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Coin Toss???

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by the-commish I can solve that. Just call thing each coin flip (be it HEADS or TAILS). Then you've got to win at least a few of them. Actually that is not true, since the probability is always ...

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Old 11-18-2011, 09:43 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by the-commish View Post
I can solve that. Just call thing each coin flip (be it HEADS or TAILS). Then you've got to win at least a few of them.

Actually that is not true, since the probability is always 50% it makes no difference which side is picked, because it is in a sense as probable that they get 100 tails in a row as it is they get 100 heads in a row or any mix in between.

The coin toss is pure chance (because of the odds and there being no continuity from one toss to another) unless f.e. the gravings they have on the two sides of the coin make it unbalanced so that it affects its trajectory and makes it more probable that it lands a certain side up or that the mechanics of the toss itself somehow makes one outcome more probable than the other. But all those factors being equal - any string of outcomes is as probable as another string of outcomes.

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Old 11-18-2011, 09:56 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Memnoch_TP View Post
That's the dicey thing about coin toss statistics. The mathematical calculations give that string of results a 1:2048 probability, but the results of the previous 11 tosses have no effect on the next toss. So the chances of us losing the next coin toss are not 1:4096, they are 1:2.
Yes, each individual coin toss has to be considered independently, and each should equate to 1:2. However, the chance that we lose 11 straight (or win 11 straight for that matter) is (1 / 2^11). Since 2 to the 11th power is 2048, there was only a 1:2048 chance that a team could lose 11 times in a row.

The fact is that ANY known 1:2 chance over a consecutive 11 series is 1:2048. So the chance that we see in a coin toss result:

T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T:T is 1:2048
H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H:H is 1:2048
H:T:H:T:T:H:T:H:T:T:T is 1:2048

or 11 saints consecutive coin toss wins or losses:

W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W:W is 1:2048
L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L:L is 1:2048 (this is the series that we've experienced)
W:L:W:W:L:W:L:W:L:W:L is 1:2048

If we lose next week, then one could say that there was a 1:4096 chance that we lose 12 straight, but the probability of that one coin toss is still 1:2.

Maybe we should start asking the league to spin the coin instead of tossing it? According to Penn & Teller, a spun coin will land on tails closer to 60% of the time because of the extra metal on the head-side of the coin. Then they just have to let us choose the outcome every time and we should re-gain our edge over time!

Edit: Actually we WILL regain our edge over time, as every other team will eventually lose 11 straight as we did (over millions of years, of course)
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Old 11-18-2011, 10:12 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by pinch View Post
Maybe we should start asking the league to spin the coin instead of tossing it? According to Penn & Teller, a spun coin will land on tails closer to 60% of the time because of the extra metal on the head-side of the coin.

But I think that they use a special "NFL coin," so it won't probably behave in the same way as a "normal coin" would. If I remember correctly it has the NFL emblem on the other side and something football related on the other one as well... or it could be that they have many different alternative variations.
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Old 11-18-2011, 10:15 PM   #34
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My brain just cramped. But I think I now know why I haven't won the lottery. Thanks fellas. lol
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Old 11-18-2011, 10:20 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by FinSaint View Post
But I think that they use a special "NFL coin," so it won't probably behave in the same way as a "normal coin" would. If I remember correctly it has the NFL emblem on the other side and something football related on the other one as well... or it could be that they have many different alternative variations.
Good Point. Maybe we'd have better luck at rock/paper/scissors?
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Old 11-21-2011, 07:40 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by CharityMike View Post
Maybe we should get #58 to do it. Add another thing to the Shanle koolaid drinkers list of reasons to keep him.
LMAO!!!
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Old 11-21-2011, 08:19 AM   #37
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the fact that 52% of teams winning the coin toss win the game is what is known as a coincidence. That margin is too small to consider relevant.

last year we lead the league in first quarter scoring- might be bc we had an extra possession each game

here's another stat for you: Teams that lose 100% of their coin tosses win exactly 70% of their games ( small sample size: 2011 NO Saints
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Old 11-21-2011, 09:22 AM   #38
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I don't mind losing the toss especially at home. Let the defense come out get the crowd into it make a stop and we get great field position to score then we get the ball first to start the 2nd half. It has worked great at home so far.
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Old 11-24-2011, 10:30 AM   #39
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Saints Can't make head or tails out 0-11

New Orleans Saints can't make heads or tails of 0-11 streak - New Orleans Saints Football NFL News - NOLA.com

When the Atlanta Falcons completed a furious fourth-quarter rally to tie the score against the New Orleans Saints and send their Nov. 13 game to overtime, fate, if not momentum, seemingly was on New Orleans' side. The Saints, after all, had lost 10 consecutive coin tosses. Surely this time, with the inimitable Drew Brees making the all-important call, would be different. The odds were in their favor. They were due.
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Old 11-24-2011, 04:06 PM   #40
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Couldn't give a toss, to coin another phrase.

But we can play ball
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