Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats

saintswhodi · 03-24-2005, 05:02 PM

LB you are right. Might as well give up. How would one player getting the MAJORITY of passes thrown his way as opposed to other receivers on the team prove a lock on mentality? Silly me. To say \"well he only throws 28% of the passes to Horn\" is just plain stupid. What is he gonna throw 100% to him? 50%? I doubt in the history of the NFL that there has been numbers like that. But 28.2% with YOUR NEXT BEST GUY being at 19% seems like a wide margin of difference to me, and I have shown that, repeatedly. I have also shown other so-called \"lock no\" QBs find their second and third options more often than AB. But whatever. You told me once LB I was wasting my time trying to talk sense into some, sorry I doubted you.

JKool · 03-24-2005, 05:06 PM

Well, I got into this one a bit late, so you\'ll have to disregard my earlier post as it was outdated by the time I was able to post it.

Here is a point of contention:

How does one use stats to show if a QB is \"locked on\" to one WR?

Two possibilities:
(1) Number of pass thrown to \"lock on\" target.
(2) Pass distribution over the team\'s WRs.

Notice that neither of these tell you if the QB was locked on directly, since these are the results of the play, not the process (where \"locking on\" occurs).

Thus, we need an argument to take us from (1) or (2) above to the conclusion that Brooks locked on to Horn.

Here are some suggestions:

(1) seems to show whether a particular WRs was thrown the ball more often than he should. This can only be done by comparing the number of times thrown to the #1 reciever of the other teams (there is the context). This seems to be Billy\'s point; the number of passes thrown to Horn vs. all other recievers (not broken down) is about the same as any other #1 receiver.

(2) will require an evaluation of the teams recievers with the team being compared to. Why? If a QB isn\'t stupid, he\'s going to throw it to the guy who will make the catch. So the context for this argument is a bit more complicated - not only do you have to show that the distribution of passes is different from our team to the team being compared, but you\'d have to say something about why a QB may or may not throw to a given receiver very often. The only way to show that he is locked on, in this case, will be to also show that the second and third WRs (as well as the TE and RB) are as good receiving options on both teams. This seems to be Whodi\'s point - the distribution shows that Brooks puts it to Joe at a higher rate when compared to the individual other players. The point that remains to be made is whether or not there is good reason for Brooks to throw to Horn more often than these other guys. Futhermore, formation distribution (how often the 3 wide set, or 2TE set, and so on) is used will matter here too.

saintswhodi · 03-24-2005, 05:13 PM

Now Kool, I agree with what you said. My point was never that AB may not have had REASON to lock onto Joe, my point was simply that he does. I see you have broken it down it to a better explanaion than myself. Kudos. If that was the bone of contention, I accept full responsibility. I never thought to get into the reasons he may lock onto Joe, just simply to show he does.

Not to waste my stats, but I looked at last year\'s numbers too. AB threw the ball toward Joe 130 times. Second best was PAthon at 79. That\'s another huge margin. Stallworth was only at 50 but he was hurt half the year so I thought Pathon was a better judge.

SO all in all Kool, maybe AB doesn;t have the confidence to throw to the other guys, and I can understand that. But it doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t lock on, which he does, IMO.

JKool · 03-24-2005, 05:22 PM

I think what has been shown is this:

After Horn, AB distributes the passes pretty evenly. On other teams, after the number one guy, there is a number two guy who gets the ball more often than the other receivers.

The stats that have been given show that the number two receiver gets the ball more on other teams than he does on ours. It isn\'t clear to me that that is \"locking on\", but it is an interesting fact, isn\'t it?

PS - I\'m glad you liked that point about the reason for the distribution Whodi; I worked hard on getting it just right.

bignic26 · 03-24-2005, 05:30 PM

GumboBC keeps saying that he proved that Brooks doesn\'t lock in on Horn. How can you say that you proved anything? I\'ve been keeping up with you and Whodi\'s debate all day, and I must say that Whodi clearly came out on top of this discussion. That\'s just my opinion though.

Also I think that had you not tripped up over your own numbers a few times, you may have presented a better argument. One last thing, I don\'t think it was fair that you were insinuating that Whodi was making up things to support his views. Where\'s the trust?

JKool · 03-24-2005, 05:34 PM

There are no \"proofs\".

My view, bignic, is that they were talking about two different things. Thus, my post earlier. I think both made interesting cases, and while I didn\'t enjoy reading all the jabs, I thought the outcome was actually pretty interesting, don\'t you?

GumboBC · 03-24-2005, 05:35 PM

You can lead a horse to water, but you got to hit him over the head to make him take a drink.

Anyone thirsty?

Look folks!!!

