Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out

05-17-2016, 01:45 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league?

I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game.

Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense.

Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year.

The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season.

My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack.

FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3.

So I ask again: fix exactly what?

SFIAH

Grest post bruh. Great ****ing post.

SaintFanInATLHELL · 05-17-2016, 01:48 PM

Originally Posted by Euphoria

If they can establish the run takes care of everything!!!

This is the same discussion I have with my brother. I'll say here the same thing I say to him:

It's a waste of time.

Payton has been HC going on 10 years. He was an OC before then. He has never run the ball with any real consistency. And frankly, between he and Brees, they never ever will. For those of you who are not clued in, the Saints offense always comes to the line with two called plays, typically a run and a pass. Brees switches to the other play by calling "Kill! Kill!". Observe how many times he changes the play to a pass and you'll understand what I'm talking about.

It may be forgotten that Payton had his playcalling duties taken away from him in Dallas by Parcells because he didn't run the ball consistently.

The only time the Saints have run the ball consistently in the last 10 years is late in the game with a lead.

The last two years with the terrible defense, those opportunities are few and far between.

If you want a more consistent running game, then set up a defense that can hold a lead. Otherwise, forget it.

And BTW my opinion is that while running the ball effectively may make the offense more explosive, due to more effective play action, that it really doesn't make the Saints' offense too much more efficient. In today's NFL more yards and more efficiency comes from the passing game. Over the last 10 years Brees has averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. That the average of all passes both complete and incomplete along with interceptions. The highest career running back yards per carry is 5.5 with Jamaal Charles of KC. What exactly is the fixation on running the ball when you can get nearly double the number of yards each time you try to throw it?

SFIAH

WillSaints81 · 05-17-2016, 05:43 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league?

I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game.

Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense.

Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year.

The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season.

My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack.

FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3.

So I ask again: fix exactly what?

SFIAH

Here we go again with the offense needing to be carried by the defense. Where were the packers, colts, and cowboys in these rankings? They were dealing with injuries. Otherwise saints are behind them. And the old offense would be better than Arizona.

WillSaints81 · 05-17-2016, 06:00 PM

I just remember us being up 14-0 on Carolina, got back to back stops early against Detroit, held eagles to 13 points in their place in the first half, the defense did not break until after the offense did in these games. How does an improved defense help us score 20 points in Houston, 27 points against Dallas, avoiding what happened to Brees against TB, and the choke against Tennessee(come on you really think we were gonna shut them out?)? We had good first q defenses last year outside of NYG and Was, fluke starts against Az and Hou, but the offenses were poor and led the defense to collapse.

ScottF · 05-17-2016, 06:45 PM

Team Quarterback Sacked Per Game: 2015 NFL Season

and FYI- this asinine article isn't about the strength of our line, it's about building a line from the center out, and how we supposedly only employ short guards and centers because Brees can't see over them.

ChrisXVI · 05-17-2016, 07:48 PM

This might be a good place for this article... Let's just say maybe the players aren't the problem:

Dan Roushar giving Saints offensive line new life after disappointing year | NOLA.com

WillSaints81 · 05-17-2016, 09:48 PM

^Saw that on the other forum. More secrets. I remember when Streif said last year there was no magic formula after being 0-2. I guess he was referring to the oline.

How similar is Roushar to Kromer?

K Major · 05-17-2016, 10:00 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

What matters is that it doesn't matter because the defense is so bad, so terrible, so horrible, so inept, so awful, that it doesn't make any difference.

SFIAH

Agreed. The defense has been anemic, historically bad over the last two years.

The Dude · 05-17-2016, 10:04 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league?

I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game.

Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense.

Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year.

The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season.

My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack.

FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3.

So I ask again: fix exactly what?

SFIAH

You are right about the stats. People ***** that our offense has lost a step, and statistically it hasnt. Brees had less interceptions than he has in years last year and we torched some pretty decent defenses. Our line does still need work though. If for no other reason than to extend Brees career AND help the next guy develop after Brees leaves. Even if our defense does improve we will still win only 7-8 games if our offense slips at all. An offensive line always needs work.
Ours has especially lacked in run blocking as of late.

Also all that statistical dribble made my head hurt.

We ran the ball just fine in 09 and 11. Top 5 if I am not mistaken.

WillSaints81 · 05-18-2016, 01:02 AM

Are we expecting a defense that can play a whole half constantly on the field non-stop with no breaks in between?

