I was wrong

burningmetal · 11-11-2016, 09:36 AM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

Amazingly it has already started to happen. I saw a Saints discussion on ESPN's NFL Live this wee analyzing the prospects of the 6 current 4-4 teams in the league. Both analysts (Hasselback and Saturday) thought the Saints were in good shape.

BTW national NFL coverage is close to your assessment. But there is the extra bonus when playing last year's Superbowl constestants both winner and loser. We get them back to back Sunday and Thursday. Come out 2-0 against them with a 6-4 record and a winning streak, The Saints will be in the discussion.

Finally national media respect superstars. Their mantra has been "Brees is great. Defense is terrible." I figure we'll get upgraded to "Brees is great, defense and running game is adequate." when we find a way to win both of the next two games.

In fact it's already started to turn. One of the nuggets in the "defense is terrible" category is last years defense giving up an NFL record 45 TD passes. Spouted out on shows like NFL live in every Saints segment. After 8 games this defense has given up only 11. Also pointed out in the segment above. One of the items seeming to move the defensive perception of being better forward.

SFIAH

Yeah when the Saints play a team of note, they have to talk about us a little bit. There's no doubt that, especially in this very weak year in the NFL, this team is right in the middle of the playoff race. Forget down the road, we're in it now. But nobody is going to take this team seriously as true contenders to make some noise in the postseason until the defense gets better. It's true about the touchdown passes against being way down, but the overall points against are about the same.

I have no idea what to expect from any of the players who are coming back. We got two back last week and it didn't go well for the unit, as a whole. But hopefully they will shake off the rust and improve. IF they do, then people will really take notice.

I actually expect a win this week. A few weeks ago I would have said beating the Broncos is possible, but not likely. I don't feel that way at all now. Their defense has surprisingly struggled against the run, which gives us an opportunity to have a balanced attack again. That, you would think, will neutralize their pass rush. Offensively, they just aren't good. Of course, we said that about the 49ers last week, but the Saints just overplayed the Kaepernick's running ability. Semien is more of a scrambler than a runner. I like the matchup. Plus, this offense has gotten better from a few weeks ago. A win here will go a long way toward being taken seriously.

K Major · 11-11-2016, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

I actually expect a win this week. A few weeks ago I would have said beating the Broncos is possible, but not likely. I don't feel that way at all now. Their defense has surprisingly struggled against the run, which gives us an opportunity to have a balanced attack again. Semien is more of a scrambler than a runner. I like the matchup. Plus, this offense has gotten better from a few weeks ago. A win here will go a long way toward being taken seriously.

Yep. Listening to 104.3 Denver sport fan radio the other day, Semien is not playing at 100% so his mobility will be limited & they are really down on RB (Booker) & quite possibly he lose some snaps on Sunday.
Talib & Wolfe are out and Chris Harris have not played particularly well @ corner. The last thing Denver want is a track meet inside a noisy dome.

I think Brees will pick apart their secondary & HT/MI rushing combo will be very effective. That dome will be LOUD.

Saints 27-14

.

SaintFanInATLHELL · 11-11-2016, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

Yeah when the Saints play a team of note, they have to talk about us a little bit. There's no doubt that, especially in this very weak year in the NFL, this team is right in the middle of the playoff race. Forget down the road, we're in it now. But nobody is going to take this team seriously as true contenders to make some noise in the postseason until the defense gets better.

You give national media too much credit. There are only about 3 criteria for currying their favor:

1. Be on the east coast + Dallas who plays teams on the east coast, or last years SB participants.
2. Have a winning record.
3. Beat or play teams from group #1.

The Saints are not in group #1. However, they can be 6-4 in less than a week and get there by beating both of last year's SB participants. That will put them squarely on the national media radar.

It's true about the touchdown passes against being way down, but the overall points against are about the same.

On average I agree. But the Saints' defense has been a tale of two streaks: the losing streak in the beginning (1-3) and the current winning streak (3-1).

Also I never attribute points to the defense when the defense isn't on the field. This season so far there's been 2 pick-6s, a fumble and a blocked kick all returned for TD. So let's look at the averages with those removed points:

losing streak: 34+9+38+34: 28.75 PPG
winning streak: 38+20+13+23 : 23.5 PPG

Compared to 462/16 (Brees had 2 pick-6s in 2015) : 28.875 the defense is 5 PPG down during the winning streak and is close to 3 PPG down overall.

I have no idea what to expect from any of the players who are coming back. We got two back last week and it didn't go well for the unit, as a whole. But hopefully they will shake off the rust and improve. IF they do, then people will really take notice.

