Not sure that's the case. We have the 2010 season as a sample. The offense dropped from 1st to 11th in scoring from 2009 while the defense rose from the low 20s to the top 10. Team ended up 11-5, which while ending up a small step back, certainly wasn't a complete disaster.

Also there's no substantive evidence that the offense is going to be significantly different that it's been in the past. As a scientist I'm a strong believer that past performance mitigated by changes are a strong predictor of future expectations. Considering the performance of the offense last year, coupled with what are effectively minor changes in the offseason, there's no reason to believe that the offense will be much different than it's been in the past. Frankly if the offense was really going to take a step back it should have been last year when Graham was traded. He was a major cog in how the offense operated. But it didn't miss a beat.

SFIAH