM

As awesome and important as he is to this team I hope he realizes how important it is to NOT come into camp fat and out of shape.
I think enough has been made of his conditioning that he\'s probably got a little chip on his shoulder now. And thats a good thing.
I predict he\'ll come into 2005 at a fit 228, and regain his breakaway speed. But I\'m a true optimist.

baronm · 02-09-2005, 05:11 PM

the thing is-duece is doing what everyone predictd out of ole miss--he\'s starting to show up out of shape and that isn\'t a good sign.

JKool · 02-10-2005, 11:08 AM

Who,

Interesting post.

Can I get some clarification on the \"utilizing Duece\"? Our run to pass distribution was like 46-54 per 100 plays. That means we ran almost 50% of the time. Of course, Duece was hurt for a couple of games, but they DID \"utilize him\".

I\'m going to agree with this: put Duece back in a formation he is comfortable with (i.e. one with a FB and probably just one TE), and stop d--king around with 2TEs, and he\'ll play better.

However, it is not clear to me that Duece was so under-utilized as people seem to think. It is my view that the OLine was just so poor, as was the scheming (at least some of the time) that Duece just couldn\'t have been much more effective this year (injury aside, of course).

[Edited on 10/2/2005 by JKool]

02-09-2005, 02:09 PM	#1
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	The Importance of Deuce I just took a quick look at the numbers for the last two years, and the results are not suprising, but they are compelling. In 2003 and 2004, in games the Saints won they averaged 101 yards rushing and 27 points. In games that they lost, they averaged only 76 yards rushing and 16 points. That's a huge difference, especially on the scoreboard. Deuce may not score a ton, but it appears that the team does when he is successful. I think this type of analysis, while incomplete to be sure, gives compelling insight into why the Saints need to make Deuce a top priority this off-season - not just in signing him long-term, but in taking steps to insure that he stays healthy and in-shape for ALL of next season.
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631

02-09-2005, 02:17 PM	#2
ScottyRo 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Williamsburg, VA (ugh, the food here) Posts: 1,704	The Importance of Deuce At first blush the 25 yard difference seems miniscule, but after thinking it over it might make more sense like this... 25 yards could very well be 13 two yard gains that converted on third down and kept drives alive. Just think how much more efficient our O would be with 13 more first downs per game. just another perspective...

02-09-2005, 02:18 PM	#3
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	The Importance of Deuce In 2003 and 2004, in games the Saints won they averaged 101 yards rushing and 27 points. In games that they lost, they averaged only 76 yards rushing and 16 points. It\'s easy to beat a team when they are One Dimensional !! Which is what the Saints\' offense was this year. No running game, to speak of, except for the last 4 games. Brooks led the league in passes attempted. Why? Because we had no running game and our defense couldn\'t stop anyone. That\'s why I feel McCarthy was made a scape-goat!! There\'s NO doubt we need Deuce. And there\'s no doubt we need him to stay healthy and producitve.
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

02-09-2005, 02:26 PM	#4
ScottyRo 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Williamsburg, VA (ugh, the food here) Posts: 1,704	The Importance of Deuce McCarthy a scapegoat? Hardly. People on this board, myself included, have been calling for his head for two seasons. He\'s done the same idiotic stuff for too long and all I can say is good ridance. Deuce is a prime example of where McCarthy struggled. In \'03 I became so irritated because it seemed like on 95% of the 3rd&1s and 4th&1s he called for deuce up the middle orbetween guard and tackle and we got stuffed on many of those. Add to it that he ran a screen 2 or 3 times a game and NEVER did one work very well. He just sucked. The RB position is of huge importance especially when you\'re iffy at QB. Sign Deuce NOW.