This defense is never going to be great this season. They are never going to be lockdown. Not this season with the personnel and injuries they have. But if they can stay in the top 10 in takeaways, and can get scoring towards 23 where they have been the last 3 weeks, then the middle of the road is a substantial improvement over the train wreck of the last couple of seasons.

SFIAH

burningmetal · 11-11-2016, 07:59 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

You give national media too much credit. There are only about 3 criteria for currying their favor:

1. Be on the east coast + Dallas who plays teams on the east coast, or last years SB participants.
2. Have a winning record.
3. Beat or play teams from group #1.

The Saints are not in group #1. However, they can be 6-4 in less than a week and get there by beating both of last year's SB participants. That will put them squarely on the national media radar.

On average I agree. But the Saints' defense has been a tale of two streaks: the losing streak in the beginning (1-3) and the current winning streak (3-1).

Also I never attribute points to the defense when the defense isn't on the field. This season so far there's been 2 pick-6s, a fumble and a blocked kick all returned for TD. So let's look at the averages with those removed points:

losing streak: 34+9+38+34: 28.75 PPG
winning streak: 38+20+13+23 : 23.5 PPG

Compared to 462/16 (Brees had 2 pick-6s in 2015) : 28.875 the defense is 5 PPG down during the winning streak and is close to 3 PPG down overall.

This defense is never going to be great this season. They are never going to be lockdown. Not this season with the personnel and injuries they have. But if they can stay in the top 10 in takeaways, and can get scoring towards 23 where they have been the last 3 weeks, then the middle of the road is a substantial improvement over the train wreck of the last couple of seasons.

SFIAH

I'm actually giving the media less credit than you are. I already identified the Dallas "america's team" bias. We are mostly in agreement except that you say having a winning record makes the media pay attention. I'm saying you have to beat a couple of teams of note (they have one so far, against Seattle) and you have to show enough balance as a team for people to respect you. You are of the opinion that beating the Panthers matters to them, but we've already done that and everyone said "well, the Panthers are a train wreck".

As far as the defense is concerned, I didn't say they needed to be lock down. I just said they need to get better than they are, and consistently creating more turnovers is something I already mentioned. That's an obvious one.

And I agree about pick sixes not being the fault of the defense, but giving up almost 500 yards to the last place offense is a sure sign that this defense has a lot of improving to do.

11-11-2016, 09:36 AM	#1
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: I was wrong Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL Amazingly it has already started to happen. I saw a Saints discussion on ESPN's NFL Live this wee analyzing the prospects of the 6 current 4-4 teams in the league. Both analysts (Hasselback and Saturday) thought the Saints were in good shape. BTW national NFL coverage is close to your assessment. But there is the extra bonus when playing last year's Superbowl constestants both winner and loser. We get them back to back Sunday and Thursday. Come out 2-0 against them with a 6-4 record and a winning streak, The Saints will be in the discussion. Finally national media respect superstars. Their mantra has been "Brees is great. Defense is terrible." I figure we'll get upgraded to "Brees is great, defense and running game is adequate." when we find a way to win both of the next two games. In fact it's already started to turn. One of the nuggets in the "defense is terrible" category is last years defense giving up an NFL record 45 TD passes. Spouted out on shows like NFL live in every Saints segment. After 8 games this defense has given up only 11. Also pointed out in the segment above. One of the items seeming to move the defensive perception of being better forward. SFIAH Yeah when the Saints play a team of note, they have to talk about us a little bit. There's no doubt that, especially in this very weak year in the NFL, this team is right in the middle of the playoff race. Forget down the road, we're in it now. But nobody is going to take this team seriously as true contenders to make some noise in the postseason until the defense gets better. It's true about the touchdown passes against being way down, but the overall points against are about the same. I have no idea what to expect from any of the players who are coming back. We got two back last week and it didn't go well for the unit, as a whole. But hopefully they will shake off the rust and improve. IF they do, then people will really take notice. I actually expect a win this week. A few weeks ago I would have said beating the Broncos is possible, but not likely. I don't feel that way at all now. Their defense has surprisingly struggled against the run, which gives us an opportunity to have a balanced attack again. That, you would think, will neutralize their pass rush. Offensively, they just aren't good. Of course, we said that about the 49ers last week, but the Saints just overplayed the Kaepernick's running ability. Semien is more of a scrambler than a runner. I like the matchup. Plus, this offense has gotten better from a few weeks ago. A win here will go a long way toward being taken seriously.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

