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Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Vegas odds have nothing to do with what the odds makers think will happen. It has everything to do with how they view the public's perception. If they feel the majority of the betting public thinks ...

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Old 05-02-2017, 03:20 PM   #31
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Vegas odds have nothing to do with what the odds makers think will happen. It has everything to do with how they view the public's perception. If they feel the majority of the betting public thinks the Saints while win less than 8.5 games they are are actually banking on the Saints winning MORE than 8.5 games.

I'll take that over bet in a minute.
good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost
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Old 05-02-2017, 04:15 PM   #32
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

2018 Draft
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only two possibilities.
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Old 05-02-2017, 04:17 PM   #33
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by spkb25 View Post
good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost
Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries.
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Old 05-02-2017, 04:43 PM   #34
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by ScottF View Post
You are correct as always, Professor, but...
wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5?
there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5
I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

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Old 05-02-2017, 04:50 PM   #35
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by spkb25 View Post
good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost
Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.
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Old 05-02-2017, 05:05 PM   #36
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL View Post
I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH
Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line.

Yes. It is art.

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill
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Old 05-02-2017, 05:06 PM   #37
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by Utah_Saint View Post
Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.
Guess that means I would have pushed.
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Old 05-02-2017, 05:20 PM   #38
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by Utah_Saint View Post
Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.
I do too, but is it enough? We are getting very close.
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Old 05-02-2017, 05:21 PM   #39
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries.
so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl?
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Old 05-02-2017, 05:27 PM   #40
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Originally Posted by spkb25 View Post
so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl?
Expect that Rankins will break another leg? Expect that P.J. will get sandwiched the exact same way? Expect that Delvin Breaux will break another leg? Expect that Vacarro will serve another suspension?

No. I don't expect any of that.
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