And so it begins...

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context.

I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want.

You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want.

Well, I was a senior systems analyst (also wearing a senior business analyst's hat) with a degree in accounting. I actually dealt hands on with data for years "slicing and dicing" to fit the project manager's needs. I managed my share of projects, as well. I know probabilities as well as most and have dealt with health related probability data extensively given I designed all of the reporting for a HMO/PPO company for almost twenty years.

Without knowing strict input parameters your chart is meaningless. There are far too many variables involved. But, even if accurate, your chart shows a high probability that Murray should have one of his four most productive NFL seasons (his 6th) in 2019 and still perform at a high level for the two seasons following.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 03:50 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.

Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts.

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 04:05 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts.

I'm done. If you think he's going to tear it up just like Meredith was suppose to do go for it. I live in reality. The odds of that happening are about as close to zero as possible. It doesn't matter what data I present either because you know you'll never accept it so what are we talking about. His rushing numbers have been dropping for 3 years and he was not the starter until injuries hit. If he was not the starter then what does that tell you. Obviously nothing.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 04:11 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

I'm done. If you think he's going to tear it up just like Meredith was suppose to do go for it. I live in reality. The odds of that happening are about as close to zero as possible. It doesn't matter what data I present either because you know you'll never accept it so what are we talking about. His rushing numbers have been dropping for 3 years and he was not the starter until injuries hit. If he was not the starter then what does that tell you. Obviously nothing.

Like I thought. You can't give me the source of your production chart. So, if you are SO confident of your research that you are positive he will not be as productive as Ozigbo then pony up the bet.

$20 says Murray has more carries the last eight games than Ozigbo. I'm sure your data wouldn't lie to you, right?

Edit: And I would love to see that data that you presented. All you showed was a Google generated chart.

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 07:09 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Like I thought. You can't give me the source of your production chart. So, if you are SO confident of your research that you are positive he will not be as productive as Ozigbo then pony up the bet.

$20 says Murray has more carries the last eight games than Ozigbo. I'm sure your data wouldn't lie to you, right?

Edit: And I would love to see that data that you presented. All you showed was a Google generated chart.

Let me get this straight. You already lost money on Meredith but want to roll the dice again. Ok. I'll bet you $20 Murray does not make it 8 games period. Best I can do. He will not play in more than 8 games in the regular season.

If he does I'll be glad to pay it. I actually want to see a 30 year old RB beat the odds. It's a great story.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

Let me get this straight. You already lost money on Meredith but want to roll the dice again. Ok. I'll bet you $20 Murray does not make it 8 games period. Best I can do. He will not play in more than 8 games in the regular season.

If he does I'll be glad to pay it. I actually want to see a 30 year old RB beat the odds. It's a great story.

You have that bet.

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 09:15 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

You have that bet.

What can I say, I have a big heart. Giving you a chance to earn your Meredith money back. Nobody else is doing that.

08-13-2019, 03:24 PM	#1
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by AsylumGuido One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context. I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want. You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 03:37 PM	#2
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,871	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want. Well, I was a senior systems analyst (also wearing a senior business analyst's hat) with a degree in accounting. I actually dealt hands on with data for years "slicing and dicing" to fit the project manager's needs. I managed my share of projects, as well. I know probabilities as well as most and have dealt with health related probability data extensively given I designed all of the reporting for a HMO/PPO company for almost twenty years. Without knowing strict input parameters your chart is meaningless. There are far too many variables involved. But, even if accurate, your chart shows a high probability that Murray should have one of his four most productive NFL seasons (his 6th) in 2019 and still perform at a high level for the two seasons following.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

08-13-2019, 03:50 PM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,871	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy. Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts.

08-13-2019, 04:05 PM	#4
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts. I'm done. If you think he's going to tear it up just like Meredith was suppose to do go for it. I live in reality. The odds of that happening are about as close to zero as possible. It doesn't matter what data I present either because you know you'll never accept it so what are we talking about. His rushing numbers have been dropping for 3 years and he was not the starter until injuries hit. If he was not the starter then what does that tell you. Obviously nothing.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 04:11 PM	#5
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,871	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode I'm done. If you think he's going to tear it up just like Meredith was suppose to do go for it. I live in reality. The odds of that happening are about as close to zero as possible. It doesn't matter what data I present either because you know you'll never accept it so what are we talking about. His rushing numbers have been dropping for 3 years and he was not the starter until injuries hit. If he was not the starter then what does that tell you. Obviously nothing. Like I thought. You can't give me the source of your production chart. So, if you are SO confident of your research that you are positive he will not be as productive as Ozigbo then pony up the bet. $20 says Murray has more carries the last eight games than Ozigbo. I'm sure your data wouldn't lie to you, right? Edit: And I would love to see that data that you presented. All you showed was a Google generated chart.

08-13-2019, 07:09 PM	#6
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Like I thought. You can't give me the source of your production chart. So, if you are SO confident of your research that you are positive he will not be as productive as Ozigbo then pony up the bet. $20 says Murray has more carries the last eight games than Ozigbo. I'm sure your data wouldn't lie to you, right? Edit: And I would love to see that data that you presented. All you showed was a Google generated chart. Let me get this straight. You already lost money on Meredith but want to roll the dice again. Ok. I'll bet you $20 Murray does not make it 8 games period. Best I can do. He will not play in more than 8 games in the regular season. If he does I'll be glad to pay it. I actually want to see a 30 year old RB beat the odds. It's a great story.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 07:55 PM	#7
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,871	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode Let me get this straight. You already lost money on Meredith but want to roll the dice again. Ok. I'll bet you $20 Murray does not make it 8 games period. Best I can do. He will not play in more than 8 games in the regular season. If he does I'll be glad to pay it. I actually want to see a 30 year old RB beat the odds. It's a great story. You have that bet.

08-13-2019, 09:15 PM	#8
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by AsylumGuido You have that bet. What can I say, I have a big heart. Giving you a chance to earn your Meredith money back. Nobody else is doing that.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

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