Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 08:38 PM

Originally Posted by SaintGnome

A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft.

Good is subjective. QB’s should be the leader of the team, and most often also the locker room leader. So, I’ll agree to the fact that a “good” QB isn’t ideal. That being said, there are many other positions that aren’t as high profile as the QB who play and make an impact, without being the face of the organization.

You build your team through the draft, fill in the holes with free agency. One without the other is useless. Most drafted players play for their respective teams, and are developed by them. Few fail to make the team or fail to play.

The idea that the draft is a crapshoot, outside of hoping the first round QB you picked is going to make it, is nonsense. You can’t buy a locker-room.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...a-locker-room/

Free agency is critical, so is the draft. The salary cap hits you when you focus on free agent veteran acquisitions too heavily. And it’s painful getting out from under that weight.

SaintGnome · 03-03-2021, 08:59 PM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

Good is subjective.

Is it, really? I'll give you there's a worthy debate on good vs great - Eli vs Payton as an example. Both had successes. Would you also say Ryan Leaf is also vs Peyton also subjective? I don't think so, but believe what you want.

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 09:45 PM

Originally Posted by SaintGnome

Is it, really? I'll give you there's a worthy debate on good vs great - Eli vs Payton as an example. Both had successes. Would you also say Ryan Leaf is also vs Peyton also subjective? I don't think so, but believe what you want.

Comparing one individual player to another individual player on differing teams isn’t a discussion I was in. Different organizations, different personnel strategies, incoming/outgoing coaches, who they are replacing, injuries, sitting behind a starter forever, etc... WAY too many variables to make comparison’s. For example, let’s take Tom Brady. Had the Saints drafted him at 168, instead of him falling to 199, and us picking M Bulger, would Brady have been developed and as successful as he is today? It’s my belief the Saints would have wasted Brady, quite possibly ruining him forever.

I just believe you draft your team, then develop those players. Veteran free agents carry veteran cap hits on their contracts. If you choose to build a team via free agency because you feel they are a more guaranteed option, you’ll find yourself in cap hell quickly. And in all truthiness, being a veteran free agent is no guarantee either. Rookie contracts? Not so expensive. If you have unlimited monies, aka no salary cap, then by all means, build the entire team as if you’re playing Madden 2021. But, that’s not reality. And even if it were..., you can’t buy locker room synergy and chemistry.

jeanpierre · 03-04-2021, 07:46 AM

Subjective or no, the 2018 Draft Class was a sample of what happens when you let failed draft management practices back into the saddle - and Sean still hasn't learned his lesson...

#DoYourJob

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2021, 09:08 AM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

The draft is not a crapshoot, it’s nothing like blackjack. That mentality completely invalidates coaching and the entire evaluation processes. If it’s all luck, which it isn’t, then why have coaches? Why have scouting teams? Just roll with what happens, right, it’s all luck, right? No need to develop players bc my binary belief is they are either good or bad, on day one, right?

It’s not like that at all. In any way, shape or form.

Veteran players come with veteran player costs, and the salary cap isn’t unlimited. There is a ceiling, one in which we are struggling to meet. And one in which veteran free agents will have to be cut.

Sorry, but quite a few others beg to differ. There are dozens more beyond this small smattering.

The NFL Draft is More of a Crapshoot Than an Exact Science
By John Fennelly - 04/26/2017

Philadelphia Eagles: The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot
by Jeffrey Powell 10 months ago

Schneider’s comments reveal what a crapshoot the draft really is
Posted by Mike Florio on April 25, 2018

Crapshoot—The NFL Draft: 1967-2017 Kindle Edition
by David V. Gray (Author)

The 2021 NFL draft is a crapshoot: How investing like Warren Buffett means teams should be aggressive in adding more picks
Bill Barnwell
ESPN Staff Writer

The NFL Draft Is Still a Crapshoot
ALLEN BARRA
APRIL 27, 2012

Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft
barryap
Barry Petchesky
9/24/13 4:00PM

Drafting quarterbacks is the NFL's biggest crapshoot
Dave Birkett Detroit Free Press

It gets more hype than ever, but the NFL draft is still a crapshoot
JOE POSNANSKI APR 22, 2010

For Wharton professor Cade Massey, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot
Massey has come to some surprising conclusions about the event’s methodology and processes
By Daniel Rich 10/14/13 6:15pm

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2021, 09:18 AM

The reason why I used blackjack as an analogy to the NFL draft is because, just like with the draft, a good player knows the odds and can make educated plays based upon those odds, yet until that next card is turned, or that player actually experiences the NFL, there is no way to be confident in the eventual outcome. That turn card could turn that 11 into a 21 or a 15. Or that first couple of years can reveal a player who excels or one that gets kicked to the curb.

jeanpierre · 03-04-2021, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Sorry, but quite a few others beg to differ. There are dozens more beyond this small smattering.

The NFL Draft is More of a Crapshoot Than an Exact Science
By John Fennelly - 04/26/2017

Philadelphia Eagles: The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot
by Jeffrey Powell 10 months ago

Schneider’s comments reveal what a crapshoot the draft really is
Posted by Mike Florio on April 25, 2018

Crapshoot—The NFL Draft: 1967-2017 Kindle Edition
by David V. Gray (Author)

The 2021 NFL draft is a crapshoot: How investing like Warren Buffett means teams should be aggressive in adding more picks
Bill Barnwell
ESPN Staff Writer

The NFL Draft Is Still a Crapshoot
ALLEN BARRA
APRIL 27, 2012

Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft
barryap
Barry Petchesky
9/24/13 4:00PM

Drafting quarterbacks is the NFL's biggest crapshoot
Dave Birkett Detroit Free Press

It gets more hype than ever, but the NFL draft is still a crapshoot
JOE POSNANSKI APR 22, 2010

For Wharton professor Cade Massey, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot
Massey has come to some surprising conclusions about the event’s methodology and processes
By Daniel Rich 10/14/13 6:15pm

IF it's that much a crapshoot, then why are they being compensated? could not anyone do the job?

And why do some teams draft better than others - consistently?

Those articles are BS - that's team management trying to give themselves cover, take the pressure off...

Boston Saint · 03-04-2021, 10:00 AM

Yeah, there is too much invested by organizations for it to be a crapshoot.

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2021, 10:35 AM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

IF it's that much a crapshoot, then why are they being compensated? could not anyone do the job?

And why do some teams draft better than others - consistently?

Those articles are BS - that's team management trying to give themselves cover, take the pressure off...

As I pointed out in my blackjack analogy, not anyone or everyone has the ability to be a good player. The best players in the world are subject to the unknown. It is the same in drafting rookies. There is only so much you can do to determine the future success of a prospect. No doubt those that get paid to do their best know FAR more than any of us. That cannot be disputed regardless of how some fans feel they are more qualified.

But it all still comes down to a great deal of unknowns that are impossible to predetermine. That's where the educated gambles come into play. The professional gambler knows when it is most advantageous to double-down or to split. The same goes for professionals in the draft game when trading up or trading down. In either case the final result is unknown until after the move. The identification of the success or failure simply comes quite a bit quicker in the cards.

There have been far too many "sure thing" prospects that have petered out for the draft to be anything more than a crapshoot, or if you please, a game of blackjack.

Why do some teams seem to draft better? They have a combination of more knowledge and more fortune. That face card turns at times more than that four. But even the very best at the draft craps out on occasions.

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2021, 10:40 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Yeah, there is too much invested by organizations for it to be a crapshoot.

It doesn't matter how much money you throw at it, nobody knows exactly how a 20 year old kid will perform three or four years from now. If they did there would never be a market for free agents.

View Poll Results: After three seasons, what grade do you give the Saints for the 2018 Draft Haul?
A	1	7.69%
B	3	23.08%
C	2	15.38%
D	5	38.46%
F	2	15.38%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

03-03-2021, 08:38 PM	#41
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by SaintGnome A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft. Good is subjective. QB’s should be the leader of the team, and most often also the locker room leader. So, I’ll agree to the fact that a “good” QB isn’t ideal. That being said, there are many other positions that aren’t as high profile as the QB who play and make an impact, without being the face of the organization. You build your team through the draft, fill in the holes with free agency. One without the other is useless. Most drafted players play for their respective teams, and are developed by them. Few fail to make the team or fail to play. The idea that the draft is a crapshoot, outside of hoping the first round QB you picked is going to make it, is nonsense. You can’t buy a locker-room. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...a-locker-room/ Free agency is critical, so is the draft. The salary cap hits you when you focus on free agent veteran acquisitions too heavily. And it’s painful getting out from under that weight.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-03-2021, 08:59 PM	#42
SaintGnome 500th Post Join Date: Jul 2017 Location: Bradenton,FL Posts: 642	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 Good is subjective. Is it, really? I'll give you there's a worthy debate on good vs great - Eli vs Payton as an example. Both had successes. Would you also say Ryan Leaf is also vs Peyton also subjective? I don't think so, but believe what you want. AsylumGuido likes this.

03-03-2021, 09:45 PM	#43
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by SaintGnome Is it, really? I'll give you there's a worthy debate on good vs great - Eli vs Payton as an example. Both had successes. Would you also say Ryan Leaf is also vs Peyton also subjective? I don't think so, but believe what you want. Comparing one individual player to another individual player on differing teams isn’t a discussion I was in. Different organizations, different personnel strategies, incoming/outgoing coaches, who they are replacing, injuries, sitting behind a starter forever, etc... WAY too many variables to make comparison’s. For example, let’s take Tom Brady. Had the Saints drafted him at 168, instead of him falling to 199, and us picking M Bulger, would Brady have been developed and as successful as he is today? It’s my belief the Saints would have wasted Brady, quite possibly ruining him forever. I just believe you draft your team, then develop those players. Veteran free agents carry veteran cap hits on their contracts. If you choose to build a team via free agency because you feel they are a more guaranteed option, you’ll find yourself in cap hell quickly. And in all truthiness, being a veteran free agent is no guarantee either. Rookie contracts? Not so expensive. If you have unlimited monies, aka no salary cap, then by all means, build the entire team as if you’re playing Madden 2021. But, that’s not reality. And even if it were..., you can’t buy locker room synergy and chemistry. K Major and Boston Saint like this.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-04-2021, 07:46 AM	#44
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Subjective or no, the 2018 Draft Class was a sample of what happens when you let failed draft management practices back into the saddle - and Sean still hasn't learned his lesson... #DoYourJob gosaints1 and K Major like this.

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03-04-2021, 09:08 AM	#45
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 The draft is not a crapshoot, it’s nothing like blackjack. That mentality completely invalidates coaching and the entire evaluation processes. If it’s all luck, which it isn’t, then why have coaches? Why have scouting teams? Just roll with what happens, right, it’s all luck, right? No need to develop players bc my binary belief is they are either good or bad, on day one, right? It’s not like that at all. In any way, shape or form. Veteran players come with veteran player costs, and the salary cap isn’t unlimited. There is a ceiling, one in which we are struggling to meet. And one in which veteran free agents will have to be cut. Sorry, but quite a few others beg to differ. There are dozens more beyond this small smattering. The NFL Draft is More of a Crapshoot Than an Exact Science By John Fennelly - 04/26/2017 Philadelphia Eagles: The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot by Jeffrey Powell 10 months ago Schneider’s comments reveal what a crapshoot the draft really is Posted by Mike Florio on April 25, 2018 Crapshoot—The NFL Draft: 1967-2017 Kindle Edition by David V. Gray (Author) The 2021 NFL draft is a crapshoot: How investing like Warren Buffett means teams should be aggressive in adding more picks Bill Barnwell ESPN Staff Writer The NFL Draft Is Still a Crapshoot ALLEN BARRA APRIL 27, 2012 Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft barryap Barry Petchesky 9/24/13 4:00PM Drafting quarterbacks is the NFL's biggest crapshoot Dave Birkett Detroit Free Press It gets more hype than ever, but the NFL draft is still a crapshoot JOE POSNANSKI APR 22, 2010 For Wharton professor Cade Massey, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot Massey has come to some surprising conclusions about the event’s methodology and processes By Daniel Rich 10/14/13 6:15pm
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-04-2021, 09:18 AM	#46
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire The reason why I used blackjack as an analogy to the NFL draft is because, just like with the draft, a good player knows the odds and can make educated plays based upon those odds, yet until that next card is turned, or that player actually experiences the NFL, there is no way to be confident in the eventual outcome. That turn card could turn that 11 into a 21 or a 15. Or that first couple of years can reveal a player who excels or one that gets kicked to the curb.

03-04-2021, 09:49 AM	#47
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Sorry, but quite a few others beg to differ. There are dozens more beyond this small smattering. The NFL Draft is More of a Crapshoot Than an Exact Science By John Fennelly - 04/26/2017 Philadelphia Eagles: The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot by Jeffrey Powell 10 months ago Schneider’s comments reveal what a crapshoot the draft really is Posted by Mike Florio on April 25, 2018 Crapshoot—The NFL Draft: 1967-2017 Kindle Edition by David V. Gray (Author) The 2021 NFL draft is a crapshoot: How investing like Warren Buffett means teams should be aggressive in adding more picks Bill Barnwell ESPN Staff Writer The NFL Draft Is Still a Crapshoot ALLEN BARRA APRIL 27, 2012 Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft barryap Barry Petchesky 9/24/13 4:00PM Drafting quarterbacks is the NFL's biggest crapshoot Dave Birkett Detroit Free Press It gets more hype than ever, but the NFL draft is still a crapshoot JOE POSNANSKI APR 22, 2010 For Wharton professor Cade Massey, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot Massey has come to some surprising conclusions about the event’s methodology and processes By Daniel Rich 10/14/13 6:15pm IF it's that much a crapshoot, then why are they being compensated? could not anyone do the job? And why do some teams draft better than others - consistently? Those articles are BS - that's team management trying to give themselves cover, take the pressure off... K Major and Boston Saint like this.

03-04-2021, 10:00 AM	#48
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Yeah, there is too much invested by organizations for it to be a crapshoot.

03-04-2021, 10:35 AM	#49
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by jeanpierre IF it's that much a crapshoot, then why are they being compensated? could not anyone do the job? And why do some teams draft better than others - consistently? Those articles are BS - that's team management trying to give themselves cover, take the pressure off... As I pointed out in my blackjack analogy, not anyone or everyone has the ability to be a good player. The best players in the world are subject to the unknown. It is the same in drafting rookies. There is only so much you can do to determine the future success of a prospect. No doubt those that get paid to do their best know FAR more than any of us. That cannot be disputed regardless of how some fans feel they are more qualified. But it all still comes down to a great deal of unknowns that are impossible to predetermine. That's where the educated gambles come into play. The professional gambler knows when it is most advantageous to double-down or to split. The same goes for professionals in the draft game when trading up or trading down. In either case the final result is unknown until after the move. The identification of the success or failure simply comes quite a bit quicker in the cards. There have been far too many "sure thing" prospects that have petered out for the draft to be anything more than a crapshoot, or if you please, a game of blackjack. Why do some teams seem to draft better? They have a combination of more knowledge and more fortune. That face card turns at times more than that four. But even the very best at the draft craps out on occasions.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-04-2021, 10:40 AM	#50
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint Yeah, there is too much invested by organizations for it to be a crapshoot. It doesn't matter how much money you throw at it, nobody knows exactly how a 20 year old kid will perform three or four years from now. If they did there would never be a market for free agents.