Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-07-2020, 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus.

That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop.

Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process.

burningmetal · 04-07-2020, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop.

Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process.

You're way overthinking it. The fact of the matter is that even the projections post "stay at home" have been cut in half, and they are still using worst case scenario. As spring settles in, the virus will keep dying. And HCQ, whether deep state Fauci wants to admit it or not, is working as a treatment.

It's not going to be 100% gone for a while, maybe years. That goes for anything.

Where we agree is that lockdowns are useless. And I know it may sound callous if not taken in context, but those who are dying from covid right now were just as likely to die from the flu. It's just a matter of which virus they got first. That's what the media refuses to acknowledge. But again, there is a treatment that is working to save lives.

04-07-2020, 04:35 PM	#1
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,339	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by burningmetal You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus. That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop. Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,339

04-07-2020, 05:19 PM	#2
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop. Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process. You're way overthinking it. The fact of the matter is that even the projections post "stay at home" have been cut in half, and they are still using worst case scenario. As spring settles in, the virus will keep dying. And HCQ, whether deep state Fauci wants to admit it or not, is working as a treatment. It's not going to be 100% gone for a while, maybe years. That goes for anything. Where we agree is that lockdowns are useless. And I know it may sound callous if not taken in context, but those who are dying from covid right now were just as likely to die from the flu. It's just a matter of which virus they got first. That's what the media refuses to acknowledge. But again, there is a treatment that is working to save lives.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.