AB threw the ball to JOE HORN 28.2 % of the time. Get this people ... That means AB threw the ball some where other than to JOE HORN 71.8% of the time.

Do we all understand this? I certainly hope so because it\'s simple math. Adding and subtracting ain\'t hard to do.

Who cares where AB threw the ball to when he wasn\'t throwing it to Joe Horn. The POINT is (and I know it is because I started this damn thread myself) that AB doesn\'t lock on to Joe Horn any more than other NFL QBS.

Are we clear. Please someone tell me you understand this. I feel like I\'m teaching 4th graders.

JKool · 03-24-2005, 05:37 PM

Billy.

I understood your point and summarized it above. I can also see why the distribution of passes and to whom might be interesting.

No need to get excited. Two different points were made. Both interesting. I\'m not sure what to think yet. I don\'t think they show \"locking on\", but it isn\'t obvious to me that they don\'t either.

GumboBC · 03-24-2005, 05:41 PM

Billy.

I understood your point and summarized it above. I can also see why the distribution of passes and to whom might be interesting.

No need to get excited. Two different points were made. Both interesting. I\'m not sure what to think yet. I don\'t think they show \"locking on\", but it isn\'t obvious to me that they don\'t either.

Frustration showing, huh? Okay, I\'m calm now.

Look, my point wasn\'t pass \"distribution\" to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, wide receivers.

My point was pass distribution to JOE HORN. Who cares if AB throws to his TEs, RBs, or whatever more than his number 3 receiver? It\'s not relevent to this discussion.

I don\'t even know how this turned into a discussion about the 2nd and 3rd WRs.

bignic26 · 03-24-2005, 05:44 PM

I thought the outcome was actually pretty interesting, don\'t you? [/quote:2dc402d6d4]

As do I JK. Despite the acusation of lying, I thought overall this was a very well thought out debate on both sides. Go back and look at what Whodi posted to start this battle and it\'s funny what all came from that simple statment.

There were alot of compelling stats. While I\'m far from being a stat man myself, I rather enjoyed pondering all those numbers.

03-24-2005, 05:02 PM	#61
saintswhodi 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: San Antonio, TX Posts: 6,941	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats LB you are right. Might as well give up. How would one player getting the MAJORITY of passes thrown his way as opposed to other receivers on the team prove a lock on mentality? Silly me. To say \"well he only throws 28% of the passes to Horn\" is just plain stupid. What is he gonna throw 100% to him? 50%? I doubt in the history of the NFL that there has been numbers like that. But 28.2% with YOUR NEXT BEST GUY being at 19% seems like a wide margin of difference to me, and I have shown that, repeatedly. I have also shown other so-called \"lock no\" QBs find their second and third options more often than AB. But whatever. You told me once LB I was wasting my time trying to talk sense into some, sorry I doubted you.

03-24-2005, 05:06 PM	#62
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats Well, I got into this one a bit late, so you\'ll have to disregard my earlier post as it was outdated by the time I was able to post it. Here is a point of contention: How does one use stats to show if a QB is \"locked on\" to one WR? Two possibilities: (1) Number of pass thrown to \"lock on\" target. (2) Pass distribution over the team\'s WRs. Notice that neither of these tell you if the QB was locked on directly, since these are the results of the play, not the process (where \"locking on\" occurs). Thus, we need an argument to take us from (1) or (2) above to the conclusion that Brooks locked on to Horn. Here are some suggestions: (1) seems to show whether a particular WRs was thrown the ball more often than he should. This can only be done by comparing the number of times thrown to the #1 reciever of the other teams (there is the context). This seems to be Billy\'s point; the number of passes thrown to Horn vs. all other recievers (not broken down) is about the same as any other #1 receiver. (2) will require an evaluation of the teams recievers with the team being compared to. Why? If a QB isn\'t stupid, he\'s going to throw it to the guy who will make the catch. So the context for this argument is a bit more complicated - not only do you have to show that the distribution of passes is different from our team to the team being compared, but you\'d have to say something about why a QB may or may not throw to a given receiver very often. The only way to show that he is locked on, in this case, will be to also show that the second and third WRs (as well as the TE and RB) are as good receiving options on both teams. This seems to be Whodi\'s point - the distribution shows that Brooks puts it to Joe at a higher rate when compared to the individual other players. The point that remains to be made is whether or not there is good reason for Brooks to throw to Horn more often than these other guys. Futhermore, formation distribution (how often the 3 wide set, or 2TE set, and so on) is used will matter here too.
	"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

03-24-2005, 05:13 PM	#63
saintswhodi 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: San Antonio, TX Posts: 6,941	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats Now Kool, I agree with what you said. My point was never that AB may not have had REASON to lock onto Joe, my point was simply that he does. I see you have broken it down it to a better explanaion than myself. Kudos. If that was the bone of contention, I accept full responsibility. I never thought to get into the reasons he may lock onto Joe, just simply to show he does. Not to waste my stats, but I looked at last year\'s numbers too. AB threw the ball toward Joe 130 times. Second best was PAthon at 79. That\'s another huge margin. Stallworth was only at 50 but he was hurt half the year so I thought Pathon was a better judge. SO all in all Kool, maybe AB doesn;t have the confidence to throw to the other guys, and I can understand that. But it doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t lock on, which he does, IMO.

