Do you see a 2020 season happening?

burningmetal · 04-07-2020, 04:22 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane.

You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus.

04-07-2020, 04:22 PM	#10
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane. You're right, models can seldom be trusted. They are almost always way too HIGH in their estimates. And when I say "almost" always, I am being generous, simply because I haven't seen every predictive model in the history of the world. I can't think of one that was ever accurate or anything but way too high, when it came to a virus.