Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Rugby Saint II · 05-02-2017, 12:45 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

I guess it's time for my bi-annual reminder about Vegas lines:

The lines have nothing to do with reality. They are set only to balance the betting money on both sides of the bet. So if the win line for the Saints is 8.5, that only means that half the betting public believes the Saints will win more while the other half believes they will win less.

As I said, it's all about perception, and nothing to do with reality.

SFIAH

Exactly. Why would people who don't follow our team as closely as we do think we will be any better than another 7-9 season without signing marquee players? The nation in general doesn't have a clue how improved we are.

I hesitate to predict any win/loss ratio until after training camp but I feel like we will come out of nowhere like we did during our Super bowl run.

ScottF · 05-02-2017, 02:41 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

I guess it's time for my bi-annual reminder about Vegas lines:

The lines have nothing to do with reality. They are set only to balance the betting money on both sides of the bet. So if the win line for the Saints is 8.5, that only means that half the betting public believes the Saints will win more while the other half believes they will win less.

As I said, it's all about perception, and nothing to do with reality.

SFIAH

You are correct as always, Professor, but...
wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5?
there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5

SaintFanInATLHELL · 05-02-2017, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by ScottF

You are correct as always, Professor, but...
wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5?
there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido

would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

AsylumGuido · 05-02-2017, 05:05 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line.

Yes. It is art.

CheramieIII · 05-02-2017, 03:13 PM

Here's is an example of the accuracy of Vegas when it comes to the NFL:

These are the last 5 weeks of 2016 Statistics Beats the NFL Point Spread

Right 11 and Wrong 15

Not good at all.

hagan714 · 05-02-2017, 04:15 PM

2018 Draft
Top 16
bottom 16

only two possibilities.

jeanpierre · 05-02-2017, 07:28 PM

Well, I don't go to Vegas to bet on the Saints if you know what I mean...

AsylumGuido · 05-03-2017, 08:00 AM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Well, I don't go to Vegas to bet on the Saints if you know what I mean...

Niether do I, but I have been known to do just that while there.

WillSaints81 · 05-03-2017, 06:43 PM

As hard as it will be, it is our turn to sweep Atlanta. And I don't see us sweeping TB.

turbo_dog · 05-03-2017, 07:30 PM

I threw down 20 bills on our boys to win it all this year. Vegas gave me 60/1 odds, so I'll collect $1200.

#WHODAT!!!

Here's to a healthy and productive season!

05-02-2017, 12:45 PM	#1
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,117	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL I guess it's time for my bi-annual reminder about Vegas lines: The lines have nothing to do with reality. They are set only to balance the betting money on both sides of the bet. So if the win line for the Saints is 8.5, that only means that half the betting public believes the Saints will win more while the other half believes they will win less. As I said, it's all about perception, and nothing to do with reality. SFIAH Exactly. Why would people who don't follow our team as closely as we do think we will be any better than another 7-9 season without signing marquee players? The nation in general doesn't have a clue how improved we are. I hesitate to predict any win/loss ratio until after training camp but I feel like we will come out of nowhere like we did during our Super bowl run.

05-02-2017, 02:41 PM	#2
ScottF 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 6,324	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL I guess it's time for my bi-annual reminder about Vegas lines: The lines have nothing to do with reality. They are set only to balance the betting money on both sides of the bet. So if the win line for the Saints is 8.5, that only means that half the betting public believes the Saints will win more while the other half believes they will win less. As I said, it's all about perception, and nothing to do with reality. SFIAH You are correct as always, Professor, but... wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5? there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5

05-02-2017, 04:43 PM	#3
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,781	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by ScottF You are correct as always, Professor, but... wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5? there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5 I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house. So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better. But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

05-02-2017, 05:05 PM	#4
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house. So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better. But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line. SFIAH Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line. Yes. It is art.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

05-02-2017, 03:13 PM	#5
CheramieIII Fan Since 1967 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Nomad Posts: 7,489 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Here's is an example of the accuracy of Vegas when it comes to the NFL: These are the last 5 weeks of 2016 Statistics Beats the NFL Point Spread Right 11 and Wrong 15 Not good at all. hagan714 likes this.

05-02-2017, 04:15 PM	#6
hagan714 LB Mentallity Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,870 Blog Entries: 68	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season 2018 Draft Top 16 bottom 16 only two possibilities.

05-02-2017, 07:28 PM	#7
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Well, I don't go to Vegas to bet on the Saints if you know what I mean... Seer1 likes this.
	Last edited by jeanpierre; 05-02-2017 at 09:06 PM..

05-03-2017, 08:00 AM	#8
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by jeanpierre Well, I don't go to Vegas to bet on the Saints if you know what I mean... Niether do I, but I have been known to do just that while there.

05-03-2017, 06:43 PM	#9
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,267	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season As hard as it will be, it is our turn to sweep Atlanta. And I don't see us sweeping TB.

05-03-2017, 07:30 PM	#10
turbo_dog 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Atlanta Posts: 1,635	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season I threw down 20 bills on our boys to win it all this year. Vegas gave me 60/1 odds, so I'll collect $1200. #WHODAT!!! Here's to a healthy and productive season!

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