Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 04:18 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

...Another way to fill those holes is with proven commodities via free agency. Look at what Tampa Bay did. They supplemented starting lineups on both sides of the ball with key FA's and other veterans that earned them the Super Bowl...

It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019

Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting.
Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White.
Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft

Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards.
Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.

Boston Saint · 03-03-2021, 04:24 PM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019

Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting.
Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White.
Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft

Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards.
Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.

By that logic, Harris getting hurt after 2 big returns and Cook fumbling in Bucs territory in the third quarter while up by 7 were significantly more important than Tampa’s D.

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Guido, you are shifting the goal posts to suit your argument. In post # 4 you mention what a crapshoot the draft is. Then you switch to UDFA later in the thread to support your point when you are shown wrong. Have the character to at least stick to a point. I know you have said you are proud of being an a-hole, but don’t flaunt it.

The draft IS a crap shoot. Just because drafted players make the initial roster doesn't mean that they are going to be assured of being a success. Note the title of this thread "Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in". That just shows what a crapshoot it actually is when you have to give it years before being able to judge the success.

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

By that logic, Harris getting hurt after 2 big returns and Cook fumbling in Bucs territory in the third quarter while up by 7 were significantly more important than Tampa’s D.

Injuries will always be a factor. Tom Brady was playing hurt also, along with almost everyone else still alive in the playoffs. And yes, Cooks fumble was HUGE.

That being said, after the fumble, and subsequent TB touchdown, the score was 20-20, tie game. What were the results of our next three offensive possessions?

5 plays, 12 yards, Punt

5 plays, 13 yards, Int

4 plays, 10 yards, Int.

Giving the defense extremely short fields to defend, while not being able to move the ball offensively at all, is not a formula for winning football in the 4th quarter of a playoff game.

Just can’t do it.

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019

Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting.
Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White.
Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft

Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards.
Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.

As another example let's look at a team we are both familiar with ... the New Orleans Saints. The 2009 team that went all the way was led by these starters ... Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, David Thomas, Jonathon Goodwin, Scott Fujita, Jonathon Vilma, Scott Shanle, Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, and Remi Ayodele none of whom were drafted by the Saints. And don't forget Heath Evans and Mike Bell, while not starters like the others they were still important contributors.

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 05:38 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

As another example let's look at a team we are both familiar with ... the New Orleans Saints. The 2009 team that went all the way was led by these starters ... Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, David Thomas, Jonathon Goodwin, Scott Fujita, Jonathon Vilma, Scott Shanle, Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, and Remi Ayodele none of whom were drafted by the Saints. And don't forget Heath Evans and Mike Bell, while not starters like the others they were still important contributors.

Once again, you’re cherry picking players. I’ve never said free agents were unimportant, they clearly are. I just say the draft is EQUALLY as important. So, 2009, let’s look at that roster from the other side:

Carl Nicks, drafted by the Saints 2008. Starting LG
Jermon Bushrod, drafted by the Saints 2007. Starting LT
Jahri Evans, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting RG
Jon Stinchcomb, drafted by the Saints 2003. Starting RT
Reggie Bush, drafted by the Saints 2006. Staring RB
M. Colston, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting WR1
D. Henderson, drafted by the Saint 2004. Starting WR2

And let’s not forget Tracy Porter, drafted by the Saints 2008, starting RCB. His int’s were critical. Heck, that was Malcolm Jenkins rookie year, drafted by the Saints in 2009, he only played in six games but he had an int and other stats, he contributed.

The draft is equally as critical as signing free agents are. And that 2009 team wasn’t wholly built on free agents. Draft..., then Develop; it’s equally as critical as finding veteran free agents.

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

Once again, you’re cherry picking players. I’ve never said free agents were unimportant, they clearly are. I just say the draft is EQUALLY as important. So, 2009, let’s look at that roster from the other side:

Carl Nicks, drafted by the Saints 2008. Starting LG
Jermon Bushrod, drafted by the Saints 2007. Starting LT
Jahri Evans, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting RG
Jon Stinchcomb, drafted by the Saints 2003. Starting RT
Reggie Bush, drafted by the Saints 2006. Staring RB
M. Colston, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting WR1
D. Henderson, drafted by the Saint 2004. Starting WR2

And let’s not forget Tracy Porter, drafted by the Saints 2008, starting RCB. His int’s were critical. Heck, that was Malcolm Jenkins rookie year, drafted by the Saints in 2009, he only played in six games but he had an int and other stats, he contributed.

The draft is equally as critical as signing free agents are. And that 2009 team wasn’t wholly built on free agents. Draft..., then Develop; it’s equally as critical as finding veteran free agents.

So, on that 2009 squad there were seven offensive starters drafted over the seven years from 2003 through 2009. One per year (on average) on that side of the ball.

What's the defensive side look like?

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 06:21 PM

I've never said that the draft isn't important. You can hit a jackpot here or there just like any other game of chance. The return is very uncertain.

Using the same sort of analogies the draft is in fact just like blackjack. You know the odds and play them. The rewards are probably very similar in nature.

Free agency, however, is more like investing in 401-K's or McDonald's stock. The returns are far more predictive because of proven performance histories.

You can play both, but at what ratio?

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 07:24 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

I've never said that the draft isn't important. You can hit a jackpot here or there just like any other game of chance. The return is very uncertain.

Using the same sort of analogies the draft is in fact just like blackjack. You know the odds and play them. The rewards are probably very similar in nature.

Free agency, however, is more like investing in 401-K's or McDonald's stock. The returns are far more predictive because of proven performance histories.

You can play both, but at what ratio?

The draft is not a crapshoot, it’s nothing like blackjack. That mentality completely invalidates coaching and the entire evaluation processes. If it’s all luck, which it isn’t, then why have coaches? Why have scouting teams? Just roll with what happens, right, it’s all luck, right? No need to develop players bc my binary belief is they are either good or bad, on day one, right?

It’s not like that at all. In any way, shape or form.

Veteran players come with veteran player costs, and the salary cap isn’t unlimited. There is a ceiling, one in which we are struggling to meet. And one in which veteran free agents will have to be cut.

SaintGnome · 03-03-2021, 07:37 PM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

In rounds 1-5, the vast majority of draft choices make their team AND contribute on the field, at some point that year, if nothing more other than depth and giving a breather to the starting 11’s. That depth is critical!

“Average”, “Good”, “Great” and “Legendary” are subjective statements, and mean absolutely nothing to the fundamental statistics. And the fundamental statistics clearly indicate that drafted players make their rosters, and play during that year.

A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft.

View Poll Results: After three seasons, what grade do you give the Saints for the 2018 Draft Haul?
A	1	7.69%
B	3	23.08%
C	2	15.38%
D	5	38.46%
F	2	15.38%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

03-03-2021, 04:18 PM	#31
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido ...Another way to fill those holes is with proven commodities via free agency. Look at what Tampa Bay did. They supplemented starting lineups on both sides of the ball with key FA's and other veterans that earned them the Super Bowl... It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019 Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting. Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft. Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White. Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards. Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft. A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-03-2021, 04:24 PM	#32
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019 Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting. Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft. Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White. Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards. Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft. A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game. By that logic, Harris getting hurt after 2 big returns and Cook fumbling in Bucs territory in the third quarter while up by 7 were significantly more important than Tampa’s D.

03-03-2021, 04:43 PM	#33
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,172	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint Guido, you are shifting the goal posts to suit your argument. In post # 4 you mention what a crapshoot the draft is. Then you switch to UDFA later in the thread to support your point when you are shown wrong. Have the character to at least stick to a point. I know you have said you are proud of being an a-hole, but don’t flaunt it. The draft IS a crap shoot. Just because drafted players make the initial roster doesn't mean that they are going to be assured of being a success. Note the title of this thread "Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in". That just shows what a crapshoot it actually is when you have to give it years before being able to judge the success.

03-03-2021, 04:51 PM	#34
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint By that logic, Harris getting hurt after 2 big returns and Cook fumbling in Bucs territory in the third quarter while up by 7 were significantly more important than Tampa’s D. Injuries will always be a factor. Tom Brady was playing hurt also, along with almost everyone else still alive in the playoffs. And yes, Cooks fumble was HUGE. That being said, after the fumble, and subsequent TB touchdown, the score was 20-20, tie game. What were the results of our next three offensive possessions? 5 plays, 12 yards, Punt 5 plays, 13 yards, Int 4 plays, 10 yards, Int. Giving the defense extremely short fields to defend, while not being able to move the ball offensively at all, is not a formula for winning football in the 4th quarter of a playoff game. Just can’t do it.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

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03-03-2021, 04:56 PM	#35
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,172	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019 Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting. Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft. Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White. Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards. Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft. A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game. As another example let's look at a team we are both familiar with ... the New Orleans Saints. The 2009 team that went all the way was led by these starters ... Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, David Thomas, Jonathon Goodwin, Scott Fujita, Jonathon Vilma, Scott Shanle, Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, and Remi Ayodele none of whom were drafted by the Saints. And don't forget Heath Evans and Mike Bell, while not starters like the others they were still important contributors.

03-03-2021, 05:38 PM	#36
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido As another example let's look at a team we are both familiar with ... the New Orleans Saints. The 2009 team that went all the way was led by these starters ... Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, David Thomas, Jonathon Goodwin, Scott Fujita, Jonathon Vilma, Scott Shanle, Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, and Remi Ayodele none of whom were drafted by the Saints. And don't forget Heath Evans and Mike Bell, while not starters like the others they were still important contributors. Once again, you’re cherry picking players. I’ve never said free agents were unimportant, they clearly are. I just say the draft is EQUALLY as important. So, 2009, let’s look at that roster from the other side: Carl Nicks, drafted by the Saints 2008. Starting LG Jermon Bushrod, drafted by the Saints 2007. Starting LT Jahri Evans, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting RG Jon Stinchcomb, drafted by the Saints 2003. Starting RT Reggie Bush, drafted by the Saints 2006. Staring RB M. Colston, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting WR1 D. Henderson, drafted by the Saint 2004. Starting WR2 And let’s not forget Tracy Porter, drafted by the Saints 2008, starting RCB. His int’s were critical. Heck, that was Malcolm Jenkins rookie year, drafted by the Saints in 2009, he only played in six games but he had an int and other stats, he contributed. The draft is equally as critical as signing free agents are. And that 2009 team wasn’t wholly built on free agents. Draft..., then Develop; it’s equally as critical as finding veteran free agents.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-03-2021, 06:09 PM	#37
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,172	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 Once again, you’re cherry picking players. I’ve never said free agents were unimportant, they clearly are. I just say the draft is EQUALLY as important. So, 2009, let’s look at that roster from the other side: Carl Nicks, drafted by the Saints 2008. Starting LG Jermon Bushrod, drafted by the Saints 2007. Starting LT Jahri Evans, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting RG Jon Stinchcomb, drafted by the Saints 2003. Starting RT Reggie Bush, drafted by the Saints 2006. Staring RB M. Colston, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting WR1 D. Henderson, drafted by the Saint 2004. Starting WR2 And let’s not forget Tracy Porter, drafted by the Saints 2008, starting RCB. His int’s were critical. Heck, that was Malcolm Jenkins rookie year, drafted by the Saints in 2009, he only played in six games but he had an int and other stats, he contributed. The draft is equally as critical as signing free agents are. And that 2009 team wasn’t wholly built on free agents. Draft..., then Develop; it’s equally as critical as finding veteran free agents. So, on that 2009 squad there were seven offensive starters drafted over the seven years from 2003 through 2009. One per year (on average) on that side of the ball. What's the defensive side look like?

03-03-2021, 06:21 PM	#38
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,172	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire I've never said that the draft isn't important. You can hit a jackpot here or there just like any other game of chance. The return is very uncertain. Using the same sort of analogies the draft is in fact just like blackjack. You know the odds and play them. The rewards are probably very similar in nature. Free agency, however, is more like investing in 401-K's or McDonald's stock. The returns are far more predictive because of proven performance histories. You can play both, but at what ratio?

03-03-2021, 07:24 PM	#39
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I've never said that the draft isn't important. You can hit a jackpot here or there just like any other game of chance. The return is very uncertain. Using the same sort of analogies the draft is in fact just like blackjack. You know the odds and play them. The rewards are probably very similar in nature. Free agency, however, is more like investing in 401-K's or McDonald's stock. The returns are far more predictive because of proven performance histories. You can play both, but at what ratio? The draft is not a crapshoot, it’s nothing like blackjack. That mentality completely invalidates coaching and the entire evaluation processes. If it’s all luck, which it isn’t, then why have coaches? Why have scouting teams? Just roll with what happens, right, it’s all luck, right? No need to develop players bc my binary belief is they are either good or bad, on day one, right? It’s not like that at all. In any way, shape or form. Veteran players come with veteran player costs, and the salary cap isn’t unlimited. There is a ceiling, one in which we are struggling to meet. And one in which veteran free agents will have to be cut.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-03-2021, 07:37 PM	#40
SaintGnome 500th Post Join Date: Jul 2017 Location: Bradenton,FL Posts: 642	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 In rounds 1-5, the vast majority of draft choices make their team AND contribute on the field, at some point that year, if nothing more other than depth and giving a breather to the starting 11’s. That depth is critical! “Average”, “Good”, “Great” and “Legendary” are subjective statements, and mean absolutely nothing to the fundamental statistics. And the fundamental statistics clearly indicate that drafted players make their rosters, and play during that year. A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft. AsylumGuido likes this.