11-11-2016, 10:06 AM	#2
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,830 Blog Entries: 3	Re: I was wrong Originally Posted by burningmetal I actually expect a win this week. A few weeks ago I would have said beating the Broncos is possible, but not likely. I don't feel that way at all now. Their defense has surprisingly struggled against the run, which gives us an opportunity to have a balanced attack again. Semien is more of a scrambler than a runner. I like the matchup. Plus, this offense has gotten better from a few weeks ago. A win here will go a long way toward being taken seriously. Yep. Listening to 104.3 Denver sport fan radio the other day, Semien is not playing at 100% so his mobility will be limited & they are really down on RB (Booker) & quite possibly he lose some snaps on Sunday. Talib & Wolfe are out and Chris Harris have not played particularly well @ corner. The last thing Denver want is a track meet inside a noisy dome. I think Brees will pick apart their secondary & HT/MI rushing combo will be very effective. That dome will be LOUD. Saints 27-14 .

11-11-2016, 01:08 PM	#3
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,783	Re: I was wrong Originally Posted by burningmetal Yeah when the Saints play a team of note, they have to talk about us a little bit. There's no doubt that, especially in this very weak year in the NFL, this team is right in the middle of the playoff race. Forget down the road, we're in it now. But nobody is going to take this team seriously as true contenders to make some noise in the postseason until the defense gets better. You give national media too much credit. There are only about 3 criteria for currying their favor: 1. Be on the east coast + Dallas who plays teams on the east coast, or last years SB participants. 2. Have a winning record. 3. Beat or play teams from group #1. The Saints are not in group #1. However, they can be 6-4 in less than a week and get there by beating both of last year's SB participants. That will put them squarely on the national media radar. It's true about the touchdown passes against being way down, but the overall points against are about the same. On average I agree. But the Saints' defense has been a tale of two streaks: the losing streak in the beginning (1-3) and the current winning streak (3-1). Also I never attribute points to the defense when the defense isn't on the field. This season so far there's been 2 pick-6s, a fumble and a blocked kick all returned for TD. So let's look at the averages with those removed points: losing streak: 34+9+38+34: 28.75 PPG winning streak: 38+20+13+23 : 23.5 PPG Compared to 462/16 (Brees had 2 pick-6s in 2015) : 28.875 the defense is 5 PPG down during the winning streak and is close to 3 PPG down overall. I have no idea what to expect from any of the players who are coming back. We got two back last week and it didn't go well for the unit, as a whole. But hopefully they will shake off the rust and improve. IF they do, then people will really take notice. This defense is never going to be great this season. They are never going to be lockdown. Not this season with the personnel and injuries they have. But if they can stay in the top 10 in takeaways, and can get scoring towards 23 where they have been the last 3 weeks, then the middle of the road is a substantial improvement over the train wreck of the last couple of seasons. SFIAH AsylumGuido likes this.
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

11-11-2016, 07:59 PM	#4
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: I was wrong Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL You give national media too much credit. There are only about 3 criteria for currying their favor: 1. Be on the east coast + Dallas who plays teams on the east coast, or last years SB participants. 2. Have a winning record. 3. Beat or play teams from group #1. The Saints are not in group #1. However, they can be 6-4 in less than a week and get there by beating both of last year's SB participants. That will put them squarely on the national media radar. On average I agree. But the Saints' defense has been a tale of two streaks: the losing streak in the beginning (1-3) and the current winning streak (3-1). Also I never attribute points to the defense when the defense isn't on the field. This season so far there's been 2 pick-6s, a fumble and a blocked kick all returned for TD. So let's look at the averages with those removed points: losing streak: 34+9+38+34: 28.75 PPG winning streak: 38+20+13+23 : 23.5 PPG Compared to 462/16 (Brees had 2 pick-6s in 2015) : 28.875 the defense is 5 PPG down during the winning streak and is close to 3 PPG down overall. This defense is never going to be great this season. They are never going to be lockdown. Not this season with the personnel and injuries they have. But if they can stay in the top 10 in takeaways, and can get scoring towards 23 where they have been the last 3 weeks, then the middle of the road is a substantial improvement over the train wreck of the last couple of seasons. SFIAH I'm actually giving the media less credit than you are. I already identified the Dallas "america's team" bias. We are mostly in agreement except that you say having a winning record makes the media pay attention. I'm saying you have to beat a couple of teams of note (they have one so far, against Seattle) and you have to show enough balance as a team for people to respect you. You are of the opinion that beating the Panthers matters to them, but we've already done that and everyone said "well, the Panthers are a train wreck". As far as the defense is concerned, I didn't say they needed to be lock down. I just said they need to get better than they are, and consistently creating more turnovers is something I already mentioned. That's an obvious one. And I agree about pick sixes not being the fault of the defense, but giving up almost 500 yards to the last place offense is a sure sign that this defense has a lot of improving to do.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

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