03-24-2005, 05:22 PM	#64
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats I think what has been shown is this: After Horn, AB distributes the passes pretty evenly. On other teams, after the number one guy, there is a number two guy who gets the ball more often than the other receivers. The stats that have been given show that the number two receiver gets the ball more on other teams than he does on ours. It isn\'t clear to me that that is \"locking on\", but it is an interesting fact, isn\'t it? PS - I\'m glad you liked that point about the reason for the distribution Whodi; I worked hard on getting it just right.
	"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

03-24-2005, 05:30 PM	#65
bignic26 100th Post Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 122	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats GumboBC keeps saying that he proved that Brooks doesn\'t lock in on Horn. How can you say that you proved anything? I\'ve been keeping up with you and Whodi\'s debate all day, and I must say that Whodi clearly came out on top of this discussion. That\'s just my opinion though. Also I think that had you not tripped up over your own numbers a few times, you may have presented a better argument. One last thing, I don\'t think it was fair that you were insinuating that Whodi was making up things to support his views. Where\'s the trust?
bignic26 100th Post Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 122	We are the music makers, And we are the dreamers of dreams

Latest Blogs
2023 New Orleans Saints: Training Camp Last Blog: 08-01-2023 By: MarchingOn Puck the Fro Browl! Last Blog: 02-05-2023 By: neugey CFP: "Just Keep Doing What You're Doing" Last Blog: 12-08-2022 By: neugey

03-24-2005, 05:34 PM	#66
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats There are no \"proofs\". My view, bignic, is that they were talking about two different things. Thus, my post earlier. I think both made interesting cases, and while I didn\'t enjoy reading all the jabs, I thought the outcome was actually pretty interesting, don\'t you?

03-24-2005, 05:35 PM	#67
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats You can lead a horse to water, but you got to hit him over the head to make him take a drink. Anyone thirsty? Look folks!!! AB threw the ball to JOE HORN 28.2 % of the time. Get this people ... That means AB threw the ball some where other than to JOE HORN 71.8% of the time. Do we all understand this? I certainly hope so because it\'s simple math. Adding and subtracting ain\'t hard to do. Who cares where AB threw the ball to when he wasn\'t throwing it to Joe Horn. The POINT is (and I know it is because I started this damn thread myself) that AB doesn\'t lock on to Joe Horn any more than other NFL QBS. Are we clear. Please someone tell me you understand this. I feel like I\'m teaching 4th graders.
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

03-24-2005, 05:37 PM	#68
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats Billy. I understood your point and summarized it above. I can also see why the distribution of passes and to whom might be interesting. No need to get excited. Two different points were made. Both interesting. I\'m not sure what to think yet. I don\'t think they show \"locking on\", but it isn\'t obvious to me that they don\'t either.

03-24-2005, 05:41 PM	#69
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats Billy. I understood your point and summarized it above. I can also see why the distribution of passes and to whom might be interesting. No need to get excited. Two different points were made. Both interesting. I\'m not sure what to think yet. I don\'t think they show \"locking on\", but it isn\'t obvious to me that they don\'t either. Frustration showing, huh? Okay, I\'m calm now. Look, my point wasn\'t pass \"distribution\" to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, wide receivers. My point was pass distribution to JOE HORN. Who cares if AB throws to his TEs, RBs, or whatever more than his number 3 receiver? It\'s not relevent to this discussion. I don\'t even know how this turned into a discussion about the 2nd and 3rd WRs.
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

03-24-2005, 05:44 PM	#70
bignic26 100th Post Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 122	Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats I thought the outcome was actually pretty interesting, don\'t you? [/quote:2dc402d6d4] As do I JK. Despite the acusation of lying, I thought overall this was a very well thought out debate on both sides. Go back and look at what Whodi posted to start this battle and it\'s funny what all came from that simple statment. There were alot of compelling stats. While I\'m far from being a stat man myself, I rather enjoyed pondering all those numbers.
bignic26 100th Post Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 122