05-17-2016, 01:45 PM	#11
Threaded by rezburna 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Kenner, LA Posts: 8,131 Rating: (0 votes - average) Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league? I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game. Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense. Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year. The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season. My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack. FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3. So I ask again: fix exactly what? SFIAH Grest post bruh. Great ****ing post. SaintFanInATLHELL likes this.
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05-17-2016, 01:48 PM	#12
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,788	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out Originally Posted by Euphoria If they can establish the run takes care of everything!!! This is the same discussion I have with my brother. I'll say here the same thing I say to him: It's a waste of time. Payton has been HC going on 10 years. He was an OC before then. He has never run the ball with any real consistency. And frankly, between he and Brees, they never ever will. For those of you who are not clued in, the Saints offense always comes to the line with two called plays, typically a run and a pass. Brees switches to the other play by calling "Kill! Kill!". Observe how many times he changes the play to a pass and you'll understand what I'm talking about. It may be forgotten that Payton had his playcalling duties taken away from him in Dallas by Parcells because he didn't run the ball consistently. The only time the Saints have run the ball consistently in the last 10 years is late in the game with a lead. The last two years with the terrible defense, those opportunities are few and far between. If you want a more consistent running game, then set up a defense that can hold a lead. Otherwise, forget it. And BTW my opinion is that while running the ball effectively may make the offense more explosive, due to more effective play action, that it really doesn't make the Saints' offense too much more efficient. In today's NFL more yards and more efficiency comes from the passing game. Over the last 10 years Brees has averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. That the average of all passes both complete and incomplete along with interceptions. The highest career running back yards per carry is 5.5 with Jamaal Charles of KC. What exactly is the fixation on running the ball when you can get nearly double the number of yards each time you try to throw it? SFIAH rezburna likes this.
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

05-17-2016, 05:43 PM	#13
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,285	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league? I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game. Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense. Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year. The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season. My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack. FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3. So I ask again: fix exactly what? SFIAH Here we go again with the offense needing to be carried by the defense. Where were the packers, colts, and cowboys in these rankings? They were dealing with injuries. Otherwise saints are behind them. And the old offense would be better than Arizona.

05-17-2016, 06:00 PM	#14
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,285	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out I just remember us being up 14-0 on Carolina, got back to back stops early against Detroit, held eagles to 13 points in their place in the first half, the defense did not break until after the offense did in these games. How does an improved defense help us score 20 points in Houston, 27 points against Dallas, avoiding what happened to Brees against TB, and the choke against Tennessee(come on you really think we were gonna shut them out?)? We had good first q defenses last year outside of NYG and Was, fluke starts against Az and Hou, but the offenses were poor and led the defense to collapse.

05-17-2016, 06:45 PM	#15
ScottF 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 6,324	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out Team Quarterback Sacked Per Game: 2015 NFL Season and FYI- this asinine article isn't about the strength of our line, it's about building a line from the center out, and how we supposedly only employ short guards and centers because Brees can't see over them. hagan714 likes this.

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05-17-2016, 07:48 PM	#16
ChrisXVI 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 11,482	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out This might be a good place for this article... Let's just say maybe the players aren't the problem: Dan Roushar giving Saints offensive line new life after disappointing year \| NOLA.com hagan714 likes this.

05-17-2016, 09:48 PM	#17
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,285	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out ^Saw that on the other forum. More secrets. I remember when Streif said last year there was no magic formula after being 0-2. I guess he was referring to the oline. How similar is Roushar to Kromer?

05-17-2016, 10:00 PM	#18
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,862 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL What matters is that it doesn't matter because the defense is so bad, so terrible, so horrible, so inept, so awful, that it doesn't make any difference. SFIAH Agreed. The defense has been anemic, historically bad over the last two years. SaintFanInATLHELL likes this.

05-17-2016, 10:04 PM	#19
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,066	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league? I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game. Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense. Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year. The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season. My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack. FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3. So I ask again: fix exactly what? SFIAH You are right about the stats. People ***** that our offense has lost a step, and statistically it hasnt. Brees had less interceptions than he has in years last year and we torched some pretty decent defenses. Our line does still need work though. If for no other reason than to extend Brees career AND help the next guy develop after Brees leaves. Even if our defense does improve we will still win only 7-8 games if our offense slips at all. An offensive line always needs work. Ours has especially lacked in run blocking as of late. Also all that statistical dribble made my head hurt. We ran the ball just fine in 09 and 11. Top 5 if I am not mistaken.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,066	"Where life had no value, death, sometimes, had its price. That is why the bounty killers appeared."

05-18-2016, 01:02 AM	#20
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,285	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out Are we expecting a defense that can play a whole half constantly on the field non-stop with no breaks in between?

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