02-09-2005, 02:30 PM	#5
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	The Importance of Deuce ScottyRo -- In a way ... I\'m glad McCarthy is gone. Like you, I felt McCarthy had gotten predictable with his play calling. But as WhoDat pointed out: In 2003 and 2004, in games the Saints won they averaged 101 yards rushing and 27 points. In games that they lost, they averaged only 76 yards rushing and 16 points. That\'s a huge difference, especially on the scoreboard. Maybe McCarty\'s offense is only productive when we\'re able to run the ball? I don\'t know. But, I do know when we were able to run the ball that our offense was VERY productive. Especially on the score-board. Is it possible that Deuce\'s injury and the offensive line prevented McCarthy\'s offense from being successful?
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

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02-09-2005, 03:54 PM	#6
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	The Importance of Deuce Again, this is a very minimal analysis, and it\'s not complete by any means, but... You can see Deuce\'s impact certainly in terms of points scored. But, to put it into perspective: Brooks averages 230 yards per game (over the last two seasons). When the Saints win, he averages 233. When they lose, he averages 227. That\'s not much of a difference now is it. However, when Deuce is utilized well, it appears Brooks\' job gets easier. When Deuce goes for 100 yards or more AB averages only 209, as compared to 234 when Deuce is under 100. Still not a huge difference, but it would appear, at least minimally, that the more Deuce is involved the less AB has to do, the more likely the team is to score, and the odds of winning increase. Again, there are a great number of factors not in this equation, but it is some good food for thought.
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	\"Excuses, excuses, excuses. ThatÃ¢Â€Â™s all anyone ever makes for the New Orleans SaintsÃ¢Â€Â™ organization.\" - Eric Narcisse \"Being a Saints fan is almost like being addicted to crack,\" he said.[i]\"You know you should stop, but you just can\'t.\"

02-09-2005, 04:23 PM	#7
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	The Importance of Deuce ... in all honesty, such a stat only tells me that when you win, your stats usually look good, and when you lose, your stats usually look bad... so I don\'t find it compelling at all... averages are just that, averages... ..take a 25 carries, 100 yard game by a RB... is that good? Statswise, sure, it\'s good... You divide 100 by 25 and you get 4 yards per carry. But what if the RB got 75 yards in one run? Then it don\'t look so good, does it? ..had to go back to stress one point: I like Dulymus. I like how he plays, I like his attitude, and he\'s a very, very good RB with extremely under-utilized catching abilities (that\'s mainly because the Saints can\'t run a screen to save their lives) .. so this is not a knock on Deuce, it\'s a knock on stats.. ... the importance of Deuce is the threat of the big play... he\'s big, powerful, and deceivingly fast... and if you are a DC, you have to keep your LB\'s tight... [Edited on 9/2/2005 by Tobias-Reiper]
	'Cause the simple man pays the thrills, the bills and the pills that kill

02-09-2005, 04:33 PM	#8
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,713	The Importance of Deuce As awesome and important as he is to this team I hope he realizes how important it is to NOT come into camp fat and out of shape. I think enough has been made of his conditioning that he\'s probably got a little chip on his shoulder now. And thats a good thing. I predict he\'ll come into 2005 at a fit 228, and regain his breakaway speed. But I\'m a true optimist.

02-09-2005, 05:11 PM	#9
baronm 500th Post Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 954	The Importance of Deuce the thing is-duece is doing what everyone predictd out of ole miss--he\'s starting to show up out of shape and that isn\'t a good sign.
baronm 500th Post Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 954

02-10-2005, 11:08 AM	#10
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	The Importance of Deuce Who, Interesting post. Can I get some clarification on the \"utilizing Duece\"? Our run to pass distribution was like 46-54 per 100 plays. That means we ran almost 50% of the time. Of course, Duece was hurt for a couple of games, but they DID \"utilize him\". I\'m going to agree with this: put Duece back in a formation he is comfortable with (i.e. one with a FB and probably just one TE), and stop d--king around with 2TEs, and he\'ll play better. However, it is not clear to me that Duece was so under-utilized as people seem to think. It is my view that the OLine was just so poor, as was the scheming (at least some of the time) that Duece just couldn\'t have been much more effective this year (injury aside, of course). [Edited on 10/2/2005 by JKool]
	"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks