Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-07-2020, 01:35 AM

Originally Posted by blackangold

No, your not using the Oxford model because that is estimating IFR to be 5-6x of the common flu. Your also ignoring the fact that 90% of fatalities have at least 1 per-existing condition. Take this into consideration and factor in that mitigation is occurring, then understand that the US model WAS showing 140-220k deaths mid March which has already been reduced to 80k as of yesterday.

Go ahead and provide a link to the model. I linked the projections and actual Oxford model of IFR on page 2 of this thread.

Edit:
Here is an excerpt if you don’t want to look at the research article.

“ We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.*”

The Oxford Model has a major flaw in assuming that a large portion of the population has already gotten the virus...a fact I don't believe to be true and artificially lowers its death rate. What the Oxford Model does do is to underscore the ability of the virus to spread, which has been greatly underestimated. As a result it greatly underestimates the death rate. There have been studies in semi-perfect isolated conditions that show that show the death rate to be somewhere between .7 and 1.3%. The imperial college model is better for the overall deaths. The Oxford model shows that these cases are unavoidable. The Imperial College has the deaths between 1 and 2 million. Models suck overall anyways, and both models are flawed. They can really only be created by computer algorithms or the more basic stepwise approach which combines several components into both a linear and exponential factor. The two approaches are actually quite similarly flawed. They don't "model" the real world effectively. Go watch some Osterholm videos, he's been studying this **** out of the womb. If you use basic math and know that the death rate is 1% ,25% of the population getting infected would be 800k deaths. This virus isn't going to leave. Even if we suppress it, it will just come back.

K Major · 04-06-2020, 01:55 PM

2020 NFL Draft will proceed in fully virtual format - NFL.com

OldMaid · 04-06-2020, 08:33 PM

Yes. I

do.
This situation has to end one day, some day.
I believe the next two weeks are going to be tough.
May , things start getting back in order.
Teams would have been training now. Working out under the trainers, at least.
There will be a setback for all teams in those things.
It is going to be a faster draft. Faster training camp. It will feel faster .

August, preseason.
It is going to happen.

OldMaid · 04-06-2020, 08:40 PM

Everybody, stay healthy and follow the rules. Yes I am.

SaintsBro · 04-07-2020, 02:21 PM

My prediction.... I think it's gonna start late, in the fall, Octoberish, I think it will be a 12 game season like in the very old old NFL days, and then playoffs and Super Bowl as normal happening in 2021.

That is just my take. I don't think things are gonna be back to normal in time for the season to open. And I don't see them playing with empty stadiums because, a big chunk of the money these guys make is in the concessions and booze and the suites and so forth.

I will be happy to be wrong but that's what I think is gonna happen. The big silent players in this are the insurance companies -- will they let the league have the games, if there is risk of people getting sick and possibly suing the league, if that happens? I find that doubtful. Insurance companies are all about risk, and that is a BIG risk. They don't like unknowns, in fact they despise them.

The other thing to look at, is the big time concert industry. The Stones postponed their tour dates, and they aren't even talking about WHEN they will reschedule...Roger Waters just cancelled his tour, and that was for July and August, in big venues similar to basketball, hockey, and NFL stadiums. So if Roger Waters' management is saying that August is a no go, well that's food for thought about the season starting around Labor Day.

Keep an eye on the concert industry, and the insurance industry. As they go, so goes the NFL, I think.

AsylumGuido · 04-07-2020, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by SaintsBro

My prediction.... I think it's gonna start late, in the fall, Octoberish, I think it will be a 12 game season like in the very old old NFL days, and then playoffs and Super Bowl as normal happening in 2021.

That is just my take. I don't think things are gonna be back to normal in time for the season to open. And I don't see them playing with empty stadiums because, a big chunk of the money these guys make is in the concessions and booze and the suites and so forth.

I will be happy to be wrong but that's what I think is gonna happen. The big silent players in this are the insurance companies -- will they let the league have the games, if there is risk of people getting sick and possibly suing the league, if that happens? I find that doubtful. Insurance companies are all about risk, and that is a BIG risk. They don't like unknowns, in fact they despise them.

The other thing to look at, is the big time concert industry. The Stones postponed their tour dates, and they aren't even talking about WHEN they will reschedule...Roger Waters just cancelled his tour, and that was for July and August, in big venues similar to basketball, hockey, and NFL stadiums. So if Roger Waters' management is saying that August is a no go, well that's food for thought about the season starting around Labor Day.

Keep an eye on the concert industry, and the insurance industry. As they go, so goes the NFL, I think.

Concessions, booze and suites are a tiny drop in the overall revenue bucket. Broadcast revenues make up the major portion. As long as games can be telecast then butts are not required to be in seats.

hitta · 04-07-2020, 04:12 PM

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane.

burningmetal · 04-07-2020, 04:22 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane.

You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus.

hitta · 04-07-2020, 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus.

That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop.

Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process.

burningmetal · 04-07-2020, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop.

Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process.

You're way overthinking it. The fact of the matter is that even the projections post "stay at home" have been cut in half, and they are still using worst case scenario. As spring settles in, the virus will keep dying. And HCQ, whether deep state Fauci wants to admit it or not, is working as a treatment.

It's not going to be 100% gone for a while, maybe years. That goes for anything.

Where we agree is that lockdowns are useless. And I know it may sound callous if not taken in context, but those who are dying from covid right now were just as likely to die from the flu. It's just a matter of which virus they got first. That's what the media refuses to acknowledge. But again, there is a treatment that is working to save lives.

04-07-2020, 01:35 AM	#1
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold No, your not using the Oxford model because that is estimating IFR to be 5-6x of the common flu. Your also ignoring the fact that 90% of fatalities have at least 1 per-existing condition. Take this into consideration and factor in that mitigation is occurring, then understand that the US model WAS showing 140-220k deaths mid March which has already been reduced to 80k as of yesterday. Go ahead and provide a link to the model. I linked the projections and actual Oxford model of IFR on page 2 of this thread. Edit: Here is an excerpt if you don’t want to look at the research article. “ We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%. Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.” The Oxford Model has a major flaw in assuming that a large portion of the population has already gotten the virus...a fact I don't believe to be true and artificially lowers its death rate. What the Oxford Model does do is to underscore the ability of the virus to spread, which has been greatly underestimated. As a result it greatly underestimates the death rate. There have been studies in semi-perfect isolated conditions that show that show the death rate to be somewhere between .7 and 1.3%. The imperial college model is better for the overall deaths. The Oxford model shows that these cases are unavoidable. The Imperial College has the deaths between 1 and 2 million. Models suck overall anyways, and both models are flawed. They can really only be created by computer algorithms or the more basic stepwise approach which combines several components into both a linear and exponential factor. The two approaches are actually quite similarly flawed. They don't "model" the real world effectively. Go watch some Osterholm videos, he's been studying this *** out of the womb. If you use basic math and know that the death rate is 1% ,25% of the population getting infected would be 800k deaths. This virus isn't going to leave. Even if we suppress it, it will just come back.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340

04-06-2020, 01:55 PM	#2
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,840 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? 2020 NFL Draft will proceed in fully virtual format - NFL.com

04-06-2020, 08:33 PM	#3
OldMaid Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,919 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Yes. I do. This situation has to end one day, some day. I believe the next two weeks are going to be tough. May , things start getting back in order. Teams would have been training now. Working out under the trainers, at least. There will be a setback for all teams in those things. It is going to be a faster draft. Faster training camp. It will feel faster . August, preseason. It is going to happen.

04-06-2020, 08:40 PM	#4
OldMaid Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,919 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Everybody, stay healthy and follow the rules. Yes I am.

04-07-2020, 02:21 PM	#5
SaintsBro Site Donor Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: in line with my ridiculous CLEAR PLASTIC BAG Posts: 3,650 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? My prediction.... I think it's gonna start late, in the fall, Octoberish, I think it will be a 12 game season like in the very old old NFL days, and then playoffs and Super Bowl as normal happening in 2021. That is just my take. I don't think things are gonna be back to normal in time for the season to open. And I don't see them playing with empty stadiums because, a big chunk of the money these guys make is in the concessions and booze and the suites and so forth. I will be happy to be wrong but that's what I think is gonna happen. The big silent players in this are the insurance companies -- will they let the league have the games, if there is risk of people getting sick and possibly suing the league, if that happens? I find that doubtful. Insurance companies are all about risk, and that is a BIG risk. They don't like unknowns, in fact they despise them. The other thing to look at, is the big time concert industry. The Stones postponed their tour dates, and they aren't even talking about WHEN they will reschedule...Roger Waters just cancelled his tour, and that was for July and August, in big venues similar to basketball, hockey, and NFL stadiums. So if Roger Waters' management is saying that August is a no go, well that's food for thought about the season starting around Labor Day. Keep an eye on the concert industry, and the insurance industry. As they go, so goes the NFL, I think. Rugby Saint II likes this.

04-07-2020, 03:02 PM	#6
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,703	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by SaintsBro My prediction.... I think it's gonna start late, in the fall, Octoberish, I think it will be a 12 game season like in the very old old NFL days, and then playoffs and Super Bowl as normal happening in 2021. That is just my take. I don't think things are gonna be back to normal in time for the season to open. And I don't see them playing with empty stadiums because, a big chunk of the money these guys make is in the concessions and booze and the suites and so forth. I will be happy to be wrong but that's what I think is gonna happen. The big silent players in this are the insurance companies -- will they let the league have the games, if there is risk of people getting sick and possibly suing the league, if that happens? I find that doubtful. Insurance companies are all about risk, and that is a BIG risk. They don't like unknowns, in fact they despise them. The other thing to look at, is the big time concert industry. The Stones postponed their tour dates, and they aren't even talking about WHEN they will reschedule...Roger Waters just cancelled his tour, and that was for July and August, in big venues similar to basketball, hockey, and NFL stadiums. So if Roger Waters' management is saying that August is a no go, well that's food for thought about the season starting around Labor Day. Keep an eye on the concert industry, and the insurance industry. As they go, so goes the NFL, I think. Concessions, booze and suites are a tiny drop in the overall revenue bucket. Broadcast revenues make up the major portion. As long as games can be telecast then butts are not required to be in seats.

04-07-2020, 04:12 PM	#7
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340

04-07-2020, 04:22 PM	#8
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane. You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus.

04-07-2020, 04:35 PM	#9
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by burningmetal You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus. That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop. Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340

04-07-2020, 05:19 PM	#10
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop. Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process. You're way overthinking it. The fact of the matter is that even the projections post "stay at home" have been cut in half, and they are still using worst case scenario. As spring settles in, the virus will keep dying. And HCQ, whether deep state Fauci wants to admit it or not, is working as a treatment. It's not going to be 100% gone for a while, maybe years. That goes for anything. Where we agree is that lockdowns are useless. And I know it may sound callous if not taken in context, but those who are dying from covid right now were just as likely to die from the flu. It's just a matter of which virus they got first. That's what the media refuses to acknowledge. But again, there is a treatment that is working to save lives.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.